Trump takes stunning lead over Harris with surprising group in blue state

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Former President Trump has moved into the lead among Jewish voters in deep-blue New York.

Trump garnered the support of 50% of likely Jewish voters in New York, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released Tuesday, a slight lead over Vice President Harris who garnered the selection of 49% of respondents.

While the lead for Trump is slim, it marks a dramatic change from the former president’s prospects against President Biden, who in June led Trump among likely Jewish voters, 52%-46%, in the state.

However, the race has changed dramatically since the last poll, with Biden opting last month to drop out of the race and immediately endorse Harris, who quickly worked to secure the Democrat nomination.

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Harris’ journey to the top of the Democrat ticket comes as some supporters of Israel have worried that her support for the Jewish state has started to wane, with some arguing that she has distanced herself from the Biden administration since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip.

Harris became the first administration official to call for an "immediate cease-fire" to the conflict in March, and she also became the first administration official to warn of "consequences" for Israel if it went ahead with a planned invasion of the Gazan city of Rafah in an interview with ABC News later that month.

Harris has also faced questions about her relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, most notably after she appeared to dodge questions about whether the Israeli leader had become an "obstacle to peace."

"I believe that we have got to continue to enforce what we know to be and should be the priorities in terms of what is happening in Gaza," Harris said in response. "We've been very clear that far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. We have been very clear that Israel and the Israeli people and Palestinians are entitled to an equal amount of security and dignity."

Vice President Harris (Erin Schaff/Pool via Reuters/File)

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The poll also comes just before Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was the only Jewish candidate in the running. The move prompted some to speculate that the choice was made as a result of Shapiro's lack of popularity with members of the Democratic Party, who have taken a more sympathetic approach to Palestinians since the war broke out in Gaza.

Nevertheless, Jewish voters have traditionally supported Democrat candidates for decades. According to an analysis by the American Enterprise Institute, Jewish voters have on average supported Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 71% to 26% since 1968.

Jewish voters supported Biden over Trump 68% to 30% in 2020, while in 2016 the same group chose Clinton over Trump by a margin of 71% to 26%.

President Biden (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images/File)

But the poll wasn’t all bad news for Harris, who overall solidified her lead over Trump among all likely voters in the state. Harris now leads Trump 53%-39% among likely New York voters, according to the Tuesday poll, a large improvement from the eight- to 10-point lead Biden had in previous versions of the poll.

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The Siena College Research Institute poll was conducted between July 28 and Aug. 1 and surveyed 1,199 likely voters in New York, 8% of whom were Jewish; the poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.