House Republicans privately worry about political fallout of government shutdown

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Some House Republicans are already privately worrying about how a partial government shutdown would affect their electoral chances in November.

"If we shut down, we lose," one lawmaker told Fox News Digital.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., unveiled his plan to avoid a partial shutdown in a private call with House GOP lawmakers on Wednesday morning, four sources told Fox News Digital.

It involves a six-month extension of fiscal 2024's federal funding levels known as a "continuing resolution" (CR) – to buy House and Senate negotiators more time to hash out next year's spending priorities – and would be linked to a bill adding a proof of citizenship requirement to the voter registration process.

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House Republican leaders are pushing for a plan to avoid a government shutdown that's tied to a Trump-backed elections bill. (Getty Images)

But with both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and the White House publicly opposing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, it's highly likely Johnson's plan would be dead on arrival if it passed the House.

"My problem isn't with the policy, which I support. My problem isn't with the messaging, which I think is strong. My problem is that I just don't think Chuck Schumer is going to agree to it," a second House Republican said of their concerns about the plan.

If the Senate and House don't agree on a way forward by Oct. 1, the country could be wracked by a partial government shutdown roughly a month before Election Day.

Past government shutdowns like those seen under the Obama and Trump administrations in 2013 and 2019, respectively, have traditionally seen Americans blame the GOP. 

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"In general, the voters seem to have a strong bias for blaming Republicans for shutdowns, which is understandable," the second Republican continued.

"We often have the more combative rhetoric leading up to a shutdown. We often are the ones who are most quick to claim that a shutdown isn't a real problem. And so I think we kind of telegraph to voters that we're OK with that. I think that makes it a little easier for the Democrats to try to stick us with [it]."

They added at the end of their explanation, "But it takes two to tango, and I don't think what we're asking for is too much."

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is opposed to the elections bill the House GOP is pushing. (Reuters/Cheney Orr)

Meanwhile, two sources familiar with the Tuesday House GOP call said questions were raised about what Johnson's next step would be if the Senate sent back a "clean" CR with no attachments, and concerns were aired about how a possible shutdown would affect vulnerable Republicans.

"The Republicans have the majority today because we won seats in California and [other blue states]. Those seem to be members who'd be most disadvantaged by a shutdown in the four weeks before an election," the second GOP lawmaker said.

Veteran GOP strategist Doug Heye said a possible shutdown could have less of an impact given it's a presidential election year, but he conceded "that's a real risk to take."

"Republicans usually get blamed for shutdowns, and that could play into Harris' ‘Trump-as-chaos’ argument," Heye said.

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He added, however, "that's not a bet I'd make. Especially when the speaker has offered a path to avoid this."

Other Republicans dismissed fears of political blowback in the event of a government shutdown.

Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., who is not committed or opposed to Johnson's plan, told Fox News Digital this week, "The legacy media makes these shutdowns worse than they are. … Nobody loses their house, nobody loses a dime. They all get made whole."

Republican presidential nominee former President Trump has called on House Republicans to leverage a shutdown. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

A partial government shutdown would see some non-emergency federal services halted and potentially thousands of government employees furloughed.

Any federal payments paused during a shutdown are retroactively made to their recipients, however. 

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Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, one of the architects of the SAVE Act, would not say whether he'd want a shutdown if the Johnson plan failed to pass.

"I’m not going to play the shutdown game … the press wants to make it about a shutdown. Democrats want to make this about a shutdown," Roy said. "We’re offering to fund the government – all manners of sin, by the way, in that government…we’re willing to do that, but these guys need to make sure our elections are secure."

"If [Democrats] want to shut the government down, that’s on them."