Poll shows top Dems lead Trump in matchups

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Trump, Biden dismiss early polling in 2020 race after holding dueling events in Iowa

President Trump and 2020 Democrat hopeful Joe Biden downplay early polling in the presidential contest after both make appearances in Iowa; Peter Doocy reports from Des Moines.

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On the roster: Poll shows top Dems lead Trump in matchups - Time Out: ‘Of course, everyone pounced on my diary’ - Warren trails Biden in Massachusetts - Trump asserts executive privilege on census materials - If at first you don’t succeed, try 56 times

POLL SHOWS TOP DEMS LEAD TRUMP IN MATCHUPS
Quinnipiac University: “In a first look at head-to-head 2020 presidential matchups nationwide, several Democratic challengers lead President Donald Trump, with former Vice President Joseph Biden ahead 53 - 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released [Tuesday]. In other matchups, the independent Quinnipiac University National Poll finds: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders over President Trump 51 - 42 percent; California Sen. Kamala Harris ahead of Trump 49 - 41 percent; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren tops Trump 49 - 42 percent; South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg edges Trump 47 - 42 percent; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker by a nose over Trump 47 - 42 percent. In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 60 - 34 percent, as men are divided with 47 percent for Biden and 46 percent for Trump. White voters are divided with 47 percent for Trump and 46 percent for Biden.”

Kraushaar: ‘Why Trump isn’t likely to win a second term’ - National Journal: “Trump is in the weakest political shape of any sitting president since George H.W. Bush. Despite a historically strong economy, his job approval ratings are still badly underwater. … At least 40 percent of voters are fired up to vote against him, no matter what happens in the next year. He’s already lost ground with the working-class voters who defected from the Democrats to support him in 2016, with his favorability rating dropping 19 points among that critical Obama-Trump constituency in the last two years. … Trump’s clearest path to victory relies on Democrats making a series of self-destructive decisions. But even if Democrats turn leftward and nominate a weak challenger, they’d still have a credible chance at unseating Trump. The country’s rampant polarization guarantees that anyone—no matter how extreme—would be well-positioned against the president.”

Q Poll shows Biden leading Dem primary - Quinnipiac University: “Biden leads the presidential primary race with 30 percent among Democrats and voters leaning Democratic. This compares to his 35 percent standing May 21, his 38 percent standing in an April 30 Quinnipiac University National Poll, right after he announced his candidacy, and his 29 percent standing March 28. Sanders is next with 19 percent, compared to 16 percent last month. Warren has 15 percent, compared to 13 percent May 21. Buttigieg has 8 percent, compared to 5 percent last month. Harris is at 7 percent, compared to 8 percent May 21. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke is at 3 percent, compared to 2 percent last month. No other Democrat tops 1 percent, with 14 candidates polling at less than 1 percent.”

THE RULEBOOK: GOTTA STICK TOGETHER
“It ought never to be forgotten, that a firm union of this country, under an efficient government, will probably be an increasing object of jealousy to more than one nation of Europe…” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 59

TIME OUT: ‘OF COURSE, EVERYONE POUNCED ON MY DIARY’
History: “On this day [in 1942], Anne Frank, a young Jewish girl living in Amsterdam, receives a diary for her 13th birthday. A month later, she and her family went into hiding from the Nazis in rooms behind her father’s office. For two years, the Franks and four other families hid, fed and cared for by Gentile friends. The families were discovered by the Gestapo, which had been tipped off, in 1944. The Franks were taken to Auschwitz, where Anne’s mother died. Friends in Amsterdam searched the rooms and found Anne’s diary hidden away. Anne and her sister were transferred to another camp, Bergen-Belsen, where Anne died of typhus a month before the war ended. Anne’s father survived Auschwitz and published Anne’s diary in 1947 as The Diary of a Young Girl. The book has been translated into more than 60 languages.”

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SCOREBOARD
Trump job performance 
Average approval: 42 percent
Average disapproval: 51.4 percent
Net Score: -9.4 points
Change from one week ago: up 2.8 points
[Average includes: Quinnipiac University: 42% approve - 53% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 43% approve - 49% disapprove; IBD: 42% approve - 52% disapprove; CNN: 43% approve - 53% disapprove; CNBC: 40% approve - 50% disapprove.]

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WARREN TRAILS BIDEN IN MASSACHUSETTS
The Hill: “Former Vice President Joe Biden tops the field of Democratic presidential contenders in Massachusetts, according to a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll out Tuesday, leading Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) by 12 percentage points among voters in her home state. The poll shows Biden with 22 percent support among Massachusetts Democrats surveyed, while Warren places second with 10 percent support. Taking third place is South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who came in at 8 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who has consistently placed second to Biden in national polls, trailed Buttigieg in the Suffolk University/Boston Globe survey, with 6 percent support. … Super Tuesday, when Massachusetts and a dozen other states will hold their primaries, is still roughly nine months away and the nominating contest in the Bay State appears far from decided. According to the Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll, just over 40 percent of respondents are still undecided. And Warren’s favorability among likely Democratic primary voters remains high at 71 percent.”

But she takes second place in Nevada - Monmouth University: “Former Vice President Joe Biden is the front-runner among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Nevada while Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren takes second place, just ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. … In a field of 24 candidates, Biden holds a clear lead with 36% support among registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to attend the February 2020 Nevada caucuses. He is followed by Warren at 19%, Sanders at 13%, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7%, and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 6%. Other candidates registering at least 1% in the poll are former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (2%), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2%), entrepreneur Andrew Yang (2%), former cabinet secretary Julián Castro (1%), Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (1%), Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (1%), and author Marianne Williamson (1%).”

Bernie to clarify vision of ‘democratic socialism’ - NBC News: “Bernie Sanders will outline his vision of ‘democratic socialism’ on Wednesday, explaining his view that all Americans are guaranteed certain rights, including housing, a job, a secure retirement and more, according to excerpts of the speech released by his campaign. ‘We must recognize that in the 21st century, in the wealthiest country in the history of the world, economic rights are human rights,’ Sanders will say, according to the excerpts of what his campaign is billing as a major address. … The Vermont independent senator will urge voters to ‘take the next step forward and guarantee every man, woman and child in our country’ rights to health care, education, a ‘decent job,’ affordable housing, a secure retirement and living in a ‘clean environment,’ according to the excerpts. … Sanders delivered a similar speech during the 2016 Democratic presidential primary…”

Biden reverses stance on China - WashEx: “Former Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday plans on reversing his earlier stance on China, acknowledging during remarks in Iowa he is ‘worried’ about the communist nation's economic and military rise. Biden plans on telling Iowans, ‘We are in a competition with China,’ and that ‘we need to get tough,’ according to CNN. The prepared remarks are a striking change in tone for the former vice president and former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who in his 2020 campaign has come under repeated criticism for dismissing China's threat to the United States. During his first visit to Iowa in April, Biden said China was ‘not competition’ and mocked the idea that the world's second-largest economy could soon overtake the U.S. It also comes days after Biden said he had reversed his longtime support for the Hyde Amendment…”

Mayor Pete embraces youth in foreign policy outline - WaPo: “In the early months of his campaign, Buttigieg has faced questions about whether he’s leaned too much on his personality and not talked enough about substance. … So, rather than apologize for his youth, the boy mayor leaned into it. A recurring trope of the speech was that Americans should be thinking about what they want the country to look like in 2054. It’s no coincidence that this is when Buttigieg will turn 72, the age of the current president. (Trump turns 73 on Friday.) … Buttigieg used the word ‘future’ a dozen times. ‘We face not just another presidential election, but a transition between one era and another,’ he said. … Without naming names, Buttigieg chastised the old guard of the Democratic Party. ‘I should acknowledge that, for the better part of my lifetime, it has been difficult to identify a consistent foreign policy in the Democratic Party,’ he said.”

How #YangGang got this far - WaPo: “Yang’s ascent from anonymity has been instantaneous in a way that can only exist in the age of social media. (His fans, who call themselves the Yang Gang, sometimes Photoshop him into robot-fighting scenes from science fiction.) … Yang is exceedingly unlikely to win, and may not even last long in primary season. But his candidacy can still, perhaps, tell us something about the future. … Yang’s hunt for the cheat codes to democracy is part of his appeal to supporters. He may lack game in matters of the heart, but he made his (undisclosed) millions gaming the test-prep industry. Disciplined behavior targeting the numeric measurements of success is his thing. Gaming the numbers is also, these days, America’s thing: From the quant revolution in sports, to influence measured numerically in followers, to journalism designed to chase clicks, manipulating the metrics of success is something of a national pastime.”

Mark Leibovich: Do any of the Dems know what they’re doing? - NYT: “If there is something that unites the nearly two dozen Democrats currently in the field, it is that no one, really, knows how this works. It’s a cliché at this point to say that Trump changed politics in 2016, and that everyone — candidates, operatives and media — is still scrambling to understand the implications of his victory. No doubt, Trump humbled the experts (you’d hope) and blew up notions of how politicians should behave and what voters would allow. … Up close, the early race for the Democratic nomination can resemble a mass reconnaissance process, with the candidates as advance troops scouting an electorate that their party so badly misunderstood the last time around. How exactly do you run for president in 2019? What are the rules, and what should you say and who is even listening? … You can learn a lot when no one knows anything.”

TRUMP ASSERTS EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE ON CENSUS MATERIALS
Fox News: “The Justice Department said Wednesday that President Trump is asserting executive privilege over documents related his administration's decision to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, as House Democrats weigh a contempt resolution against Attorney General William Barr and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross over the controversy. Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings, the chairman of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, said the panel will move ahead with plans Wednesday to vote on holding Barr and Ross in contempt, accusing them of withholding documents. But he said a vote would be postponed until the afternoon, so lawmakers could digest the letter from the Justice Department about Trump invoking executive privilege. Stephen E. Boyd, the assistant attorney general, in a letter to Cummings on Wednesday cited the ‘president’s determination of an assertion of executive privilege.’ … ‘Unfortunately, rather than allowing the Department to complete its document production, you have chosen to go forward with an unnecessary and premature contempt vote,’ Boyd wrote.”
 
PLAY-BY-PLAY
Q Poll: Majority of Americans say a sitting president should be subject to criminal charges - Quinnipiac University

ICYMI: Jon Stewart gave an emotional testimony to Congress on behalf of 9/11 victim fund - USA Today

Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., wants to cancel August recess for spending bills - Roll Call

Trump Jr. to testify on Russia contacts before GOP-led Senate intelligence panel - Fox News

AUDIBLE: MAY THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOR
“It’s a ‘Hunger Games’ situation. I’ll start with that.” – Sen. Amy Klobuchar told reporters in Iowa over the weekend, per the NYT, in reference to the Democratic primary field.

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IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED, TRY 56 TIMES
Spectrum News13: “A pair of would be burglars attempted to break in to Daytona Beach Spy Shop of all places. … Private Investigator Rick Raymond, the store’s owner, said this is the first time anyone has attempted to break in to the store, which sells so many gadgets for catching people doing things they shouldn’t. … According to police, two people in a silver Chevy Camaro dressed in masks pulled up the business early Sunday morning. One of the suspects, with his face covered, attempted to break the front door window with a hammer. ‘I started counting the strikes to the window with this hammer, and he got to 30-something strikes… then he came back and hit it another 20 odd (times). So it was a total of 56 full-on hits with this hammer,’ said Raymond… The glass, which Raymond said is hurricane-resistant, never gave way. … Raymond said he is happy that he spent the extra money on the hurricane resistant glass…”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“For 26 years television has been free of cigarette ads. Why? Because TV persuades as nothing else, and we don't want young people--inveterate TV watchers--persuaded.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in Time magazine on June 24, 2001.

Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.