2024 NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Fade Cowboys at Commanders, back Colts to cover

NFL Week 12 will be interesting, to say the absolute least. 

We've got Super Bowl favorite Detroit facing an Indy team that has the tendency to keep games competitive, and we've got the Harbaugh brothers facing off on Monday Night Football.

Which way will the pendulum swing in these games?

Well, I know where I'm putting my money. Keep reading to check out my best bets for this weekend's slate of games.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, NOV. 24

Cowboys @ Commanders (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

I usually do my best to avoid taking favorites in divisional matchups, but I do love the Commanders here.

I’ve heard this spot referred to as the "widowmaker." One team (Washington) comes in with extra rest, having played last Thursday. The other (Dallas), is on short rest, having played Monday.

You have to wonder if the Cowboys have quit. That dispiriting loss to the Texans was their fifth in a row. There will be no playoffs. They have a road trip here and then head back for a Thanksgiving game against the Giants.

Then you look at the injuries. Dallas ended the Houston game with three offensive linemen out, and it looks like two of them — Tyler Smith and Zack Martin — might not play Sunday. Washington is in much better shape health-wise — except Marshon Lattimore, who has yet to suit up due to a hamstring injury.

Finally, Dan Quinn spent a few years in Dallas and got to see Cooper Rush in practice daily. He knows Rush's strengths and weaknesses. 

Even though Washington’s defense isn’t great, it doesn't have to be here. This feels like a 30-13 Washington win. Oh, and double-digit favorites are 5-0 ATS this season.

PICK: Washington (-10) to win by more than 10 points

Lions @ Colts (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

This is a tough one to stomach, but I’m doing it.

I like the Colts here. 

Yes, the Lions have been a covering machine, going 8-2 against the spread (ATS) this year, 14-6 ATS last year and 12-5 ATS in 2022. So just know every week you’re backing them, you’re paying a tax on Detroit.

The Colts, quietly, have been great to back this season, going 8-3 ATS. 

Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco, Indy keeps games close. Ten of the Colts' 11 games have been decided by one score.

Now, here's the bad. 

The Colts will be starting three rookies on the offensive line (LT, C, RG). Not great on the interior against run wreckers like Alim McNeill and DJ Reader. But the Lions are without their star middle LB Alex Anzalone. He's the team’s green dot, calling plays for the defense.

Can Jonathan Taylor take advantage? His numbers Anthony Richardson are significantly better than with Flacco, and the best way to slow down the Lions offense is to keep them off the field. 

If you can get 10 carries from Richardson and 20 from Taylor, and get to around 35 minutes of possession time, the explosive Lions won’t be able to run away and hide.

PICK: Colts (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points, or win outright

MONDAY, NOV. 25

Ravens @ Chargers (8:15 p.m., ESPN/ABC)

The "Harbowl" is going to be fantastic. This is a battle between two brothers who happen to have AFC contending rosters. 

One has the arrow pointing up (L.A.) and the other has had a rocky few weeks (Baltimore). 

It’s early for injury reports, but two key players who make up the spine of the Ravens defense — safety Kyle Hamilton and LB Roquan Smith — suffered injuries in the loss to Pittsburgh. Their status in this game will be paramount. Especially against a run-heavy team like the Chargers.

Speaking of being run-heavy, OC Greg Roman, and both RBs — JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards — are all former Ravens. Certainly, they'll be looking for revenge. 

The Chargers rookie cornerbacks were problems against the pass-happy Bengals, but they have much less to fear after Zay Flowers. 

Jesse Minter, the Chargers DC, spent four seasons with the Ravens on staff and knows all of John Harbaugh’s tendencies and Lamar’s, too. Every edge seems to go to the Chargers.

PICK: Chargers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright 

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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