Russia planning Ukraine false flag as pretext for invasion: Pentagon

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Pentagon officials say US on high alert awaiting Putin's next step

National security correspondent Jennifer Griffin on how the Pentagon is planning to respond to potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The United States has intelligence that Russia is likely to "fabricate" a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine, the Pentagon confirmed Thursday.

The Washington Post on Thursday morning first reported that Russia has developed a plan to create a pretext for a Ukraine invasion by falsely pinning an attack on Ukrainian forces.

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"We do have information that the Russians are likely to want to fabricate a pretext for an invasion, which, again, is right out of their playbook," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said when asked whether the report was accurate.

U.S. officials believe that Russia is planning to "stage a fake attack by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces against Russian sovereign territory or against Russian-speaking people to therefore justify their action as part of this fake attack," Kirby explained.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby speaks during a briefing at the Pentagon on Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

"We believe that Russia would produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners, and images of destroyed locations, as well as military equipment, at the hands of Ukraine, or the West," Kirby said, adding that the U.S. has information that the equipment in the video "would be made to look like it was Western supplied" equipment to Ukraine.

"This is just one example," Kirby said. "We’re watching this across the board. We’ve seen these kinds of activity by the Russians in the past." 

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The Washington Post reported that the plan was approved by the highest levels of the Russian government.

U.S. Army soldiers from the 18th Airborne Division walk out to a C-17 aircraft as they deploy to Europe on Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022 from Fort Bragg, North Carolina. President Joe Biden is ordering 2,000 U.S. troops to Poland and Germany amid the stalled talks with Russia over the Kremlin's military buildup on Ukraine's borders. (AP Photo/Chris Seward)

When asked how Pentagon officials knew that to be the case, Kirby said "our experience is that very little of this nature is not approved at the highest levels of the Russian government," referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kirby’s comments come just a day after the U.S. announced it will deploy 3,000 more troops to Romania, Poland and Germany.

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Last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin put 8,500 U.S. troops on heightened preparedness, as President Biden and his national security officials weighed where to send troops in Eastern Europe to aid Ukraine as part of a broader NATO effort, while Putin threatened incursion.

The 3,000 troops include 2,000 from 82nd Airborne Division and 18th Airborne Corps, based in Fort Bragg, North Carolina, and 1,000 who are currently based in Germany. The troops from Germany will deploy to Romania, the 82 Airborne soldiers will go to Poland, and the 18th Airborne forces will go to Germany.

The Pentagon, on Wednesday, said the forces "are not going to fight in Ukraine," but instead would "ensure a robust defense of our NATO allies."

There are already approximately 900 U.S. troops in Romania.

The 8,500 troops that Austin put on heightened standby, though, "are not currently being deployed, but remain ready to move if called for the NATO response force or as needed for other contingencies as directed by the secretary or by President Biden," Kirby said Wednesday.

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Last week, top Pentagon officials said the build-up of Russian troops along Ukraine's border is the largest since the Cold War, and warned that conflict in Eastern Europe would be "horrific," but stressed that it is "not inevitable," maintaining that there is "still time and space for diplomacy," as the Kremlin continues to threaten further incursion in Ukraine. 

Meanwhile, the White House, on Wednesday, backed away from its characterization that Russia’s invasion into Ukraine is "imminent," saying officials "still don’t know" if Putin has "made a decision" on incursion.

President Biden last week, during a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, warned of a "distinct possibility" of a Russian invasion in February.

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Zelenskyy, though, said Ukraine is "not seeing any escalation bigger than before," and said the Russian build-up of troops could be an attempt by Moscow to exert "psychological pressure" and sow panic.

And Russia has denied it intends to launch an attack. Russian officials said NATO must promise not to allow Ukraine to join the alliance, among other demands, which the United States and NATO have rejected.

Russia Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya on Monday slammed the West, claiming it is trying to will a Ukrainian war into existence. 

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"The deployment of Russian troops within our own territory has frequently occurred on varying scales before and has not caused any hysterics whatsoever," he said. "The discussions about a threat of war is provocative in it of itself." 

Nebenzya added: "You are almost calling for this, you want it to happen, you are waiting for it to happen as if you want to make your words become a reality."