'Your World' on global impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict

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‘Ripple effect’ will be significant if Russia invades Ukraine

Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst discusses alleged ‘false flag’ operations by Russia in Ukraine and what countries in Eastern Europe could be affected by possible invasion on ‘Your World.’

This is a rush transcript from "Your World," February 18, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

CHARLES PAYNE, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: You're looking live at the White House.

President Joe Biden expected to deliver an update any moment on the situation with Russia and Ukraine, as reports indicate an invasion could be imminent. The president just holding a crucial call with NATO allies. Is there any chance to stop an attack?

Welcome, everyone. I'm Charles Payne, in for Neil Cavuto, and this is "Your World."

And the world is watching what happens next and what the president is about to say, as are Bret Baier and retired Four-Star General Jack Keane.

We begin with Bret Baier, anchor of "Special Report."

Bret, what do you expect the president to say?

BRET BAIER, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: The president just got off a phone call with NATO allies.

And we are likely, Charles, going to hear that message that you heard from the vice president and also the secretary of state in the defense conference in Munich, and that is unity, standing in solidarity against what is expected to be an invasion any day now.

You're already starting to see some action in Eastern Ukraine. You just heard Jennifer Griffin describe some of that. And the Russian separatists, the people who are loyal to Russia inside Ukraine, it's believed, is a part of this whole mechanism that Putin may activate to start a war that makes it look like he's acting in defense, when, in reality, he's acting as the aggressor.

PAYNE: Bret, President Biden has been very active, appearing on television numerous times. And you can't help but to think that this is in contrast to what happened with the Afghan withdrawal.

It's really important for this administration to get this right.

BAIER: Yes, I mean, it's a big issue.

It's apples and oranges as far as the type of conflict and what you're dealing with. However, you're right. Politically, I think the lessons of Afghanistan and what happened and how it happened, this administration is trying really hard not to do that. They have started the warnings two weeks ago about Americans getting out of Ukraine.

And I think you're going to see the president kind of lay it out for the American people that there could be threats to the U.S., specifically on the cybersecurity front, that Americans need to be aware of.

PAYNE: What happens if diplomacy doesn't work? It feels and most of the messaging has been that maybe it's too late for that, maybe it cannot work, Vladimir Putin having his own agenda.

So what would the messaging be from there?

BAIER: The messaging would be severe economic sanctions, sanctions that really struck at Russia.

Now, a lot of experts will tell you that Putin probably baked all that in the cake. If he makes this move, and he does move forward, he's probably not fearing sanctions. But that will be the message from President Biden and NATO allies, that they're not going to let this slide.

PAYNE: On the political side, and dovetails with that a lot, is, of course, the Biden administration's policies toward crude oil, the war on fossil fuels, which helped play a role in the sky-high prices right now around the world, which many say have been able to pay -- help pay for this potential invasion.

Do you think there would be any pivot on that?

BAIER: Well, there's going to be an acknowledgement that people are going to feel it.

I mean, if there is a war, we have already seen prices spike, but it will probably increase. And there may be a push for some domestic relief. There's already talk on Capitol Hill, Charles, about some gas tax relief on the federal level. Don't know if that has a chance of passing. But the president definitely would acknowledge the feeling of average Americans as they go to the gas pump.

PAYNE: One of the clear victories, it appears, already has been a strengthened and more united NATO. You have mentioned that President Biden has talked with his counterparts around the world. He's convened these meetings.

Is that something that we can take out of this, do you think, and really continue to push forward with it?

BAIER: Yes, I -- listen, all of the officials in the administration had been talking about how everybody's singing from the same sheet of music.

I think Germany is a little bit of an outlier, in that we don't know fully how they're going to deal with the energy with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. However, the administration, President Biden are saying this is all coming together.

President Biden has said, if Russia invades, that Nord Stream 2, the pipeline that provides energy to Germany, is going to come to an end, that will not go online. We haven't heard the Germans say that specifically. But they're saying that there's unity in the NATO leaders.

PAYNE: So, it's just now -- just, for us, it's watching the clock, seeing what happens next, pushing diplomacy to the very last minute, and continue messaging.

How important is it that the president and the White House continue to speak to the American people until we get some sort of clear resolution here?

BAIER: You know, he's speaking to the American people, yes, but he's also speaking to Vladimir Putin.

And any message that comes out of the White House today is being transmitted directly to Vladimir Putin. And that's some of the messaging that I -- the reason why he's going out, I think, as much as he is.

There's not a lot of back channel here. It is through the allied leaders, the NATO leaders who have met with Putin, who are signaling to him that diplomacy can go up to the last minute. But there will be a severe threat, I bet, issued in a few minutes.

PAYNE: Bret, thank you very much. If you can stand by, I would like to come back to you.

In the meantime, the big question, of course, is, can a Russian invasion still be avoided?

With me now, General Jack Keane. He is a retired four-star general, also chairman of the Institute for the Study of War, and FOX News senior strategic analyst.

That is the big question, General. We keep hearing the administration and others involved saying, don't give up on diplomacy. But is there a chance it might still work?

JACK KEANE, FOX NEWS SENIOR STRATEGIC ANALYST: Well, I think those -- it's pretty remote at this point.

I mean, the senior government officials are privately saying that Russia is going to attack, that the off-ramp for diplomacy, the only way that could possibly happen at this point is just because Putin decides to do that. But people don't see the evidence that that's going to take place, largely because of what he is doing with the disposition and deployment of his forces.

We have exquisite intelligence on what is taking place out here. Tracking what an army does on a battlefield, Charles, is quite easy to do for a technology-based intelligence capability that the United States has. And we're tracking that. We're not only taking pictures of it, but we're listening to their operational nets, their tactical nets, et cetera.

So we got a sense of what they're doing. And if they move out of those administrative motor parks that we have been taking commercial satellite photos of, and begin to move into assembly areas, where they get up-gunned and they get gassed, and then they move into attack positions, that's telling you something.

And, clearly, we are monitoring all of that activity.

PAYNE: To that point, General, I heard reports that now the manpower, the Russian manpower, up to 190,000.

And to put it in perspective, this is the largest assembly of a military force since World War II. I mean, this is major. For people who really aren't paying attention, this is a potentially a major military showdown.

KEANE: Oh, yes, there's no doubt about that.

And, literally, warfare has changed, Charles, dramatically since World War II. I mean, we had about 157,000 in the Normandy invasion, but we had 7,000 ships out there with landing craft and about 3,000 aircraft. And in the 2003 invasion in Iraq, we had about 177,000 as an invasion force with air supporting it.

What we have here certainly is a ground force somewhere in the neighborhood of 170,000, 180,000-plus. But the precision nature of the weapons we're using and the standoff capabilities they have, have dramatically changed since World War II.

So, in the pre-assault fires phase that would come before the ground invasion, Russia will attack with air, missiles and rocket artillery. Those missiles can travel actually thousands of miles with an extraordinary accuracy landing on a target. And those missiles will be cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

He's got bombers and fighter aircraft, just like we in the United States have, that have enormous standoff capability to deliver very accurate fires. While the tanks and other vehicles are very similar to what we had in World War II, even those vehicles, those tank munitions, they can fire out thousands of meters, vs. hundreds of meters.

So warfare has changed. It's significantly more lethal than what it has ever been. And it's considerably more precise in the use of the weapons. And many of our standoff weapons themselves.

PAYNE: That brings us to the Ukrainians being able to defend themselves.

I have heard you on this air applauding the Biden administration for the actions that they have taken. Initially, perhaps they were slow to get the Ukrainian military some defense weapons.

How long or could they potentially hold off this advanced Russian army that you just described?

KEANE: Yes, not very long.

I mean, they are absolutely outmatched. They have significant resolve and will. And we saw what happened in Afghanistan with an army that lost its resolve and will. So they will fight.

But, listen, they have no defense at all against any of Russia's missiles. Think of that.

PAYNE: Wow.

KEANE: That's quite extraordinary.

They have hardly any defense against all of Russia's 500 combat aircraft that they have. They just got recently some Stinger shoulder-fired air defense systems from the Baltics. They wanted these air defense missiles and air defense systems and anti-ship systems years ago from United States.

PAYNE: Wow.

KEANE: They certainly wanted it back in March, when they -- when the Russians came on their border with 70,000 troops. We gave them none of that. We gave them some anti-tank weapons and some small arms.

So, here's -- my frustration has been this all along. I understand, we're not going to put troop -- U.S. troops on the ground to fight with the Ukrainians, because they're not a NATO country. But we also said, but we're going to help them defend themselves. And that's what the Ukrainians want. They didn't want our troops on the ground.

But if that's the mission, then why didn't we go all in and give them all of those capabilities that -- where they -- it still would not be a fair fight, but where they could impose some costs on the Russians and pause them to think a little bit, well, wait a second here. These casualties are going to go up significantly. We're going to lose aircraft. We have the potential to lose ships, et cetera.

And they -- and Putin doesn't want a lot of casualties in this campaign. He's expecting this to go quickly and not take a lot of casualties home to the Russian people.

PAYNE: General, real quick, this nuclear exercise that was moved up, what's the purpose of that? Is this an intimidation tactic?

KEANE: Yes, pretty much, Charles.

I mean, this is normally done in October. It's done every year. They are just exercising their strategic nuclear forces. He moved it to this date for obvious reasons. Beijing Olympics closed. It's the day after. He's going to be in a national military command center at the time with Lukashenko.

I'm not saying the attack begins tomorrow. But he's in a perfect place to do it.

PAYNE: Right.

KEANE: And I don't know why the president of Ukraine is even thinking that he would leave the country while we're in this invasion window, because, if Putin invades, the first thing he does is take control of the airspace, Charles.

PAYNE: Yes.

KEANE: That's just basic 101. And Zelensky would never be able to get back in.

PAYNE: General Keane, please stand by. And great information. And I want to come back to you.

But General Keane, of course, not the only one concerned. NATO allies also worried Ukrainian President Zelensky leaving this country this weekend, this to attend that Munich Security Conference in Germany.

To Jennifer Griffin at the Pentagon.

So, Jennifer, what are you hearing?

JENNIFER GRIFFIN, FOX NEWS NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, Charles, very grave concern right now that all of the pieces for a large-scale invasion are in position.

We have commercial satellite imagery. You don't have to have specialized intelligence to know what has been arrayed on Ukraine's borders. You have up to 190,000 troops, but it's also the Iskander missile units. It's the numbers of warplanes, fourth- and fifth-generation warplanes.

It's the -- all of the tanks that have been put into position. And then, of course, all eyes will be on those nuclear exercises this weekend when Putin is there. But it's also Vladimir Putin's words themselves.

We just heard that Vladimir Putin has called up the Russian reserves. We were always told to look for that as a possible indication that he would need an occupation force if he were to go ahead with the invasion.

We see him standing next to Lukashenko of Belarus. And now there's some indication that Russia will leave military equipment behind beyond the February 20 timeline, when those exercises, so-called exercises, were supposed to end with 30,000 Russian troops in Belarus just 60 miles from Kyiv up on the border in Belarus.

We saw that pontoon bridge that was -- that appeared in satellite images on a river that is near the Ukraine-Belarus border. That is the direction that tanks would be moving if they were to cross into Ukraine.

These are all indicators. But, more importantly ,what we have seen today is an uptick of disinformation, disinformation in the Donbass region. Everyone should be noticing and watching what happens in the Donbass region. The Russian separatist leader called on all Russians to leave that area.

And Vladimir Putin suggested that he will make preparations for those Russians fleeing the Donbass area into Russia, that he will have payments for them, that he's setting up housing for them.

This is all part of the disinformation inside Russia to make it look like there's a pretense, a reason to go into Ukraine. You have heard President Putin talking about genocide, targeting Russians in the Donbass area. There were some reports of mass graves that we're told were fake in recent days.

So, this uptick in attacks along the line of control in Donbass, that is being noted here at the Pentagon, the uptick in disinformation. This is all part of laying the groundwork for what certainly looks like -- and, if you believe President Biden ,he said a major invasion could come in the coming days.

Oh, one more point, Charles, looking at the week ahead. We just heard that Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken will meet on Wednesday, February 23, that they -- that Lavrov accepted Blinken's invitation. That day is significant. That is Red Army Day, a very significant day for the Russian military. It wouldn't be beyond the Russians to conduct an invasion and then also talk at the same time.

That is something they have done in the past. So that does not indicate that no invasion is in the works. And then also, February 22, historically, if you look back at 2014, during the Maidan Revolution, that was a humiliating day for Vladimir Putin, because his puppet that he tried to insert at that time, Viktor Yanukovych, he fled to Moscow.

And the Ukrainian people rose up and pushed him out. And that was a frustrating moment for Vladimir Putin, who hoped that he could control Ukraine without having to invade back in 2014. So, all of these indicators, all of these dates are very important to Vladimir Putin.

PAYNE: And to that point, Jennifer, in an interview with The Economist about the meeting that Olaf Scholz had with Vladimir Putin, they brought up 2014 and the Minsk accords.

And, apparently -- I don't know if this is on the negotiating table, but the request for an autonomous region there, could that be something that they're negotiating now in the diplomatic process?

GRIFFIN: I don't think so.

First of all, that's not for -- that is not -- NATO has been very clear, President Biden has been very clear, Antony Blinken has been very clear that Ukraine is a sovereign territory. It is not for NATO or any of the European presidents or prime ministers who've made their way to Moscow in recent days -- they have not been cutting deals with Vladimir Putin.

Everybody knows what happens when you appease a leader like Vladimir Putin. The kind of negotiations, there have been negotiations about confidence- building measures, weapons inspections.

You heard that the -- in the papers that have been exchanged between Moscow and the State Department, there have been -- there have been -- but the principal demands of Russia, the maximalist demands, if you will, that NATO and Georgia never be given NATO membership, that NATO rolls back to the 1997 membership and essentially pulls out of Eastern Europe, those are not going to be met.

PAYNE: Yes.

GRIFFIN: That kind of -- we have already heard that from the leaders.

And, right now -- and I heard you talking about the Afghan -- NATO and Afghanistan and the Afghan pullout. This is a very different situation. And, if anything, you could argue that the U.S., the Biden administration, and the NATO allies learned something from that Afghan -- the disastrous Afghan withdrawal and the way it was handled.

And, right now, what we are seeing and I'm seeing behind the scenes is very close coordination with NATO allies. The principal allies are very united, the U.K., Canada, France, Germany, the U.S., and Poland, Romania, and the Baltics. This is a very different situation than what we saw last August.

PAYNE: Jennifer Griffin, thank you very much. No one, no one could have done that reporting that you just did. We appreciate it. Thank you.

Well, the U.S. reportedly ramping up efforts to counter Russian disinformation, this as Russia claims its troops pulling back, and while the U.S. and NATO say, well, it's just the opposite.

Former CIA station chief and FOX News contributor Dan Hoffman with me now.

Dan, we heard earlier today where -- from the NSA, Anne Neuberger saying, warning the private sector and U.S. citizens to be vigilant on possible cyberattacks by Russia. Did note that there are no credible cyberattacks yet, but that we all should be vigilant.

That describes just how much potentially at risk everyone could be.

DAN HOFFMAN, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: That's right.

And Russia has already launched their hybrid war in Ukraine. We have got ongoing fighting in the Donbass region. And, frankly, it's been going on for the past eight years. But Russia also launched a very damaging cyberattack on Ukraine, where they hit Ukraine's Ministry of Defense and the banks there.

Now, there's a couple of ramifications here for us. Sometimes, attacks in Ukraine have implications not just for that country, but for Europe and here in the homeland as well, just like we saw with the NotPetya attack in 2017.

And this administration has been right not to rule out the possibility, if things escalate beyond control, that Russia might target the United States with cyberattacks. They certainly have the capability to do that. And it's important for our intelligence community to detect indications of warning of such an attack and for all of us to be vigilant.

PAYNE: You know, to that point, apparently, there's been a campaign that began no later than January 2020, a joint advisory from the FBI to National Security Agency cybersecurity and infrastructure security, saying that these Russians have been able to successfully hack defense contractors, and they support contracts, of course, for the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence communities.

It just -- it reminds me the old Mad magazine, where had the two -- the "Spy vs. Spy"? Do we -- how do we know, or do we ever know, when we can get in front of these things? It feels like that they begin plotting these sort of events years in advance. And it feels often that we're catching up.

HOFFMAN: So, it shouldn't come as a surprise to any of us that Vladimir Putin, whose formative experience, one of them, at least, was serving in the KGB, and then later is the director of Russia's federal security service, the FSB -- that's their internal security police -- that he's very accustomed and very comfortable using cloak-and-dagger espionage, including cyberattacks.

He uses his intelligence services to mount those sorts of attacks, as we know from efforts to interfere in our election, the SolarWinds attack, which was from the Russian foreign intelligence service. But he also allows hackers to homestead on Russian territory with impunity.

And they too have targeted us, like Colonial Pipeline. So it's -- this is modern warfare, and Russia considers us, the United States, its main enemy, not because of any military threat that we pose, but because what scares Putin the most is democracy. And he sees an opportunity to target us where we're vulnerable. And that's cyberspace.

PAYNE: Earlier this week, there was a debate in D.C. over sanctions, being proactive, put into place now against Vladimir Putin and the oligarchs, or maybe after -- after the event.

And the question is -- what came up is, what does cybersecurity constitute? Does that constitute an attack? And so far, as far as these sanctions were concerned, that it did not meet that threshold. Is that a mistake?

HOFFMAN: Well, it depends on what the attack is.

So, there's kind of an internationally recognized norm of spying, where nation-states will hack into their adversaries' protected systems to collect intelligence. That's one thing.

It's another thing when you weaponize that information, for example, to target our infrastructure, our power grid. That could be considered an act of war. And so that is something we would have to think about.

The Biden administration has made very, very clear. In contrast to Republican legislators, who would like to pursue preemptive sanctions, the Biden the administration is pursuing a deterrence by punishment. In other words, if Vladimir Putin chooses to invade Ukraine, then we're prepared. We're prepared to shut down Nord Stream 2. We are prepared with lots of sanctions and military assistance to Ukraine.

The challenge for us right now, I can't emphasize this enough, is to understand whether Vladimir Putin is escalating in order to practice coercive diplomacy and extract maximum concessions from the West. Remember, he's given up nothing. All he's done is dialed up the tension.

Or is he headed to war? And right now, that's the question I'm quite sure President Biden is asking the intelligence community to weigh in on. What are Vladimir Putin's plans and intentions? That is always the number one requirement for any Russia watcher in the intelligence community.

PAYNE: Earlier in the week, it felt like that was developing, that Russia was taking some form of a victory lap, that there were indications that they were going to pull back. This is the communique when they started to move to troops.

As it turns out, they were just only being redeployed and repositioned, but that they had somehow won this battle of wills. What would the off-ramp be, in addition to those concessions, where publicly Vladimir Putin would be able to declare himself the winner?

HOFFMAN: So, we have -- I don't think Vladimir Putin is going to be in any rush to remove his troops. He might talk about it. But that's his leverage. That's his leverage to ensure that he gains as much as possible from whatever negotiations take place.

And, remember, he is still arguing that Georgia and Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO, that NATO troop deployments should revert to what they were in 1997. So, Vladimir Putin is doing a lot of things at the same time. We're getting some mixed messages from him. We have got shelling in the Donbass. We have got still roughly 190,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, certainly enough to take -- to conquer Ukraine.

We have got the military exercises in Belarus, which are going to end this Sunday. But Belarus President Lukashenko has said Russian troops can stay as long as they like.

At the same time, as Jennifer noted, the Russian foreign minister, Lavrov, is planning to meet with Secretary Blinken next Wednesday. So the Russians want to continue negotiations. They have been sending out those signals now for a week, but on their terms.

PAYNE: Dan Hoffman, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

HOFFMAN: Thanks.

PAYNE: Folks, President Biden set to speak any moment now on the Russia- Ukraine tensions, those heightened tensions coming in as Secretary of State Antony Blinken is preparing to me possibly on Wednesday with his Russian counterpart. That's assuming Russia does not invade.

With me, us Army retired Lieutenant Colonel Bob Maginnis, along with former State Department official Christian Whiton.

Christian, let me begin with you.

So, what are the chances this meeting happens at all?

CHRISTIAN WHITON, FORMER U.S. DEPUTY SPECIAL ENVOY: Well, I'd say very likely.

I actually am in the minority. I don't think that war is going to happen, at least not any sort of large-scale invasion, simply because Putin really doesn't have an incentive to do so. And he's already gotten a lot of what he needs. So I think it's actually -- they was supposed to be war last Saturday, and then on Wednesday, and now it's this weekend or today.

I think next week will probably be business as usual, in the sense that Vladimir Putin and his foreign minister are going to be reaping the upside, taking advantage of the stage that we have put them on, and will reassert what Russia really wants from us, part of which is just the status quo.

They want Ukraine not in NATO. And Ukraine isn't in NATO. And they want no major U.S. forces stationed in new NATO, which was the status quo until quite recently.

PAYNE: Colonel Maginnis, do you also believe that, or do you think Vladimir Putin needs something more of a clear-cut victory, if not -- if not going back to one of the original theses, just his desire to reconstitute the old USSR?

LT. COL. BOB MAGINNIS (RET.), U.S. ARMY: Well, he certainly wants that ultimately, Charles.

But this is really a litmus test for the Biden administration. It wasn't any mistake that, on the 4th of February, Putin met with Xi, and they probably strategized about how to see how far they can push Biden and NATO, because after all, Xi has every intention of taking Taiwan, if, in fact, he believes that the U.S. doesn't have the backbone to do what's necessary.

So, Putin has thrown out the fleece. He is doing all the tests now. He is doing diplomacy through military threat. All the pieces are in place, Charles. When Jennifer talked about a pontoon bridge, I have been looking for the engineers. The positioning of artillery, I have been looking for that, attack helicopters are forward, field hospitals. Plasma was flown in the other day, we understand.

Su-25 are in place, because they will be used against any radars and the little air defense that they have. So, when you put all these indicators together, certainly, from a strategic perspective, certainly, from someone who's been a planner like me in Europe during the Cold War, I see all the pieces of the puzzle in place.

But Mr. Putin has the final say. He can pull the rug out from underneath what's going on. And, like Christopher, I'd like to see that happen. I don't want this to be a bloody war. I don't want to have a war at all. However, he's insistent on getting his way. And he certainly has the stage right now.

PAYNE: Yes, Chris, to that point, it seems, at the very least, Vladimir Putin would want some sort of autonomous nation or nation-state carved out of the existing Ukraine for those Russian speakers you saw Donbass. It's certainly going to be pivotal in that area.

And to walk away from it, I -- his bravado, his swagger, his ego, it just doesn't seem to fit.

WHITON: Yes, I think he can still walk away from this saying that he got what he wanted.

I mean, all along, the Russians have said they're not going to invade. It's clear they have wanted to go through a dress rehearsal. Incidentally, they went through this on a smaller scale in March of last year. They assembled a lot of force, appeared poised to be able to go into Ukraine, and then it just sort of dribbled away.

Similarly here, there's always the chance he wants to take a little more land on the east side of the Donets River, where you have a particular concentration of ethnically Russian, Russian-speaking Ukrainians, like the territory already controls.

On the other hand, recognizing those as autonomous states or independent states or annexing them to Russia is actually disadvantageous, because to keep Ukraine out of NATO, it's useful to have a disputed border and disputed regions.

So, I think, again, Putin can -- basically, he has what he wants. He's shown NATO is disunified, contrary to what Biden says. Germany is not on the same page with us on NATO expansion or kicking Russia out of SWIFT or not letting Russia conduct dollar-denominated transactions.

And the same is true of a lot of old Europe too, even if they're being less vocal about it.

PAYNE: Chris, let me pick up on what Colonel Maginnis brought up with the -- this meeting with Xi. This relationship is really unnerving to a lot of people, again, in part because it feels like Russia, unlike in the past, is willing maybe, I wouldn't say subordinate, but ready to acknowledge China's new financial and military power, and this joint -- between those two, of course, China wanting to re -- take over Taiwan, and eventually maybe even Vladimir Putin getting his dream of putting back some of the old USSR.

How worried should we be about this new relationship?

WHITON: We should be worried.

It's not a true crisis, catastrophe yet, but it's one in the making. If you look at the Cold War, it was, in effect, our strategy, at least from the Nixon administration, to divide China and the Soviet Union. And we did so. Nixon went to China. It was controversial then. It's still controversial in some quarters today, but effectively divided Beijing from Moscow.

What we have been doing, frankly, administrations of both parties -- and there seems to be a lot of support on this from both parties on Capitol Hill -- is pushing Russia into China's arms. And so you do see this growing entente, but it's nothing like a combined military, that command, or military that truly trains together.

There's some small exercises that have happened. And Russia, even though they're not advertising it, that Russian paranoia actually serves us here.

PAYNE: Right.

WHITON: And they're right to be paranoid. They're looking south at more than a billion Chinese who covet their natural resources.

PAYNE: Well, it's not paranoia to say that everyone is nervous about Zelensky leaving over the weekend in the midst of a potential invasion. Your thoughts on that, Chris?

WHITON: Well, again, the Ukrainians have said that we are overreacting, that they do not see this imminent threat.

They seem to have some credibility there, because we, again, said the war was happening on Wednesday, and it didn't. He is the one with the most at stake. I think it's ridiculous for him to leave, even if he doesn't think the invasion is coming. He's going to the Munich Security Conference. A bunch of U.S. senators are going there too.

It's this Atlanticist gabfest where people, frankly, smooch butt of -- at Americans for -- since we defend Europe at our own expense. It's not something you should waste your time on.

But I think it does tell us that, again, what we're hearing from the Pentagon doesn't match what European militaries might be thinking of the imminence of this threat.

PAYNE: Chris Whiton, thank you very much.

I want to go back now to Bret Baier.

And, Bret, this is 30 minutes' late so far. President Biden has a pretty good reputation for being on time. I think maybe this underscores just how much is at stake and how right he has to get this message.

BAIER: Well, that's right.

And, as we mentioned, that call wrapped up with other leaders about 20 minutes before 4:00 Eastern time, so planning the message right here.

Just to follow up on some of the things you have been talking about with Jen Griffin, the date, obviously, the Olympics comes to an end on Sunday. That's a moment. Jen mentioned the 22nd and 23rd historically with Russia before.

And you also look at what we're seeing in Eastern Ukraine, some of this groundwork by pro-Russian separatists. They came up with, according to U.S. officials, a video about evacuation, emergency evacuation of women and children and elderly to Russia. And they sent that message out today.

However, the video, we're told, was made two days ago, so all kind of laying the groundwork, the pretext perhaps for some invasion to happen. So, right, what President Biden says now is probably going to be a warning that they're seeing movement and they're seeing action.

PAYNE: Of course, yes, the false flag has been what the administration has been really harping on, particularly over the last 48, 72 hours.

I don't know if you heard the Chris Whiton saying that he doesn't think innovation is going to happen. And there's been a large camp that believes that this is a lot of fearmongering on the side of the United States. What do you say to those people?

BAIER: Well, listen, we're just reporting what we hear from intelligence officials at the Pentagon, in the intelligence community and through the administration, and people on the ground in Ukraine.

He's right to say that the Ukrainians have not expressed overconcern about it from a leadership perspective, at least how they talk about it. But the movement of the troops, the actions that are happening, if, in fact, Putin does not go through with this, it's going to have to be quite a back-down.

He's going to have to get something pretty substantial to move what is turning out to be 40 to 50 percent of the Russian military that is on the border with Ukraine. And there's a lot of things happening that, if it's a head fake, it's quite a big head fake.

PAYNE: How much concern are you hearing down there, Bret, about escalation?

If there's an invasion, we start a series of sanctions, which Vladimir Putin today said was anti-competitive behavior, and then what do they do? Is there any sort of concern that this could snowball out of control?

BAIER: Yes. And that's the biggest concern, mostly for the countries that surround that area.

And that's why you're seeing U.S. forces going into different places, like Poland, doing NATO exercises. Those NATO countries sticking together is the big message out of the White House, but, yes, the possibility of something spilling over, most likely, according to U.S. officials, the cyberattack scenario, where we as a country or our businesses get attacked, and it points back to Russia.

And what happens then? I mean, is that an act of war in the cybersecurity sense? And the answer coming back is yes. And there would be some payback for that. And that, again, leads to questions about where it goes.

PAYNE: We have heard good things, great things, if you will, about NATO, some question marks about Germany. But they haven't been put to the test just yet.

And, again, are you hearing maybe whispers of still concern that, if push comes to shove, maybe NATO won't be as reliable? Maybe they have waited. The United States has come to the rescue on more than one occasion when it's come to Europe. And maybe it's difficult for them to do this on their own at this point.

BAIER: Yes, I think that's a big concern.

So far, the NATO leaders and those countries have been very unified, at least in how they're talking about it. I think, as mentioned before, the Germany -- German answers, it'll leave a little bit of vagueness as far, as when push comes to shove, what's going to happen?

They have already got more than 60 percent of their energy coming from Russia. So how does that change the dynamic? I think they have been less vocal on the unity front. But the message from the administration, both here and in Munich at that conference, is that everybody's singing from the same sheet of music.

PAYNE: The topic of President Xi came up just in the segment before yours.

And I, for one, have been really alarmed about this open relationship, the joint military maneuvers, and also the appearance that Russia is willing to maybe take a backseat. One of the issues maybe in the past for them, even though they may have common goals and common enemies, was who would lead the way, so to speak.

What's the talk in Washington, D.C., amongst the leaders that you speak with about this budding relationship between these two?

BAIER: Real concern.

A great piece in The Wall Street Journal about the possibility of a new world order, at least in their mind-set. And you have heard Putin and Xi talk individually about where they see -- they have broad outlines of how they see the world.

And, working together, they insulate each other a bit from sanctions that come from the West. So, it is concerning to a lot of officials, both on Capitol Hill and inside the administration, about that budding relationship. But it's been happening over months. And I think it's been more public and more defined in recent weeks.

PAYNE: Bret Baier, thank you very much.

I'd like now, if -- to go back to General Jack Keane.

General Keane, we were talking about these nuclear exercises. And I want to ask you about Belarus, because it feels like they're going to play more of a role in Putin's ambitions. And there's some concern about what kind of weapons may end up there, what kind of weapon systems .

Do you have any thoughts on that?

KEANE: Yes, Belarus is a conscious attempt by Putin to bring them under his orbit.

Lukashenko was having problems with his own population. He's the longest serving dictator in Europe. At many times, he has stuck a finger in Putin's eye, and they didn't have a very good relationship.

But what was going to happen, as a result of a fraudulent election, the people were in the streets, much as they were against Yanukovych, who was Putin's stooge in Ukraine, back in 2014. And when Putin saw that, he put troops in there, under the guise of training, to make certain the situation was stabilized.

And, over time -- it's taken a little bit about, a year -- he has brought Lukashenko really underneath his wing. And he is now in Russia's orbit. And Belarus will be indefinitely.

I believe they will absolutely leave Russian troops in Belarus over time. And the reason is to intimidate and undermine NATO, because right next to Belarus is what? Poland and the Baltic states. And you saw Lukashenko weaponize immigration to undermine Poland when there was an exodus coming out of the Middle East.

So, yes, this is a relationship. Putin has accomplished what he's wanted.

PAYNE: Right.

KEANE: Belarus is now under his sphere of influence. And it's not going away.

I think, eventually, not too long from now, he will get rid of Lukashenko and get somebody else in there that's more on the same page with Putin than Lukashenko has been in the past.

I want to add something here.

(CROSSTALK)

PAYNE: Sure.

KEANE: We're about to experience something that we likely have never had before.

And that is, if there is an invasion, and if Biden follows through on his economic sanctions and Nord Stream 2, as he has promised -- and I do think, hopefully, he comes through with that -- I do have some question marks about their resolve. But if that happens, it's likely that Putin will conduct a cyberattack on the United States to reciprocate for the sanctions imposed on them.

And that would be the first time that we're experiencing cyber warfare in connection with kinetic warfare. And the reality is, while we're not directly involved in the Ukraine warfare, we are supporting the Ukrainians on the ground. And then, indirectly, certainly, we're going to be the recipient of a cyberattack.

PAYNE: Right.

KEANE: And that has potential, Charles for escalation, because we will respond.

And we have eye-watering capability in terms of our offensive capability. And we successfully thwarted the Russians in 2018 during the midterm elections, when they attacked us, and we took them off the screen. And President Trump, a highly classified operation, revealed that in an interview. We did it again in 2020.

PAYNE: All right.

KEANE: And so we have capability here.

And as you move into that arena, this is different. We have never been down that road before. And it has potential certainly for cyber escalation. Could it lead to something else?

PAYNE: General, stay right there. I want to go to Trey Yingst. I want to come back to you.

But I'm going to go to Kyiv and Trey Yingst and get the latest on what's happening there -- Trey.

TREY YINGST, FOX NEWS FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT: Charles, as we speak, there is escalation in the eastern part of this country.

Russian-backed separatists in the Donbass region continue to shell Ukrainian positions. They are looking to draw this response, and, as we have seen tonight, reports of explosions in different places across Eastern Ukraine. We hear these evacuations ordered by separatist leadership.

And then, when you look into the metadata of the videos that were released to show from these leaders that their civilians should be evacuating, they actually filmed them two days ago. And there's all of these pieces of information coming together and coming out right now that indicate this is part of a false flag preparation.

It is part of the groundwork that we know President Putin, according to Western intelligence analysts, was looking to lay. And General Keane really, I think, hits the nail on the head when he talks about Belarus and what President Putin is looking for.

It's not just Ukraine that will be threatened if this invasion moves forward, Moldova, Belarus, and the leadership there right now, and really the rest of the region. President Putin is looking to push back against what he sees as an expanding eastern front to NATO.

And when it comes to Ukraine, this is a man, President Putin, who, in the past, called the collapse of the Soviet Union the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. As recently as last year, he has written essays that indicate he sees the Russian and Ukrainian people as one and the same.

So, if this invasion does move forward the way that intelligence analysts believe it will, the ripple effect across Europe will be significant. And when you talk about NATO and the security alliance that Ukraine is not a member of, but receives some of the benefits, as an ally of many of these states, they will have to respond if there is an attack outside of Ukraine's borders that affects NATO forces or NATO members.

And that's really this key issue of how the mutual defense will work if this becomes a hybrid war, where we see cyber warfare, on-the-ground military action, and then any other sort of move that the Russian government, led by President Putin, could make.

It's a lot of uncertainty in the coming days and weeks if this continues to move forward. And every indication in the region right now is that this situation is unraveling -- Charles.

PAYNE: Thank you very much.

And back with us, I want to bring General Jack Keane in.

And, of course, we're waiting to hear from President Biden at any moment now.

To pick up on what you were saying and what Trey followed up on, General, there was an article in the economist and it was titled: "Vladimir Putin's willingness to threaten war damages Russia, but it also -- the nature of his regime has now changed irreversibly."

Where did he get this confidence to do something, to make this sort of a pivot, to make this sort of a threat on the world stage, knowing that it does change his regime and how we look at it from here on out? To some degree, he's going to have to be on the offensive from here on out.

KEANE: Well, first of all, I mean, Putin has been dealing with five of our presidents for 20 years. And I think he's gained a lot of experience in that.

And, to a certain degree, he's had his impact on all five of them, and he's had A way with some of them. I think the one that pushed back on him the most was our previous president, President Trump, although, mystifyingly, they had a very good personal relationship, in a professional sense, with each other.

The -- listen, I think what has brought us here largely is Putin sees huge opportunity. He is so frustrated with three anti-Russian governments in Ukraine, each one of them successfully moving Ukraine further to the West and away from Russia. And he is intimidated by the thought of an open, thriving democracy just hundreds of miles from Moscow, and given the fact that Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, and it truly matters.

So that has been his fundamental concern. But why now? I believe this has taken place largely because he perceives an opportunity here, based on U.S. and European weakness, political and social divisions inside European and America, and also testing Biden back in March, when he moved 70,000 troops on the border. No reaction, just rhetorical condemnation, no increase of assistance to Ukraine.

He -- after Afghanistan, I think it became an accelerant, Charles. This was U.S. and NATO failure. We turned the country over to our adversary. Putin looked at that and saw what? He saw poor judgment and also weakness. And that is why we're here.

He sees the opportunity to accomplish politically what has been his objective, and that is to bring Ukraine underneath his orbit and move it away from the West. And he believes, based on a perceived weakness, he's going to get away with it. That's why this is happening.

(CROSSTALK)

PAYNE: I just want to let you know, we got the two-minute warning about almost two minutes.

KEANE: Oh, good.

PAYNE: So, if I have to interrupt you, it could be any minute now.

But I'd like to continue this conversation, because a lot has been made over the fact that this administration has gone to war with the fossil fuel industry. Crude oil prices popped the day after the election. And, essentially, they have not stopped going up since then.

Is there going to be a time when we have to figure out maybe, to curb the emboldened Vladimir Putin, who now has these riches, these new extra riches in his pocket to fund these campaigns, that maybe we can turn back some of this battle here at home on fossil fuels, so we can get crude oil down and maybe at least make it harder for him to fund these things?

KEANE: Well, I think he saw all of that happening, starting with the XL Pipeline certainly initially, and the impact -- he must have questioned himself.

The United States has just developed oil and gas independence. They're leading the world in it. And now all of a sudden they're kneecapping themselves in doing all of that. He also saw the fact that, very early on, the Biden administration said, we're going to go back into the START Treaty.

But we had a lot of conditions that the previous administration was in negotiations over, because Russia was taking advantage of that treaty, in terms of the conditions. And we didn't negotiate. We just went right back into it.

Then, we pulled away from the sanctions on Nord Stream 2. And Putin has looked at all of this, and he sees the weakness there.

PAYNE: Yes.

KEANE: And, yes, is he being advantaged by the oil prices and gas prices that have taken place? Does that give him some flexibility that he didn't have a couple of years ago? Yes, absolutely.

PAYNE: General Keane, thank you very much.

I'm going to go back now to Jennifer Griffin.

Of course, Jennifer, we got the two-minute warning, but we want to hear the latest.

GRIFFIN: I think the latest now is keeping a very close eye on the Donbass region.

There have been some reports that are unverified of some -- an uptick of violence there, some mysterious explosions, that warning earlier today from the Donetsk separatist leader, the Russian proxy, if you will, telling all Russians to leave the area and start lining up at a certain hour for buses out of that area.

We always expected to start seeing that sort of uptick in these hours and days before a potential invasion. What we're seeing right now is -- and you're going to start seeing more of it in the coming days. And people should be aware, because the Russia propaganda machine, R.T., and some of the -- TASS and some of those -- those Russian state media are going to be in full-bore propaganda mode in the coming days.

And they're going to make everything, all reality look the opposite. They're going to make it look like there's some sort of a genocide or attack on Russians that was unprovoked and that the Ukrainian military is at fault. This is all, we're told, part of that casus belli that Putin is looking for in order to justify an invasion.

And he's been softening up his domestic audience, Russians back home, suggesting that Russians are somehow threatened inside Ukraine. And so that has been a constant drumbeat in recent days. It's going to increase.

And then you're going to start seeing those forces, those 190,000, 160,000 forces on the border, start moving closer to attack positions. We already know that some of them are in -- are moving closer and inching closer to the border in the last 48 hours.

And so all of this is happening in plain sight. A military of this size, with this kind of hardware...

PAYNE: Jennifer -- Jennifer, let me jump -- let me jump in for one second, because we do have another two-minute warning. And, this time, it might be true.

We got a readout from President Biden's call with these transatlantic leaders. It says that they pledged to continue pursuing diplomacy to de- escalate tensions, while ensuring readiness to impose swift, coordinated economic costs to on Russia should it choose further conflict. The leaders also discuss efforts to ensure the defense and security of NATO's eastern flank.

Your thoughts on that?

GRIFFIN: Well, I think, Charles, they're trying to give Putin an off-ramp. They're trying to keep diplomacy alive.

Even once they believe that Putin has not taken a final decision, and they are hoping to remind him of these very strong sanctions that they have in place, that they have an agreement from the core NATO allies, those strong European allies, that they will put those sanctions in place, they are still -- again, they offered that Blinken will meet with Lavrov on Wednesday.

They are hoping that Putin accepts this off-ramp. But, so far, there is no sign that Putin is accepting it. His military is moving into -- moving closer to an attack position.

PAYNE: How likely is it, then, that it comes down to Nord Stream 2 and the promise that President Biden made to turn off the spigot, so to speak, and the so far not really strong commitment by Germany to allow that to happen?

GRIFFIN: Well, I have actually have other information, from talking to German officials.

First of all, Nord Stream 2 is not online right now...

PAYNE: Right.

GRIFFIN: ... and that the Germans have said behind the scenes that, if Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will not go -- will not go online, will not go forward. And, that, we have heard from President Biden as well.

But I have heard that from German officials who know what their chancellor said both here in Washington and also in Russia. So I think, right now, Nord Stream 2 is one part of a very vast array of sanctions that are going to be very different from those in the past.

I mean, if Putin moves into Ukraine, this is going to change the map of Europe for the first time in a serious way since the end of the Cold War, since World War II, the largest invasion of a military in Europe since World War II. This is going to set -- there could be unintended consequences of the kind of cyberattacks that are going to be used to blind the Ukraine government and Ukraine military, do they spill over to Europe?

Do they spill over to the United States? We're in an escalation -- potential escalation ladder that is so dangerous. And that is why there is such unity right now between the White House and the NATO allies. I have never seen, actually, NATO as motivated and united. And I have been covering them for a long time, Charles.

And this -- this is -- the warnings that we have received from officials and other governments, as well as our own, they who have specialized in this region and specialized in national security, they are extremely concerned.

And this is -- this is a brinksmanship like none other that I have witnessed, and it is with nuclear powers. And Putin is holding all the cards.

PAYNE: OK, Jennifer, let's leave it there.

We're going to go now to President -- President Biden.

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