Fox News Poll: Biden holds commanding lead for Democratic nomination

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Joe Biden is the lone top tier candidate in the Democratic nomination race, according to the latest Fox News Poll.

The former vice president captures 33 percent support among Democratic primary voters (up one point since June).  That’s more than double any of the second-tier competitors, which includes Bernie Sanders at 15 percent (+2), Elizabeth Warren at 12 percent (+3) and Kamala Harris at 10 percent (+2).

Another six candidates receive at least two percent support:  Pete Buttigieg (5 percent), Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang (3 percent a piece), and Cory Booker, John Hickenlooper, and Beto O’Rourke (each at 2 percent).  All others receive one percent or less.

Having the most voters in nearly two decades feeling positive about the economy and 52 percent approving of his job on the economy should position President Trump well to win re-election.

However, the exact same number, 33 percent, think economic conditions will get better whether Trump gets re-elected or a Democrat is elected.  A touch more think the economy will get worse if Trump wins (39 percent) than if a Democrat wins (36 percent).

That ambivalence about the economy contributes to Trump’s support staying between 39-42 percent in hypothetical 2020 presidential match-ups.

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“When the economy is good, incumbents typically have the wind at their back,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.

“The president has an obvious target group -- the 10 percent who approve of his handling of the economy, but aren’t voting for him.”

Trump trails Biden by ten points and Sanders by six.  He edges both Warren and Harris by one.  None of the candidates hit 50 percent support.

Biden’s is the only lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error -- notable when a majority of Democratic primary voters prioritizes ousting Trump.

By a 56-41 percent margin, primary voters say supporting a candidate who can beat Trump will be more important than supporting one who will fundamentally change how the economy works. 

Among those saying winning is more important, Biden is the top choice by a wide 26-point margin. Those prioritizing major economic change support Biden and Sanders about equally.

There are indications the nomination process is pulling the Democrats left.  While 9 percent think the Democratic field is too conservative and 37 percent say it is “about right,” some 40 percent say the field is too liberal.  Nineteen percent of Democratic primary voters agree. 

The new poll, released Thursday, also finds some of the policy proposals discussed in the Democratic primary are out of sync with the broader electorate.

Getting rid of private health insurance and moving to a government-run health care system is favored among Democratic primary voters by a 30-point margin, but opposed among all voters by 5 points.

By a 15-point margin, primary voters favor providing health insurance coverage to undocumented immigrants.  Voters overall oppose that by a 28-point margin.

Decriminalizing entering the U.S. without proper documentation is favored among primary voters by 10 points and opposed by voters by 23 points.

There is one proposal both groups like -- changing the health care system so every American can buy into Medicare.  Democratic primary voters favor that by 64 points and voters by 42.

By a 14-point margin, voters say Democrats would do a better job than Republicans handling health care, and they have a favorable view of Obamacare by a 9-point margin (that climbs to +69 among Democrats).

Meanwhile, there is a 19-point gap between voters overall and Democratic primary voters on the U.S. moving more toward socialism:  53 percent of primary voters say that would be a good thing compared to 34 percent of all voters.

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Biden leads (28 percent) among primary voters saying a move toward socialism is a good thing, followed by Sanders (18 percent) and Warren (15 percent).  His advantage widens among those who think that would be a bad idea:  Biden (36 percent), Sanders (14 percent), Harris (8 percent), and Warren (6 percent).

Pollpourri

A federal judge Wednesday temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s policy of making asylum seekers apply in countries they pass through on the way to the U.S. southern border.

By a 9-point margin, voters favor (50-41 percent) allowing refugees from Central American countries to seek political asylum in the U.S.  Among Democrats, it is favored by a big 52-point margin (72-20 percent).

Sixty percent of voters are concerned about the treatment of migrants detained on the U.S.-Mexico border, including 82 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Republicans.

Conducted July 21-23, 2019 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,004 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones.  The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters, and 4.5 points for Democratic primary voters (454).