How long can Kevin last? Here's what would have to happen for McCarthy to lose his job as House speaker

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A day does not pass without someone posing the following question to me: "How long is McCarthy going to last?"

We are barely three weeks into the 118th Congress.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., endured a protracted and heated floor election to become speaker earlier this month. McCarthy finally won over many of his skeptics, but not before making a key concession. It is called the "motion to vacate the chair." McCarthy’s opponents demanded that he make it easier for them to bounce the California Republican from the speakership if they do not like the job he is doing. In exchange, McCarthy foes would support his candidacy for speaker.

For now.

It is easy to see why the "how long is McCarthy going to last" question comes up a lot.

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Kevin McCarthy is the Speaker of the House for the 118th Congress. (Jabin Botsford)

The late Sen. and Rep. Claude Pepper, D-Fla., once opined that he did not buy green bananas. That is because you never know if you will still be around to slice the bananas and broadcast them around your bowl of Grape-Nuts.

A 60-pence head of lettuce purchased at Tesco famously (or, infamously) outlasted former British Prime Minister Liz Truss late last year. Truss lead the United Kingdom for only seven weeks. It marked the shortest tenure of any British Prime Minister.

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We don’t need to measure the potential brevity of McCarthy’s tenure against the shelf-life of other green, leafy vegetables. But it’s fair to say that after finally prevailing on the 15th vote for speaker in the wee hours of Jan. 7, McCarthy is now enjoying the salad days of his speakership.

McCarthy finally stemmed the uprising. However, his adversaries have now planted seeds of discontent and can use their dissatisfaction as a classic wedge against the speaker (bacon optional).

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy swears in the officers of the House of Representatives in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol Building on Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023 in Washington, D.C. (Kent Nishimura)

The marathon speaker’s election may just be the tip of the iceberg for McCarthy.

So, what does it take for someone to try to remove the speaker?

Let me take you into the weeds.

House Republicans ballyhooed their "rules package" for the 118th Congress. Adoption of the rules package — along with specific provisions — were critical to McCarthy’s ultimate success in the speaker’s vote.

McCarthy’s one-time opponents demanded that the rules package make it easier for them to call for a new speaker’s vote in the middle of the Congress. However, you’d be hard-pressed to find much about the motion to "vacate the chair" in the rules package adopted by the House earlier this month.

That’s because the rules package is silent on calling a no confidence vote for the Speaker.

Previous Congresses crafted rules packages which established a number of members who must sign on to a resolution to demand a vote for Speaker in the middle of a Congress. As McCarthy campaigned for speaker, there was chatter about making the threshold of members to call for a new speaker election in the dozens. Then it dropped to five. Finally, McCarthy relented, lowering the bar to one.

However, the House didn’t craft any special language about trying to evict the speaker in the rules package. It didn’t need to.

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy speaks during a news conference outside his office at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 24, 2023. McCarthy spoke on a range of issues, including committee assignments and Rep. George Santos. (Drew Angerer)

Under standard procedure, any lawmaker may raise what’s called "a question of privileges of the House." Members only take such action a handful of times during a two-year Congress. Lawmakers take advantage of this privilege if they believe the reputation and integrity of the House are at stake or if someone has impugned their reputation or motives.

In theory, a lawmaker could decide that the speaker is performing so poorly that the reputation of the House is at stake. So, a Member could possibly pose a question of privileges of the House, compelling the body to vote on whether to have another vote on the speakership. Under these terms, it takes a simple majority for the House to decide to have additional round of voting on the speaker. The question dies if a majority of members oppose it. It’s also possible the House could vote to table or kill or such an effort.

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However, if a majority of House members vote to call for a new speaker, the speaker election is on. The process would begin anew — just like it did on Jan. 3.

By rule, the House must continue to vote. And vote. And vote. Until it elects a speaker.

The speaker election for McCarthy was the longest in the House since 1859.

So, let’s dispel assumptions about the House voting again on speaker.

A sole member cannot oust McCarthy if they aren’t satisfied with the job he’s doing, but one member can start the process. It then takes a simple majority to agree with the lone member and launch yet another round of roll call votes for speaker. The House uses the same rules to re-elect McCarthy or tap another speaker. The winner must secure an outright majority of members casting ballots for a candidate by last name.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy won the vote for Speaker of the House in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 7, 2023. (Nathan Posner)

Here’s where this gets tricky.

What happens if someone calls a vote when McCarthy doesn’t have the right combination of members in Washington who support him? That’s the risk. With such a slim majority, it’s possible the House could vote to call a new speaker election. The House could also elect someone besides McCarthy as speaker on a subsequent vote.

It’s about the math.

McCarthy can only lose five members on any given roll call vote from his side. Republicans are already playing down a man. Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., is out for several weeks after a bad fall at his home.

So, you see the conundrum.

The absence of language in the rules package about what’s required to depose a speaker also creates an opportunity for mischief.

Republicans could have granted the option to try to take down the speaker to only Members of the majority. But the rules package is silent on this score. Thus, it’s possible (possible) that a mischievous Democrat could try to call for a speaker vote — just to wreak havoc in the House.

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It’s not clear that Democrats would do this. Although there’s no love lost between Democrats and McCarthy, it’s far from certain that the Democratic brain trust would support one of their members creating mayhem about the speakership. Another speaker’s vote would bring all House activity to a standstill.

An investigation is currently underway into several sets of classified documents found in President Biden's possession. (Susan Walsh)

Then again, if things get dicey for President Biden and GOP investigations and the classified document issue, this gambit may be exactly what Democrats want.

Congressional handicappers believe it’s inevitable that there will be some motion to oust McCarthy over the next two years, but it’s hard to gauge when that could come or under what circumstances.

This isn’t exactly Shakespeare’s "Julius Caesar" where the knives are out for the speaker right now.

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So don’t start measuring the length of McCarthy’s speakership against cabbage.

If there’s a new vote for speaker, it won’t be a Caesar Salad. But perhaps a "Julius" Caesar Salad.

But the issue hasn’t yet come to a head.