New poll shows Harris surging in state thought to be safe for Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris has made up significant ground on former President Trump in Iowa, a state previously thought to be safely in the former president’s column.

Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing the former president 47% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sunday.

The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.

"I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable" for Trump, pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told the Des Moines Register in reaction to the poll, the first Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll to be released since Harris became the Democratic nominee. "The race has tightened significantly."

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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (Getty Images)

Iowa has long been an afterthought in this year’s race, not typically included as a swing state along with the group of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with most analysts believing the state to be safely red. Trump won the state by nearly 10 percentage points in 2016 and a similar margin in 2020, a margin that would be seemingly difficult to overcome for Harris in 2024.

But Iowa has been a swing state in the past, going to Democratic Vice President Al Gore in 2000, Republican President George W. Bush in 2004, and former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

While one poll is unlikely to change the overall dynamic of the race, Harris’ ability to put former Midwestern swing states such as Iowa or Ohio in play could put her in a stronger position come November.

Former President Trump participates in a Fox News Town Hall with Sean Hannity at the New Holland Arena on Sept. 4, 2024, in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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The Harris surge in Iowa can largely be attributed to female voters, with the poll finding the vice president leads Trump among women 53% to 36%. Meanwhile, Trump leads among men in the state 59% to 32%.

Women are also more likely to vote than they were in previous versions of the survey, with 8% more women indicating they will vote in this year’s election than in the June poll.

Other groups that showed an uptick in plans to vote included those younger than 45 (10% increase), those from cities (6%), and those with a college degree (9%).

Vice President Kamala Harris during the debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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"This poll may be catching newly energized voters who thought they would sit out the election at the time our June poll was taken," Selzer said. 

The poll was conducted between Sept. 8 and 11, surveying 811 Iowa residents 18-years of age and older and has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.