Shooter's skill level likely determined fate of latest Trump assassination attempt: experts

Former President Donald Trump's life was put in extreme danger again Sunday, security and military experts told Fox News Digital, though the shooter's ability to actually harm the former president largely came down to his skill level.

"Wide open areas like golf courses are notoriously difficult to secure," Josh Schirbard, a former SWAT commander and sniper team leader, told Fox News Digital. 

"The routes of ingress are almost infinite, and most golf courses contain an abundance of wooded areas, shrubs, and other landscape features that make masking one's approach even easier. Given these challenges, the best chance for an assassination attempt would be to use terrain masking and distance as your allies to try to make a long-range rifle shot."

The comments come after the FBI said Sunday it is investigating an apparent attempted assassination on Trump, this time after shots were fired near the former president at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference held at Trump National Golf Club Los Angeles in Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif., on Friday, Sept. 13. (AP/Jae C. Hong)

The suspect, 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh, was arrested Sunday after fleeing the scene.

Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw told reporters Sunday that the gunman was roughly 300 to 500 yards away from Trump and was armed with an AK-47 style rifle, but was spotted by a U.S. Secret Service agent who "engaged" the suspect. 

Pictures released Wednesday showed the rifle was actually an SKS, which has similar capabilities to an AK-47.

Pictures of evidence found at the fence of former President Donald Trumps golf course are shown at a press conference in West Palm Beach, Florida, on September 15, 2024 following a second attempt on the presidents life. (Candan Khanna / AFP via Getty Images)

Schirbard noted that Trump faced increased risk because he was mobile, arguing that the shooter's plan could have been to wait until the former president entered a closer range to attempt his shot.

"This is a question of commitment," Schirbard said. "The beauty of this environment and type of engagement is that the farther away you can engage the target, the more likely you are to be able to escape.  Multiple routes of ingress also equal multiple concealed routes of egress.  If you wait until he is on top of you, yes, you have a much greater chance of success but at the cost of being found and gunned down. 

"The fact that [Secret Service] saw him sticking the barrel out of the bushes tells me that he was preparing to take that shot.  He also clearly had an escape plan, which he executed, also leads me to believe that he was not prepared to die to carry out the assassination," he continued.

But taking the longer shot made it less likely for Routh to actually hit the former president.

"There are some challenges with that kind of shot and this weapon system," Schirbard said. "The ‘standard’ SKS fires a 7.62mm round and while its incredibly reliable, and 'technically' has an effective range of 500+ yards, it's not known for being very accurate.  The standard SKS can only maintain 3-5 MOA accuracy, which means in a perfect environment, rounds shot at 100 yards will land in a 3-5" circle.  While this may seem accurate, standard "'ong range' style rifles used by police and military snipers boast well within a 1 MOA or 1" circle at 100 yards."

Chad Robichaux, former Force Recon Marine and Department of Defense (DoD) contractor, told Fox News Digital that the weapon the suspect used could have been effective at about 1,000 yards.

"Assuming it was a rifle with a caliber between 5.56 and 7.62, a skilled shooter can effectively hit a target at 1,000 yards," Robichaux said. "So, if the shooter had any decent skills, he was certainly within range to kill President Trump."

Robichaux also noted that even for an "entry level Marine," a shot of "500 yards with no scope" should be able to "hit a human-sized target."

Sheriff vehicles are pictured near Trump International Golf Club, Sunday. Sept. 15, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla., after gunshots were reported in the vicinity of Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Stephanie Matat)

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Meanwhile, Mark "Oz" Geist, the bestselling co-author of "13 Hours" and a security and military consultant, told Fox News Digital that the scope may not have made much of a difference.

"A scope wouldn’t necessarily increase the maximum effective range but would provide the shooter with greater accuracy," Geist said.

Geist also noted the setup of the shooter, arguing that it was likely Routh knew there was a chance his position would be compromised.

"Also included in the pictures was a chain-link fence with a backpack and another carrying case attached to it, which has been indicated to contain ceramic plates, with a gap left to shoot through. This setup suggests that the potential shooter had placed these items in a defensive position, possibly in anticipation of being compromised and receiving return fire from the Secret Service," Geist said.

Sheriff vehicles are pictured near Trump International Golf Club, Sunday. Sept. 15, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla., after gunshots were reported in the vicinity of Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump. (Peter Burke/Fox News Digital)

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Trump was unharmed in the incident, with senior campaign advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wile writing after the incident that an "evil monster" made an attempt on Trump’s life "for the second time in two months."

"Thankfully, no one was injured at the Golf Course. President Trump and everyone accompanying him are safe thanks to the great work of the United States Secret Service," they wrote.