GOP hopes tough-on-crime message defuses abortion backlash with suburban women

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OCrime could bring Republican 'red wave' in the House in November: Poll

Fox News senior correspondent Laura Ingle on a new poll which shows Americans favor Republicans to handle crime in a 'post Labor Day pivot' on 'America Reports.'

Republicans are hoping that a tough stance on crime through the midterm election will make inroads with suburban women upset over the Supreme Court's decision to overturn national abortion protections.

GOP candidates from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin have increasingly made crime the centerpiece of their campaigns this midterm election cycle, preferring to focus on spiking crime rates across America's cities even in the face of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Political strategists say the focus on crime, including illegal immigration and the opioid crisis, is meant to counteract the boost Democrats have received with suburban, college-educated women over concerns about access to abortion. Election strategists from both sides acknowledge that problems at the border give the GOP a credible line of attack.

"The [Biden] administration's handling of the border crisis makes Democrats even more vulnerable on crime," said Colin Strother, a Democratic political strategist. "This is the GOP's Hail Mary with suburban women — hoping to convince them that taking away their basic human right to healthcare is a fair swap for the same tough-on-crime message they've used for 60 years."

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GOP candidates from Pennsylvania to California have increasingly made crime the centerpiece of their campaigns.  (Rashaad McFadden/Getty Images)

Republicans believe that crime is more of a concern to suburban women, especially in states where abortion laws are unlikely to change immediately because of Roe being overturned.

"Everyone wants to feel safe in their communities, wants to have their children be able to play outside without any issues," said Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican consultant who has worked on several high-profile campaigns. "The Supreme Court striking down Roe definitely energized Democrats and suburban women, but I don't know if that trumps being able to walk down a street without being victimized by crime."

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GOP candidates appear to agree. Most have sought to downplay the issue of abortion and have made fighting crime a focal point of their campaigns.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania and a cardiothoracic surgeon by training, has a nuanced position on abortion.  He has come out against criminal penalties for people who seek out abortions or doctors that perform them. The one-time celebrity television star has also been quick to note that despite being strongly pro-life, he supports exceptions for abortion in the case of rape, incest, or maternal health.

Oz, on the other hand, has less of a nuanced opinion on crime and has compared it to cancer.

Oz, a one-time tv celebrity and cardiothoracic surgeon by training, compares crime to cancer.  (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

"What makes cancer, cancer is that you have cells that are sociopathic, that don’t pay attention to the cells around them," said Oz when receiving the endorsement of a police group on Monday. "They don’t just destroy themselves through their criminal behavior. They destroy everything around them. That’s the real risk here."

Since winning the Republican primary in June, Oz has made crime the explicit focus of his campaign. Oz has been quick to paint his Democratic opponent as weak on violent felons. Recent polls show Oz's efforts gaining steam and the contest narrowing significantly.

Other GOP candidates are following a similar strategy. Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, one of the most vulnerable Republicans seeking reelection this year, is running ads accusing his Democratic challenger of wanting to defund the police and abolish U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Johnson has also called for a public referendum to define Wisconsin's statewide abortion policy law. The tactical approach seems to be working, as polls show he has narrowed the lead of his Democratic opponent to within the margin of error.

Recent polls show that crime is surpassing abortion as the top election issue among Americans. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

Not everyone believes Republicans will be able to defuse the issue of abortion with a tough-on-crime message. Democratic political strategists say their party's candidates have more room to maneuver on crime than Republicans have on the issue of abortion.

"Republicans are still facing attacks over where they stand on a national abortion ban or whether they favor exceptions," said Brad Bannon, a Democratic consultant who has advised progressive campaigns and causes. "Any answer they give that appeals to moderates or independents likely hurts them with more conservative elements of the GOP base."

But national polls show crime surpassing abortion as the top election issue among Americans. A recent ABC/Washington Post poll released over the weekend found that 69 percent of voters rated crime as "highly important," compared to only 62 percent that said the same for abortion.

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"Abortion and crime are visceral issues that have an immediate concern to female voters," said Mike Madrid, a consultant who advises both parties and helped found the Never-Trump Lincoln Project. "Both are based on fears in a way, the fear of losing reproductive autonomy versus the fear of somebody breaking into your car, your home, somebody robbing you, or raping you."

"The Republican message seems to be working," added Madrid. "The only question is will it be enough."