This is a rush transcript from "Special Report," July 19, 2019. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT: We hope for their sake they don't do anything foolish. If they do, they will pay a price like nobody has ever paid a price.

We heard it was one, we heard it was two. We're going to be speaking with the U.K. And this only goes to show what I am saying about Iran - trouble, nothing but trouble.

It is very easy to straighten out, or it is very easy for us to make it a lot worse.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRET BAIER, HOST: The president this afternoon talking about Iran and the seizure of two British flagged, actually two oil tankers, one British flagged, the other flagged in the UAE in the Strait of Hormuz. As you take a look at a map, it's a critical area, critical region where a lot of tankers go through. This British tanker, the Stena Impero, captured essentially by Iranian Revolutionary Guard in swift boats. The British foreign secretary saying they are extremely concerned. The seizures are completely unacceptable. And obviously this is in addition to the tensions we have already seen in the region.

So what now? Let's bring in our panel, Charles Hurt, opinion editor for "The Washington Times" and author of the new book "Still Winning, Why America Went All In on Donald Trump and Why We Must Do It Again," Anna Palmer, senior Washington correspondent for "Politico," and Jonah Goldberg, fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. All right, Jonah, obviously this is an escalation. It's a continuation, but it's tense.

JONAH GOLDBERG, CONTRIBUTOR: It is tense, and it may be tense for a good long time. The Obama people will tell you this is what you get when you get out of the deal. Iran is going to be a bad actor again. The thing is Iran was a bad actor when it was under the deal, too. My friend Eli Lake at "Bloomberg" makes this point. He said in the 1990s we used to criticize Bill Clinton, at least conservatives used to criticize Bill Clinton for what we called cruise missile diplomacy. But cruise missile diplomacy actually was very effective in terms of boxing in Iraq when it was a bad actor, boxing in other places when they were bad actors.

I don't think anybody wants to go to war, but the United States has an enormous ability to project power, to make life more difficult for Iran than Iran can make for us in order to push them to getting a better deal. And I think it may just be a while of this kind of thing, of brinksmanship and tit for tat, and that's better than a war, and it's better than letting them have a nuclear weapon.

BAIER: It continued. It happened yesterday as we saw the Pentagon saying that this Iranian drone that was threatening the USS Boxer was taken down by an electronic jamming device. It's got a new device that you see on top of that ship there, there's drums. But the Iranians said, no, it did not happen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOHAMMAD JAVAD ZARIF, IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): The issue of the drone is still under investigation. Based on the latest information that I received from Tehran, we have so far absolutely no information about losing a drone.

MIKE POMPEO, SECRETARY OF STATE: It went down, and the fact that the Foreign Minister Zarif either didn't know or lied about it, I can't account for. It happened.

Foreign Minister Zarif can talk to members in the Congress, that's fantastic. In the end, President Trump will make the decision about how to proceed. He has made clear we're prepared to conduct negotiations with no preconditions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: Bottom line here, Anna, is that these economic sanctions are having an effect. Iran is kind of reaching out, or boxed in.

ANNA PALMER, SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT, "POLITICO": Clearly we're in a dangerous game of chicken right now. I think the question is, before the most recent incident it seemed as though the president, he has tried a couple of times, hey, we are ready to have some negotiations. You see Secretary Pompeo, similarly, Senator Rand Paul, saying maybe I'm the guy who can be the dealmaker here. And these kinds of things really make that seem like it's not going to happen anytime soon.

BAIER: Here are two people we listen to, Admiral Bill McRaven first.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ADM. WILLIAM MCRAVEN, RET., U.S. SPECIAL OPERATIONS COMMAND: I think we need to be thoughtful about how we approach this. We need to recognize this is the way that business is done in the Gulf. They will continue to test us. I am just concerned as we continue to ratchet up the rhetoric that it will serve neither side well.

MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Iran's real hope here I believe is to make the world worry that Persian Gulf shipping and the oil economy could be at risk. And Iran has to play this game very carefully because if they do too much, they will almost guarantee an American military response which may not go well for them. But if they don't do enough, then they won't really make the oil markets budge and they won't make this card they are trying to play work very well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: That's the question. Is this the card they are trying to play?

STEVE HURT, HOST: Prior to this it looked like what they were trying to do was try to drive a wedge between the United States and the other signatories of the Iran nuclear deal. But this latest of taking the oil tankers, that is not succeeding at doing that. If anything, it drives -- it takes the wedge out and drives them together. And then when you have complete pirates of the high seas, that is not very popular in the global community.

But the other thing that I think is interesting is the fact that Iran is denying that there drone was even shot down. That to me suggests -- they know that the United States knows. They know that the allies know whether or not -- they are producing evidence that the drone was shot down. And so it makes me wonder, are they not -- is that not a message intended for their own people? And if it is a message intended for their own people, it suggests that maybe they really are in a lot more trouble than maybe even we realize domestically.

BAIER: Can we quantify these economic sanctions? Can we know how tough it is on the ground in reality?

GOLDBERG: The reports, we have lots of western reporters and lots of westerns who go in there. The reports are that it is really hurting. You have bad inflation issues. The problem is, it is a little bit like China. There is a rule of thumb in China that the Communist Party is more afraid of the people than the people are of the Communist Party. There is something about that going on in Iran as well, and it's a tension -- I don't think. I would love it if we had some spontaneous democratic uprising there. I think that is probably unlikely for the foreseeable future, but if you did have more and more discontent, that would be another reason for putting pressure on the regime there. And ultimately the same goal of the Trump administration is that of everybody else. Get them back at the table for a better deal.

BAIER: I would be remiss if we didn't wrap up this week with the wrap up of the squad back and forth. Today was kind of another iteration of it. Here is Representative Omar and the president.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ILHAN OMAR, D-MINN.: We are going to continue to be a nightmare to this president because his policies -- because his policies are a nightmare to us.

TRUMP: I am unhappy with the fact that a congresswoman can hate our country. She is lucky to be where she is, let me tell you. The things that she has said are a disgrace to our country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: What is the end of this week, 30,000 feet? Where are we, what do we look at here?

PALMER: I was looking back to six months ago when the new Congress came in, historic number of women that were elected, and we have really had gone from this jubilation to clearly a loggerheads between the president, and he sees a great foil in these four women. I think the question is going to when does it end? And I don't think it is going to end anytime soon. You saw Ilhan Omar right there. She is not backing down. The squad, as they call themselves, they are not backing down. This is only adding fuel to the fire on Twitter, and also, I think, frankly, in terms of how they are singing in the caucus on Capitol Hill, in terms of their colleagues wanting to come to their support, which oftentimes they haven't necessarily been that way.

BAIER: And we're probably going to hear a lot about this at the debate in Detroit.

HURT: You think? You think it might come up?

BAIER: I'm just guessing.

HURT: Just guessing? And it is too bad, too, because I think the tweet that Trump was beyond what he should have said. And the scene at the rally, it is an ugly scene, especially when you actually have -- you can make a decent argument that this is -- Congresswoman Omar came here as a Somali refugee, she was embraced by the country, and she has enjoyed all the benefits of the country and has made a success out of herself. I don't agree with a word that comes out of her mouth, but she got elected by constituents in her district. And you can make the argument that attacking her for degrading America and degrading American values, which I think she does, without getting into -- without getting quite as ugly as things have gotten. And I think that it is a powerful, terrific foil for President Trump to run against without getting into the uglier stuff.

BAIER: We want to save some time, because next up is a Friday lightning round, Winners and Losers, plus, drumroll please, the long-awaited return of the Candidate Casino.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JULIAN CASTRO, D-PRESIDENT CANDIDATE: If somebody has a private health insurance plan and it's strong, it's solid, and they want to hold onto it, they should be able to hold onto it.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS, I-VT, D-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know what, I have never met one person who loves their insurance company.

GOV. STEVE BULLOCK, D-MONT., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: To me the problem is that the costs are too high, not that we should get rid of the employer- sponsored health insurance. So I would not be a Medicare for all person.

SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN, D-MASS., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Health insurance companies are not there to help people get health care. They are there to collect premiums and then reduce the amount of health care that their customers get.

JOE BIDEN, D-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If you like your insurance, if you like your company-based health care, you can keep it exactly the way it is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: That sounds very familiar. It sounds maybe back to 2009, 2010?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, FORMER PRESIDENT: No matter what you have heard, if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor under the reformed proposals that we put forward. If you like your private health insurance plan, you can keep it.

If you like your health care plan, you will be able to keep your health care plan, period.

BAIER: You guarantee that they are going to be able to keep their doctor?

OBAMA: Bret, you have got to let me finish the answer.

BAIER: But, sir, I know you don't like the filibuster.

OBAMA: I'm trying to answer your questions, and you keep on interrupting.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: We eventually got there. We're back with the panel. Charlie, this seems like a major battle in the Democratic primary about health insurance.

HURT: Yes. And of course, President Obama ruined that explanation for all of time because he made the assurance so many times. And yes, we actually have candidates talking about giving free health care to illegal aliens. I know a lot of Democrat voters who have been loyal Democrats their entire lives. They don't believe in free health care for illegal aliens.

BAIER: Anna, they said they are not going to do hand raising questions at this next debate, in part because they all raised their hand on that question.

PALMER: What is interesting, though, is we are seeing this fight right now between the Democrats, but clearly Republicans lost in the midterm on health care. They have no alternative. So you're seeing this debate, and Democrats go to the left here, but once it gets to the general, they are going to come back.

BAIER: Jonah?

GOLDBERG: The one thing that strikes me about those clips other than the weirdness from Bernie Sanders, is Joe Biden, he not only was that the PolitiFact lie of the year, you can keep your insurance.

BAIER: And it led to the midterms the Republicans won.

GOLDBERG: But it's particularly bad for him because it feels so old. It feels like a golden oldie thing for a politician to say, and that is a bad look for Joe Biden who is suffering from this idea that he feels like he is a rerun already.

BAIER: We checked it. It was Wednesday. It wasn't three years ago.

All right, our new roulette wheel, Candidate Casino, you get $100 in chips. You have to spend $100 in this Democratic primary, starting with Charlie.

HURT: I wanted to put them all on red. I was not allowed to, so under protest I put $20 on Warren, $20 on Biden, $20 on Harris, and $20 on Buttigieg, and then $20 on the poor dealer who has to listen to all these debates.

BAIER: You would get kicked out of the casino for that betting. Anna?

(LAUGHTER)

PALMER: My caveat I got out of the prediction game in 2016.

BAIER: That's why we make you bet the $100. That's the whole thing.

(LAUGHTER)

PALMER: I put $30 on Biden, $20 on Kamala and Warren, $10 on Bernie and Buttigieg. And my longshots, because you always need a longshot when you go the casino, five for Bullock and five for Booker.

BAIER: Wow, Bullock makes five dollars. All right,?

GOLDBERG: There's someone Bullock? I put $35 on Biden. I put $20 on Harris, $20 on Warren, $10 on Pete Buttigieg, and $15 on the rest of the field, which I define as also someone who still might get in, because that's how life works.

BAIER: Charles used to have wine, women, song. He would always have $10 there.

OK, Winners and Losers really quickly.

HURT: Winner is Coach Drake and the Kalamazoo Growlers. You're never too young to learn to stand up to the man. He went out and he is about to get ejected, and gone.

BAIER: He has got one more thing to say.

HURT: He has is not finished.

BAIER: Wow. This is like the Bobby Knight of baseball.

HURT: And to be honest, he might deserve to be spanked, but he's in a baseball uniform. You know he's the coach. Whatever.

(LAUGHTER)

HURT: Loser of the week are moderate Democrats who are getting their party ripped out of their hands and going over the cliff.

BAIER: Winner and Loser?

PALMER: The squad, more action to them, more people who know who they are.

BAIER: The winner is the squad?

PALMER: Is the winner. The loser is I think Labor Secretary Acosta. Last week was bad for when he lost his job, but this week was even worse Eugene Scalia was named and everybody gave him plaudits and he's going to be quickly forgotten.

BAIER: Yes. Jonah?

GOLDBERG: Quickly forgotten might be good for him. My winner is my friend and former colleague Tim Alberta for his great new book "American Carnage." My loser is the English language, because the town of Berkeley passed a new city ordinance banning words like "manhole," which is now a maintenance hole, and "manpower," which is now going to be called human effort.

BAIER: So disconcerting.

(LAUGHTER)

BAIER: My winner, the return of Candidate Casino.

(LAUGHTER)

BAIER: We'll have better bets next week.

When we come back, "Notable Quotables."

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BAIER: Finally tonight, it is Friday, and that means "Notable Quotables."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The Boxer took defensive action against the Iranian drone.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We crew felt the weight of the world on our shoulders. We knew that everyone would be looking at us.

CROWD: Send her back! Send her back! Send her back!

TRUMP: I didn't say that. They did.

SEN. RAND PAUL, R-KY: Any new program that is going to have the longevity of 70, 80 years should be offset by cutting spending that is less valuable.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There are some things that they have no trouble putting on a credit card.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Google is working with the Chinese communist government and not with the U.S. military.

SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER, D-N.Y., SENATE MINORITY LEADER: FaceApp should send alarm bells for all Americans.

BIDEN: If you like your healthcare plan, your employer based plan, you can you keep it.

TRUMP: If you are not happy here, then you can leave.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Darker spirits seem to have been at play in the people's republic.

REP. NANCY PELOSI, D-CALIF., HOUSE SPEAKER: Every single member of this institution, Democratic and Republican, should join us in condemning the president's racist tweets.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Can I have her words taken down. I make a point of order. The gentlewoman's words are unparliamentary and should be taken down.

REP. ALEXANDRA OCASIO-CORTEZ, D-N.Y.: He tells us that I should go back to the great borough of the Bronx and make it better.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But I think they're whack jobs.

TRUMP: They have so many messages. He is really stupid. Then next week, Donald Trump has a sinister plot to take over the world. He can't be too stupid.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: That is one week in Washington, another wild week of news. This weekend Chris Wallace will interview House Judiciary Committee Chairman Democrat Jerry Nadler ahead of the Mueller hearings next week. And senior White House policy adviser Stephen Miller will also be on "FOX News on Sunday." You can check your local listings for time.

It has been quite a week. Everybody make it a great weekend, smile a little bit, stay cool, drink a lot of water. Thanks for inviting us into your home tonight. That's it for the “Special Report,” fair, balanced, and unafraid. Wednesday, complete coverage of the Mueller hearings right down here with my friend and colleague Martha MacCallum, who has "The Story" right now.

Hi, Martha.

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