Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, New York kick off early in-person voting

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CNN data guru marvels at Trump flipping independent vote in key swing states

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten marveled over former President Trump’s current small lead with independent voters in crucial swing states, suggesting it’s evidence that Trump has good momentum that could win him the election in November.

Florida, Michigan, New York and New Jersey all kicked off early in-person voting Saturday as former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris make their final pitch to voters.

There are now just nine days until Election Day, and Trump is hosting a massive rally at New York City's Madison Square Garden on Sunday. Trump is attempting to make a play for New York as well as assist vulnerable Republicans in the state.

Meanwhile, Harris is calling on big names to support her on the campaign trail. Harris' campaign has adopted an aggressive stance against Trump in the final weeks of campaigning, with the vice president comparing him to Hitler. Michelle Obama also claimed he suffers from "obvious mental decline" and "gross incompetence."

A New York Times/Siena College survey found Harris polling at the lowest numbers for a Democratic presidential nominee in decades on Saturday, indicating Trump may have an opening.

Michigan is one of the most competitive states this cycle

Michigan shocked the country in 2016 when it backed former President Trump by 0.23 points, or a mere 10,704 votes.

Since then, the state has delivered for Democrats, with a nearly three-point win for President Biden, the election and re-election of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and, in the last midterms, a state government trifecta.

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Even so, this will be a competitive race. Recent high-quality polls have it within the margin of error.

Democrats do well in the southeastern part of the state, and Biden was able to win in 2020 by bringing out Black voters and gaining in the Detroit metro area. Flipping Kent County, home to Grand Rapids and a representative mix of urban, suburban and rural voters, was also crucial to his victory. Trump will need to take it back for a statewide win in 2024.

Voting booths at a polling center inside PS 103 Hector Fontanez in the Wakefield neighborhood of the Bronx borough of New York June 25, 2024. (Getty)

Michigan’s population grew by 2% over the last decade with growth concentrated in the Grand Rapids area. Since then, the state has experienced a decline, especially in Detroit.

The Great Lake State will also vote for a new senator after Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow decided not to run for re-election this year. House Rep. Elissa Slotkin hopes to keep the seat in Democratic hands and has an edge in this competitive race. She faces GOP candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers.

Both the presidential and Senate races are ranked Lean D on the Fox News Power Rankings.

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Key down ballot races in today’s early voting states

Voting also begins Saturday in several battleground House districts. For a full list of competitive races, see the latest Senate and House rankings.

• Michigan’s 7th District: Slotkin is vacating this south central Michigan district, which she flipped by a 5.4-point margin in the midterms. This year, it’s a battle between two former state senators — Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett. This race is a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.
• Michigan’s 8th District: Next door, the 8th district is also without an incumbent. Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring after 12 years in the House, making this a race between Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican businessman Paul Junge. The seat includes Flint and the Tri-Cities area, so winning the working-class vote will be critical. It’s also a toss-up on the Power Rankings.
• Michigan’s 10th District: Republican incumbent Rep. John James has the edge in the 10th district. He’s up against Democrat and former judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga. The district includes southern Macomb County and Rochester. Holding on to the outer suburban vote there will be critical to a GOP win. This is a Lean R race.
• New Jersey’s 7th District: New Jersey’s 7th district is the only competitive House race on the state map. The district includes Trump’s Bedminster Golf Club and a raft of wealthy, suburban areas. It became more Republican in the last round of redistricting. Freshman Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is the incumbent. He faces local Democrat and political organizer Sue Altman. It was last ranked Lean R.
• New York’s 1st District: Occupying the east side of Long Island, New York’s 1st district is one of the most politically diverse in the region. It includes the ultra-wealthy Hamptons suburbs and farming communities in Suffolk County. Republican Rep. Nick LaLota, who replaced Rep. Lee Zeldin in 2023, is the incumbent against former CNN anchor and Democrat John Avlon. This race is ranked Lean R.
• New York’s 4th District: Closer to New York City, the ultra-competitive 4th district in Nassau County includes Long Beach, Garden City and Uniondale, where former President Trump held a rally last month. Incumbent Rep. Anthony D’Esposito spoke at that event. He’s up against local Democratic Town Supervisor Laura Gillen. It’s ranked Toss-up on the rankings.

Fox News Power Rankings House chamber (Fox News)

• New York’s 17th District: This Hudson Valley district offers one of the highest-profile races of the cycle. This race was decided by less than 2,000 votes in the midterms, when voters elected moderate Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. This year, he’ll face the former occupant of this seat, Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones. It’s another Toss-up.
• New York’s 18th District: Into the mid-Hudson Valley and the Catskills, the 18th District is represented by another well-known moderate congressman, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan. And like its neighbor, this race was tight in the midterms. It was ultimately settled by fewer than 5,000 votes. GOP Rep. Alison Esposito is the Republican candidate here. She served in the New York Police Department for 25 years before announcing her run. It’s a Lean D district.
• New York’s 19th District: The third Hudson Valley battleground with a moderate incumbent, the 19th District includes the Catskills and the Finger Lakes. GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro flipped this seat in the midterms with a roughly 5,000-vote margin. This year, he faces Democratic attorney Josh Riley. This race is a Toss-up.
• New York’s 22nd District: Further upstate to Syracuse and Utica, GOP Rep. Brandon Williams, first elected in the midterms, is threatened by redistricting. He faces Democratic challenger and state Sen. John Mannion in a race ranked Lean D on the Power Rankings.

IN BID FOR DISGRUNTLED REPUBLICANS, HARRIS TEAMS UP WITH CHENEY IN GOP BIRTHPLACE

How to vote in Florida

This is a guide to registration and early voting. For comprehensive and up-to-date information on voter eligibility, processes and deadlines, please go to Vote.gov and the election website for Florida.

Voting by mail

Florida began absentee voting in late September. Applicants do not need to provide an excuse to receive a ballot. The state must receive a ballot application by Oct. 24, and that ballot must be delivered to state officials by Nov. 5.

Early in-person voting

Start dates for early in-person voting vary by county in Florida, but the earliest counties began Saturday. Check the state's website for more information.

Voter registration

The deadline for Florida residents to register to vote was Oct. 7.

Fox News Power Rankings presidential map (Fox News )

How to vote in Michigan

This is a guide to registration and early voting. For comprehensive and up-to-date information on voter eligibility, processes and deadlines, please go to Vote.gov and the election website for Michigan.

Voting by mail

Michigan began absentee voting in late September. Applicants do not need to provide an excuse to receive a ballot. The state must receive a ballot application by Nov. 1, and that ballot must be delivered to state officials by Nov. 5.

Early in-person voting

Start dates for early in-person voting vary by county in Michigan, but the earliest counties began on Saturday. Check the state's website for more information.

Voter registration

The deadline for Michigan residents to register to vote online or by mail was Oct. 21. They can register in person at any point during early voting or on election day.

How to vote in New York

This is a guide to registration and early voting. For comprehensive and up-to-date information on voter eligibility, processes and deadlines, please go to Vote.gov and the election website for New York.

Voting by mail

New York began absentee voting in late September. Applicants do not need to provide an excuse to receive a ballot. The state must receive a ballot application by Oct. 26, and that ballot must be delivered to state officials by Nov. 5.

Early in-person voting

New York kicked off early in-person voting on Saturday, and it will continue through Nov. 3.

Voter registration

New York residents can register to vote online, in person or by mail through Oct. 26. 

Fox News Power Rankings presidential forecast (Fox News)

How to vote in New Jersey

This is a guide to registration and early voting. For comprehensive and up-to-date information on voter eligibility, processes and deadlines, please go to Vote.gov and the election website for New Jersey.

Voting by mail

New Jersey began absentee voting in late September. Applicants do not need to provide an excuse to receive a ballot. The state must receive a ballot application by Oct. 29, and that ballot must be delivered to state officials by Nov. 5.

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Early in-person voting

New Jersey kicked off early in-person voting on Saturday, and it will continue through Nov. 3.

Voter registration

New Jersey residents were required to register to vote by Oct. 15.