'Trump card': Internal House GOP memo reveals confidence amid dead-heat presidential race

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House Majority Leader Steve Scalise speaks with Fox News Digital on 2024 election

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise spoke with Fox News Digital about the election and what a GOP-led first 100 days looks like.

FIRST ON FOX: The House Republicans’ campaign arm is confident that voter enthusiasm for former President Donald Trump will push them to victory in tight races across the country on Election Day.

A National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) memo being sent to candidates and campaigns Monday morning, obtained by Fox News Digital, said the House GOP would rise or fall with Trump.

"The NRCC holds a Trump card as we enter the home stretch: a historic environmental advantage for the GOP with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket," it said. 

"The House has not flipped in the opposite direction of the results of a presidential election since the 1800s. In the previous 75 years, the House majority has not changed hands during a presidential election cycle. It’s why less than two weeks from Election Day we believe House Republicans can grow our majority."

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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump could be key to the House GOP's electoral fate, a new memo suggests. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

It also argues that Trump’s momentum in districts that President Biden won in 2020 is greater than it was in the last election, citing internal data.

"An October NRCC polling average shows that among the 16 Biden districts that House Republicans currently hold, Kamala only leads by less than a point on the ballot," the NRCC memo said.

"This includes districts in blue states where Trump is currently either statistically tied or holds a lead where Biden won by double digits in 2020. In contrast, in 2020, Joe Biden won these 16 districts by more than 6.3% on average."

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A Fox News poll from mid-October found Trump leading Harris nationally 50% to 48%.

Lawmakers running in tight races, generally known as "front-line" candidates, traditionally must over-perform at the top of their ticket in presidential election years to win.

House Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republican leaders have been crisscrossing the country campaigning. (Getty Images)

Both Democrats and Republicans have poured enormous time and resources into such races in New York and California, where a suburban backlash to cities’ progressive crime policies drove the House GOP into control in 2022.

There are 16 seats among that number where voters chose Biden over Trump in 2020; however, and the road to the House majority likely lies through them again.

Republicans’ optimism comes despite their fundraising lagging behind Democrats’ level since Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s presidential nominee in July.

"Despite Democrats’ fundraising advantage, Donald Trump’s popularity is pushing outgunned GOP challenger campaigns over the finish line," the memo said. 

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Democrats, led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, have been outpacing the GOP in fundraising. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

"Any Democrat-held seat won by Joe Biden by five points or less in 2020 is in danger of flipping to the GOP due to Trump’s surge – and in some areas of the country, that number is even higher."

Asked for comment on the GOP memo, DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told Fox News Digital, "All cycle long, House Democrats have been running ahead – in the polls, on the ground, and in resources – and that momentum is clear as we head into the final week before the election."

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"The public is sick and tired of Republican dysfunction and want to see governance that works. That’s why Democrats are going to take back the House majority so that we can get the government back to work to defend reproductive freedom, lower costs, protect Social Security and Medicare, and grow the middle class," the DCCC said.

Democrats running in 25 of the 26 races dubbed by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as "toss-ups" have outraised their Republican opponents in the most recent three-month span, according to an analysis by The Hill.

Meanwhile, The DCCC raised $22.3 million in August, compared to $9.7 million by the NRCC. House Democrats ended that period with more cash than the GOP as well – $87 million compared to $70.7 million.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.