Impeach Biden or Mayorkas? What it takes for 'impeachment' proceedings to succeed in the House

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Impeachment calls mount as Hunter's ex-business partner to testify

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., reacts to Republicans increasing the pressure on corruption allegations on 'Hannity.'

A senior House Republican source tells Fox that potential impeachment for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is "the furthest along." 

Although that does not mean that it is that far along. It is just that GOPers believe they have the strongest case and evidence against Mayorkas.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., recently cracked the door open to impeaching Attorney General Merrick Garland and President Biden.

Fox is told those are something of high-level "trial balloons." The reason is that McCarthy wants to get a sense of what GOPers want to do where the votes may lie for impeaching anyone.

Will there be an impeachment?

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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is reportedly seeking the potential impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. (Sarah Silbiger)

It is about the math.

A senior House GOP source says Republican leaders will try to see "if there is one (impeachment) that could pass."

House Republicans are only operating with a four-seat majority and will need nearly every single GOP vote to send impeachment articles to the Senate. Threading the needle on anything as serious as impeachment will be a challenge.

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"A lot of our members will make decisions on how well the argument is made," a Republican leadership source told Fox News, noting that Mayorkas may be the best candidate for impeachment right now.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is hopeful of the House Republican impeachment investigations. (Alex Brandon)

The problem for the GOP is that there is a wide swath of Republican members in rock-ribbed conservative districts who would impeach Biden and many members of his cabinet "no matter what." However, actually executing a successful impeachment depends on the math.

There are 18 House Republicans who represent districts which President Biden carried in 2020. A vote to impeach any cabinet figure, let alone the president, could be a political death sentence for Republicans in those swing districts.

In 2019, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., opposed impeachment of former President Trump — until she did not. By August 2019, Pelosi observed a sea change in her caucus. A number of moderate Democratic freshman who represented swing districts were shifting their views on impeachment.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (Getty Images)

Political leaders must have their finger on the pulse of their members. Without that crucial insight, they risk looking like they are being led by their members, not leading themselves. So, Pelosi shifted her position.

McCarthy does not appear to be ready to impeach, but he must be mindful of where his members are, and be in front of them. McCarthy’s statements the past two weeks were likely efforts to "get in front" of his members, should the votes to impeach present themselves and there is a bona fide shift in that direction.

Calls for impeachment recently ramped up after Sen. Chuck Grassley released the FD-1023 form that found first son Hunter Biden allegedly received millions of dollars as a result of a bribery scheme involving Burisma CEO Mykola Zlochevsky. 

Mychola Zlochevsky is allegedly involved in a bribery scheme implicating the Biden family. (Fox News)

Rep. Pat Fallon, R-Texas, immediately wrote that the form is "damning evidence that Biden is compromised," while Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., said "Biden should be thrown out of office. Impeach!"

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While President Biden repeatedly denies having any knowledge of Hunter's business dealings, McCarthy recently highlighted vital evidence in the House GOP investigation of several payments going to "Biden shell companies" while he was serving as vice president.