New poll finds Joe Biden leading in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders has most enthusiastic base
Jose Aristimuno, former DNC deputy press secretary, breaks down what the new Quinnipiac poll in New Hampshire say about the state of the Democratic presidential race.
Democrats’ strong desire for a candidate who can defeat President Trump gives Joe Biden the edge in the nomination race, while Hispanic voters help both Biden and Bernie Sanders top Trump in hypothetical 2020 matchups.
That’s according to a Fox News Poll of Nevada voters.
In the nomination contest, Biden receives the backing of 24 percent of Democratic caucusgoers, followed by Sanders and Elizabeth Warren each at 18 percent.
Next is Pete Buttigieg at 8 percent, Tom Steyer at 5 percent, Kamala Harris at 4 percent, Andrew Yang 3 percent, and Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar at 2 percent apiece. Cory Booker and Julian Castro each get 1 percent.
Biden (23 percent) and Warren (21 percent) receive nearly equal backing among white caucusgoers, followed by Sanders (13 percent) and Buttigieg (12 percent).
The top picks among Hispanics are Sanders (31 percent) and Biden (24 percent), with Warren a distant third (10 percent). Buttigieg garners 1 percent.
Self-identified liberals prefer Biden (25 percent) and Warren (25 percent) over Sanders (18 percent) and Buttigieg (10 percent). Moderates and conservatives like Biden (24 percent) and Sanders (18 percent), with no others hitting double digits.
Sanders is the clear choice for those under age 45, while those 45 and over go for Biden.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS
Nominating a candidate who can beat Trump (74 percent extremely important) is far more important to Nevada Democratic voters than one who shares their views on major issues (41 percent extremely important). Biden is the number one choice among both of those groups.
Caucusgoers split 46-46 percent between wanting a candidate who will build on former President Obama’s legacy and one who will take a new and different approach. Legacy voters go heavily for Biden, while those wanting a new approach give a slight edge to Sanders.
More Warren backers (67 percent) are extremely interested in the election than those supporting Biden (62 percent) and Sanders (47 percent).
On the other hand, Biden (70 percent) and Sanders (70 percent) have more “strong” supporters than Warren (61 percent).
Nevada’s February 22 Democratic caucus is 100 days away, soon after elections in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Fifty-three percent of Nevada voters rate the economy positively, including 22 percent calling it excellent. For comparison, 14 percent of voters nationally rate the economy as excellent.
Meanwhile, more disapprove (52 percent) than approve (45 percent) of the job Trump is doing. His 45 percent approval roughly matches his 2016 vote share, as Hillary Clinton won the Silver State 48-46 percent.
Women help drive Trump’s job rating underwater: 38 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove. Men approve by 53-43 percent, resulting in a 32-point gender gap.
Forty-three percent of Nevadans think Trump should be impeached and removed from office, 4 percent say impeached but not removed, and 46 percent oppose impeachment altogether.
The poll was conducted November 10-13, which includes one night after the House Intelligence Committee held televised hearings on impeachment Wednesday.
Despite Trump’s negative job rating, he remains competitive in potential matchups tested. Both Biden (47-40) and Sanders (47-40) have a 7-point advantage over Trump (outside the poll’s margin of error), and Warren is up by 3 (44-41). Buttigieg and Trump tie at 41 percent each. No candidate hits 50 percent and 13-18 percent are undecided or would back a third-party candidate.
Biden and Sanders do better against Trump in large part because of stronger support among men and Hispanics. Among men, Trump bests Biden by 5 points and Sanders by 4, yet he leads Warren by 12 points. Hispanics pick Biden and Sanders over Trump by 26 points, while Warren’s advantage is 18 points.
“These results reinforce the notion that Nevada remains a battleground state,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “But the state’s underlying demographic changes make it challenging for Republicans.”
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Warren and Buttigieg are likely hurt by some voters believing it is too soon for a woman (17 percent) or a gay president (41 percent).
Majorities of Nevada voters say the country is ready to elect a female president (76 percent), a Jewish president (67 percent), and a Latino/Hispanic president (67 percent). Views split 46-41 percent over electing a gay or lesbian.
Among Democrats: 83 percent feel the United States is ready to elect a woman president, 68 percent a Jewish leader, 68 percent a Latino/Hispanic candidate, and 53 percent a gay president.
While about two-thirds of Republicans say the country would elect a candidate who is female (66 percent), Jewish (67 percent) or Latino/Hispanic (65 percent), over half think the country isn’t ready for a gay president (35 yes vs. 51 no).
Conducted November 10-13, 2019 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,506 Nevada voters who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. Respondents were randomly selected from a statewide voter file, and 627 were screened to identify potential participants in the Democratic caucus. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 4 points for Democratic caucusgoers.
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