Messi's Miami opens playoffs as MLS Cup favorites, though history isn't on their side

The 2024 MLS Cup playoffs kick off on Tuesday following a marathon regular season, with Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami the clear favorites to win the title.

Messi and Miami will meet the winner of Tuesday’s single elimination Eastern Conference wildcard between CF Montreal and Atlanta United. The Vancouver Whitecaps and Portland Timbers will contest the West’s play-in on Wednesday, with the best of three game Round 1 series beginning with the Oct. 25 opener between the Herons and Atlanta/Montreal. All matches are available on Apple TV.

Messi just led Miami to the greatest regular season in MLS’s 29-year history; the GOAT scored an 11-minute hat trick in Saturday’s campaign-ending comeback win over the New England Revolution, a victory that gave the Herons a league record 74 points.

The Supporters Shield triumph means that Miami will enjoy home field advantage throughout the postseason. It also qualified Tata Martino’s squad for the 2025 Club World Cup, FIFA president Gianni Infantino announced on the Chase Stadium field following Saturday’s victory. Infantino also revealed that the Herons will host the opening match of the tournament at 65,000-capacity Hard Rock Stadium.

FIFA’s decision wasn’t without controversy, though, for good reason: MLS Cup is the league's most prestigious award, one that has for almost three decades now determined the champion of the U.S. and Canada’s top league. The Supporters Shield doesn't.

Yet while the commercial appeal of having Miami participate in its expanded Club World Cup is obvious, it’s not as if Marino’s team — one rounded out by Messi’s former Barcelona teammates Jordi Alba, Sergio Busquets and Luis Suárez — isn’t a more than worthy representative for MLS.

Miami can make FIFA’s decision moot by winning MLS Cup, of course. Easier said than done.

Finishing first over the eight-month, 34 game regular season has rarely been a predictor of what happens in the fall. Only eight Supporters Shield holders have gone on to claim the double since MLS’s inception in 1996. Just five have done it this century.

Given the way that Messi and friends have dominated all MLS comers in 2024, it would surprise nobody if Miami became the sixth double winner on Dec. 7. They’ll face stiff competition even to reach the championship match, though, with the defending champion Columbus Crew a potential foe in the one-game East final.

Out West, the two Los Angeles powerhouses took the top seeds. The LA Galaxy squandered their shot at the top spot by losing their regular season finale Saturday on a last-gasp goal in Houston. Meantime, 2022 champs LAFC eked past their crosstown rivals by beating the hapless San Jose Earthquakes.

Here are the Round 1 matchups.

Eastern Conference

Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United or CF Montreal

There will be storylines aplenty no matter which team emerges to face the No. 1 seed. Martino led Atlanta to the 2018 MLS Cup title. His star performer with the Five Stripes? Former Miami striker Josef Martinez, who left for Montreal last winter and helped the Bleu-Blanc-Noir punch their postseason ticket with a Decision Day win over New York City. 

Orlando City vs. Charlotte FC

Orlando dropped its last match to Atlanta but had been in fine form beforehand, going 6-1 in their previous seven games. One of those was a decisive 2-0 win over Charlotte on Sept. 18. The Lions and the Crown tied in North Carolina in June in their only other meeting in 2024. The series begins on Sunday in Central Florida (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX Deportes/Apple TV).

FC Cincinnati vs. NYCFC

Last year’s Supporters Shield winners managed just three wins over their last dozen games to finish fifth overall. But despite the loss of key defenders Nick Hagglund and Matt Miazga to season-ending injuries, FCC still boasts an elite roster led by 2023 MLS MVP Lucho Acosta. And while the Pigeons took the most recent encounter earlier this month, Cincy beat NYCFC twice at home to take the season series. Their playoff slate opens at TQL Stadium on Oct. 28 (6:45 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX Deportes/Apple TV).

Columbus Crew vs. New York Red Bulls

After winning it all last December, Wilfried Nancy’s side is poised for another deep run this fall. The Crew already hosted one piece of silverware in 2024 — the Leagues Cup — and lost in the Concacaf Champions Cup final.

They shouldn’t have too much trouble outlasting the Red Bulls, which have made the playoffs for 15 straight seasons without one MLS Cup appearance to show for it. The Ohio capital hosts the opener on Oct. 29 (6:45 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX Deportes/Apple TV).

Western Conference

LAFC vs. Portland Timbers or Vancouver Whitecaps

Last year’s runner up LAFC opens its playoff slate on Sunday (9:45 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX Deportes/Apple TV) with high hopes of returning to the final for the third year running. During the regular season, LAFC was unbeaten in four games versus the Timbers and Caps, beating the latter both at home and north of the border.

Seattle Sounders vs. Houston Dynamo

The Sounders are always a tough out this time of year. And with a record of 18W-6L-8T against the Dynamo, they’ve owned the all-time series. Last month, Seattle beat Houston at Lumen Field, which hosts the rematch next Monday (9 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX Deportes/Apple TV). The two teams played to a 2-2 tie in Texas in June.

Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United

Winning MLS Cup is often about getting hot when it counts. Minnesota enters the playoffs   scorching, the Loons having won six of their final eight games.

On the other hand, RSL has been consistent all year, finishing sixth overall. Picking a winner isn’t easy; the teams drew both times they met in 2024.  The final Round 1 opener kicks off on Oct. 29 (9:00 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX Deportes/Apple TV).

LA Galaxy vs. Colorado Rapids

The Galaxy have to be kicking themselves after last weekend’s loss; the Rapids, under first year coach Chris Armas, are one of the league’s most improved squads this term. But Colorado was dealt a cruel injury blow on Decision Day, as star playmaker Djordje Mihailović was stretchered off the field with a sprained ankle. Whether Mihailović is able to return later in the series is unclear.

Doug McIntyre is a soccer reporter for FOX Sports. A former staff writer with ESPN and Yahoo Sports, he has covered U.S. men's and women's national teams at FIFA World Cups on five continents. Follow him @ByDougMcIntyre.