Pennsylvania could decide who wins election, Fox News Decision Desk says
Fox News Decision Desk Director Arnon Mishkin on what to look out for on election night as the results come in and how Pennsylvania could be the final indicator on who will win the White House.
HARRISBURG, Pa. – As Vice President Kamala Harris returned to Pennsylvania on Wednesday for her second trip in three days, three new polls indicate an incredibly close race between her and former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state with less than a week until Election Day.
Trump stands at 47% support among Pennsylvania likely voters, with Harris at 46%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. And a CNN poll indicated the race was a dead heat, with both major party nominees at 48% support.
Meanwhile, a Monmouth University survey indicated just under half of registered voters in Pennsylvania say they will either definitely or have already voted for the vice president and Democratic presidential nominee (42%) or will probably vote for her (5%).
An identical number will either definitely or have already voted for Trump (42%) or will probably vote for the former president and Republican presidential nominee (5%), in a separate question asked by the pollster.
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Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party presidential nominee, headlines a rally at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and Expo Center, in Harrisburg, Pa. on Oct. 30, 2024 (Fox News - Bryan Llenas)
19 electoral votes at stake, Pennsylvania is the largest of the seven key battleground states whose razor-thin margins decided President Biden's 2020 election victory over Trump and which will likely determine who wins the 2024 presidential election.
In the Quinnipiac survey - conducted Oct. 24-28 - Trump's one-point edge is a switch from their early October survey, when Harris held a three-point advantage.
In the new poll, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives two percent support and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver stands at one percent.
According to the Monmouth survey, when third-party and independent candidates are factored into the results, Trump stands at 47% among registered voters in Pennsylvania, with Harris at 46% and 4% saying they are definitely or probably backing another candidate.
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The release from Monmouth University on their new poll emphasized in the headline that in Pennsylvania "it's really, really close."
"The bottom line is this was an incredibly close race in September and remains so today," Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said, as he compared the results of his new survey in the Keystone State with his previous poll in Pennsylvania.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at The PPL Center on Oct. 29, 2024 in Allentown, Pennsylvania. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
The pollster spotlighted that Trump "continues to have a significant advantage among white voters without a college degree – who make up nearly half of Pennsylvania’s voter pool," topping Harris 60%-35% among this group.
However, the survey indicates that Harris holds a large 58%-37% lead among White college graduates, and voters who are Black, Hispanic and of other races (62% to 25%).
The Quinnpiac poll shows a widening of the gender gap.
Men backed Trump 57 – 37 percent - up nine points from their earlier October survey - while women back Harris 55 – 39 percent, which was mostly unchaged from earlier in the month.
"The gender gap widens with Trump increasing his lead among men, as what remains a very tight race heads into the final stretch," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy emphasized.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, arrives at rally at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and Expo Center, on Oct. 30, 2024 in Harrisburg, Pa. (Fox News - Paul Steinhauser)
With six days to go until Election Day, the new surveys follows other recent polls that point to an incredibly close contest in the Keystone State. A CBS News poll conducted Oct. 22-28 pointed to both major party candidates deadlocked at 49%.
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Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, are the three Rust Belt states that make up the Democrats' so-called "Blue Wall."
Democrats reliably won all three states for a quarter-century before Trump narrowly captured them in the 2016 election over Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton to win the White House.
Four years later, in 2020, Biden carried all three states by razor-thin margins to put them back in the Democrats' column and defeat Trump.
Both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, as well as their running mates, have made repeated stops in the three states this summer and autumn.
The vice president on Wednesday, speaking in front of a large crowd at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and Expo Center, urged her supporters to "get this done."
Harris made multiple stops Sunday in Philadelphia, the state's largest city. Trump held a campaign event Tuesday in Delaware County, in suburban Philadelphia, before holding a rally in Allentown.
"I don't like to speak too early, but you have to get out and vote because we … we want a big, beautiful number. We're leading in every single swing state. Because, normally Republicans, they like to vote at the end no matter what you say, they like to vote at the end," Trump said from the Allentown rally.
Trump's new pitch for early voting stands in contrast to his years of blaming the practice for what he continues to claim - without proof - that his 2020 election loss was due to "massive voter fraud."
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Since Haris replaced Biden atop the Democrats' 2024 ticket after the president dropped out of the race in July, Fox News found the vice president has visited Pennsylvania at least 15 times, as of Tuesday.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz team up for the first time on the campaign trail, hours after the vice president named Walz as her running mate on the Democrats' ticket, in Philadelphia on Aug. 6, 2024. (Fox News - Paul Steinhauser)
Philadelphia was where Harris first teamed up with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz after announcing him as her running mate. Harris hunkered down in Pittsburgh - the state's second-largest city - to prepare for her first and only debate with Trump, which was held in September in Philadelphia.
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Trump has also visited the state at least 15 times since the end of July, Fox News found. Trump’s history with Pennsylvania was underscored by an assassination attempt on his life on July 13 in Butler, when a man named Mathew Crooks opened fire on Trump and his supporters. Trump was injured on the side of his head by the shooting, and two other rallygoers were also injured. Local man Corey Comperatore died protecting his family during the violence.
Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Trump’s running mate, has visited the state at least 13 times since the start of August. Walz has visited Pennsylvania at least nine times since August, data compiled by Fox News found.
Both campaigns have spent more than half a billion dollars on ads alone in Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported last week. Democrats spent more than $294.7 million in Pennsylvania, while Republicans spent $243.6 million in the Keystone State. The funds spent far exceed ad buys in other battleground states, including Michigan, which trails Pennsylvania ad expenses by a combined $185 million.
AdImpact, a leading national ad-tracking firm, reported that the Trump campaign has reserved $5.8 million in ad time to run spots in the final stretch ahead of Election Day, with the Harris campaign shelling out $4.6 million.
When Biden narrowly carried Pennsylvania four years ago, Democrats enjoyed a larger margin of registered voters compared to their Republican counterparts, at 4.2 million to 3.5 million. The data shows that Democrats had a registration advantage over Republicans by 685,818 voters during the election that Biden won by 80,555 votes.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump go back and forth during their first and only debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The GOP has whittled down that lead this year to a margin of 297,824. When comparing registered voters this election year to 2020, Democrats face a net loss of 257,281 voters, while Republicans have a net gain of 428,537 registered voters.
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More than double the number of previously registered Democrats changed their party affiliation this cycle compared to the number of registered Republicans who left the party. Pennsylvania Department of State data shows 54,668 registered Democrats changed their party affiliation compared to 25,634 Republicans.
Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., greets Bruce Springsteen at a campaign rally with former President Barack Obama supporting Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, Monday, Oct. 28, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Besides being the biggest of the presidential battlegrounds, Pennsylvania is also home to one of a handful of crucial Senate races that will likely determine if the GOP wins back the chamber's majority.
According to the Monmouth poll, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. holds a slight edge over Republican challenger Dave McCormick.
Both the CNN poll and the Quinnipiac survey indicated Casey with a three-point margin over McCormick.
Forty percent of those questioned said they would definitely vote for Casey, with another 7% saying they would probably cast a ballot for the senator. Thirty-six percent said they would definitely vote for McCormick, with 8% saying they would probably cast a ballot for the Republican nominee.
Fox News' Maria Paronich contributed to this report
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