The Fox News Decision Desk projected that Republicans will take back control of the Senate in 2025 once the 119th Congress is sworn in.
The GOP officially won enough Senate seats in the 2024 elections to take the majority back from the Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has led the upper chamber since 2021.
Republicans had a significantly more favorable map in terms of which Senate seats were up for election this cycle than the Democrats.
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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, left, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Getty Images)
The Republicans up for re-election were all in relatively safe states, and the party was all but guaranteed a win in West Virginia to replace outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va. With a West Virginia win and retaining all incumbents who were up for re-election, the GOP would be at 50 members already.
Democrats were in a much more difficult position, expected to lose Manchin's seat and having to fight a tight battle for outgoing Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's Arizona Senate seat.
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Sen. Joe Manchin talks to reporters following a vote on Jan. 23, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
At the same time, several incredibly vulnerable Senate Democrats just so happened to be up for re-election this cycle, including Montana's Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, in red-voting states, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, in presidential battleground states.
If that weren't enough, the seat of outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., was also at severe risk of going red.
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Tester was favored to lose his race in red Montana. (Tom Williams/Getty Images)
Democrats only had a 51-member majority over their Republican counterparts, who had a 49-person conference.
The party could not afford to lose practically any races in the 2024 elections, given their many vulnerabilities.
What made the 2024 elections even more difficult for Democrats to hang onto the majority was the sharp decrease in split-ticket voting. In several states, the races were very likely to be decided by the winner of the presidential race, as voters were expected to pick one party and vote for candidates in that column down the ballot.
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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell arrives at the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 26, 2024. (AP/J. Scott Applewhite)
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When Republicans vote for their new leader this month, they'll also be selecting the next person to control the Senate floor after Schumer. The new GOP leader will succeed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the longest-serving party leader in Senate history.
The newly elected Republican senators will participate in a secret ballot.
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