Is George P. Bush’s crushing defeat in Texas the end of the line for a Republican Party dynasty?

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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, facing multiple scandals but very popular with conservatives for his legal crusades against President Biden’s administration, walloped challenger George P. Bush by a more than two-to-one margin in the GOP primary runoff election Tuesday.

Bush, who was the last elected member of his family’s political dynasty – which over four generations has produced two presidents, a vice president, a senator, two governors and a congressman – was long viewed as a rising star in the GOP and was elected and re-elected to the statewide office of Texas land commissioner. He acknowledged in a statement Tuesday night that "things didn’t go as we planned."

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And in the wake of his defeat, Bush’s political future and the survival of his family’s brand are very much in doubt.

George P. Bush, Republican candidate for Texas attorney general, speaks during a campaign event in Lakeway, Texas, on Feb. 10, 2022. (Matthew Busch/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

"History has shown there can be second acts in American politics, so I wouldn’t say never. But I think that he is politically greatly diminished from the results last night," longtime Texas based GOP strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Fox News.

And he predicted that in the short term "I think it’s more likely he goes into the private sector."

Matt Mackowiak, a veteran Austin, Texas-based Republican consultant and chair of Travis County GOP, said, "You can never count out anyone who can raise money, but George P. Bush’s political future is uncertain. I expect him to finish his term and return to private business as he considers his future. It’s not clear when another Bush family member will win elected office."

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Bush is the son of former two-term Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, nephew to former President George W. Bush, and grandson of the late former President George H.W. Bush, whose move to the Lone Star State in 1948 ignited a new era in Texas Republican politics. The elder Bush won election to Congress in Texas. He later served eight years as vice president before winning the presidency in 1988. His son George W. Bush was elected and re-elected governor before winning the White House in 2000.

The Bush family was GOP aristocracy for decades, but the brand lost its luster after President George W. Bush finished his second term with approval ratings well into negative territory. And the Bush family’s well documented war of words with former President Donald Trump during the 2016 Republican presidential primaries – when Trump repeatedly belittled, humiliated and crushed rival Jeb Bush en route to the nomination – further diminished the Bush family’s clout.

Trump’s 2016 White House victory transformed the Republican Party. And the former president, 16 months removed from the White House, remains the most popular and influential politician among Republicans. 

Republican attorney general candidate George P. Bush campaigns in Victoria, Texas, on May 18, 2022. (George P. Bush campaign)

While George P. Bush broke with his family and made a concerted effort to land Trump’s endorsement, the former president ended up backing Paxton in the attorney general showdown.

Asked if his family name is a hindrance, Bush told Fox News last week, "I think it actually helps me. It helps open the door on conversation on the trail… My family’s always offered a public service. It’s not about coveted titles or wearing fancy lapel pins, it’s about doing the right thing for Texas."

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But in a Fox News interview, Paxton last week said: "I’m kind of in the way of the Bush dynasty plan, to move that guy up to bigger and higher offices…. It is a reality that he’s kind of the last one and they had big plans for him to be probably governor or president of the United States and this was just a steppingstone."

In his statement following his defeat, Bush said, "I want to thank my mom and dad… and my entire family for all their love and support."

Asked last week by Fox News if he would have another political act if he lost to Paxton, Bush pointed out that "I still will serve Texans as land commissioner for the rest of this year. I was elected for four years, not three and a half years."

As for what would be next, he said "we’ll worry about that at the time."

Bush’s landslide loss spurred countless Bush dynasty obituaries.

Former New Hampshire Attorney General Tom Rath, a longtime GOP consultant who served as an adviser on the presidential campaigns of George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, said, "I don’t think there’s anyone at the moment that’s looking to the Bush family for either a candidate or leadership right now."

He noted that former President George W. Bush’s stature has grown since he left the White House over 13 years ago, but "that is not based upon any political will he can impose on the party. It’s just not there."

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Rath said "the Bushes are largely not part of the [Republican Party political] conversation."

And Mackowiak highlighted that "It’s been 18 years since George W. Bush appeared on a ballot. The party has changed, the base has changed, and the times have changed."