Democrats hold slight edge over GOP, abortion more important to voters than inflation, poll shows

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GOP warned about 'overconfidence' ahead of midterms

Morgan Ortagus, Josh Kraushaar, Kevin Roberts and Mo Elleithee weigh in on several key topics, including alleged GOP 'overconfidence' going into November and voter enthusiasm among both parties.

Democrats are leading in the tight midterm race with a 4% edge over the GOP on the generic congressional ballot, as voters rank abortion as a leading issue over inflation.

A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll shook up the midterms, after 44% of voters said that if the election were held today they would vote for a Democrat candidate, while 40% said they would vote for a Republican. About 16% still remain undecided.

Republicans have taken a hit over the past month, after a June poll from the university found Democrats and Republicans were evenly split on the generic congressional ballot with both parties receiving 40% of the vote.

While the economy remains most important to voters in the upcoming election — with 20% saying it is the most important issue — the poll revealed that many believe abortion trumps inflation as the most important issue this election cycle. Nearly 16% of voters said abortion is the leading issue, with about 11% saying inflation, despite it hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.

OUT-OF-STATE DONORS SPENDING MILLION TO PROTECT ABORTION IN KANSAS AHEAD OF STATEWIDE VOTE

Protesters shout as they join thousands marching around the Arizona Capitol in Phoenix after the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade on June 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

The poll results come after the Supreme Court decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade, giving the power to place limitations on abortion back to the states.

The economy ranked as the most important issue that will affect the vote in the upcoming election, receiving 20% of the overall vote. Due to the rising costs of consumer goods, 58% said that because of the recent spike in prices they are going to eat out less often.

US ECONOMY ENTERS TECHNICAL RECESSION AFTER GROWTH TUMBLES 0.9% IN THE SECOND QUARTER

The second quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) dropped to an annual rate of 0.9%, the Commerce Department said Thursday, marking the second negative decline in economic growth in the April-June quarter.

Food prices in the New York area have jumped more than 9% in the last year, the steepest they've been in the last 40 years. (John Smith/VIEWpress)

Most economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, which is what the data Thursday revealed has happened to the U.S. economy. 

While Democrats currently have the advantage over Republicans, President Biden's plummeting approval rating, soaring inflation and a rocky economy could have a negative effect on Democrats in the midterms.

MANCHIN DEAL ‘DESPERATE ATTEMPT’ BY DEMOCRATS TO DISTRACT VOTERS, SAYS MEMBER OF HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP

The poll showed that only 39% strongly or somewhat approve of the job President Biden is doing.

President Biden's approval rating hit an all-time low of 31% in July. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Former President Donald Trump has played a major role in this year's midterm election, hand-picking candidates to endorse almost weekly. The poll revealed that about 44% are less likely to vote for a candidate that is backed by the former president.

Among the voters, roughly 76% believe that the country is on the wrong track, a figure that is up 5% since June.

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The Suffolk University survey was conducted July 22-24, 2022, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.