New Jersey battleground House district poll finds tight race as GOP seeks to retain seat

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A battleground U.S. House is locked in a tight race as the first-term Republican incumbent fights to maintain the seat in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, according to a new poll. 

Rep. Tom Kean, Jr., R-N.J., maintains an advantage among voters on several key issues, including economic growth and jobs, crime, immigration and inflation. But on abortion and reproductive policy, Democrat challenger Sue Altman, a former leader of the state’s progressive Working Families Alliance, has the biggest edge, according to the new Monmouth University Poll released on Tuesday. 

The poll found 47% of voters trust Kean on economic growth and jobs, compared to 38% who favor Altman; and 47% trust the Republican incumbent's handling of crime, while 38% trust the Democratic challenger. On immigration, 40% prefer Kean compared to the 33% who trust Altman, and on inflation, the GOP congressman is preferred by 41% of voters compared to 37% who trust Altman more. 

The poll found 47% trust Altman on abortion and reproductive policy, while just 27% trust Kean. Despite the strong advantage, just one in four voters, or 26%, said abortion and reproductive policy was their top issue when deciding who to vote for in the U.S. House seat among the six polled. The poll found 28% listed inflation as their most important issue, 19% cited immigration, and 16% said economic growth. 

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Sue Altman speaks at a public forum, Aug. 23, 2016, in Bordentown, N.J., left, and Tom Kean Jr., R-N.J., speaks during a news conference in Ukraine, April 22, 2024.  (AP Photo)

New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District is among several seats encircling New York City that could determine who controls the House. GOP incumbents who won in 2022 are now fighting for second terms.

Fox News power rankings shows the district leans Republican.

"Altman’s advantage on abortion far surpasses the edge Kean has on any other issue. But that’s just one part of the equation," Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. "The other part is how many voters are actually motivated by this issue." 

The poll found that 46% of voters in the district supported Kean – 31% of those respondents said they'd definitely and 15% said they'd probably vote for the GOP incumbent. That compares to the 44% who support Altman, including the 32% who definitely and 12% who said they'd probably pick the Democrat. 

Rep. Tom Kean Jr., R-N.J., during the press conference on April 22, 2024, in Kyiv, Ukraine during a bipartisan congressional delegation's official visit.  (Vitalii Nosach/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

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In the final weeks of the contest, both candidates have an opportunity to court new votes, as the poll found 37% of respondents say they will definitely not vote for Kean and 38% will definitely not vote for Altman. 

"The level of support for each candidate may be equal right now, but there is more than enough room for one of them to break away," Murray said. "There is a sizable undecided vote and both candidates have relatively high ceilings for their potential vote share." 

Sue Altman attends the Green New Deal Network Day of Action rally on Aug. 19, 2021, in Atlantic City, New Jersey.  (Dave Kotinsky/Getty Images for Green New Deal Network)

Among voters polled, 49% viewed Kean as in sync with the district's residents, while 33% considered him out of touch. For Altman, 35% saw her as in line with the district, while 43% saw her out of sync. 

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"Which messages will really motivate your base? Altman’s across-the-board advantage on abortion is keeping her competitive. But Kean counters that with strength among voters without a college degree as well as an edge among white college-educated men who are more concerned about the economy than other issues," Murray said, adding, "Altman is doing well among minority voters in this district, but there is lower overall motivation to get out and vote this year. On top of that, they don’t see much difference between the two House candidates on the issue that matters most to them."