Crime in spotlight as Californians head to the polls in key races grabbing national attention

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San Francisco district attorney likely to be recalled: Political strategist

Source Communications CEO Ken Frydman discusses the failures of progressive criminal justice policies, and argues 'people want more police.'

Voters in California, the nation’s most populous state, head to the polls on Tuesday to cast ballots in primary elections where the issue of crime is playing an outsized role in many of the key races.

"Murder up 54%. Nearly 1,500 shooting victims. A wave of property crime. There’s one candidate for mayor who can turn it around. Rick Caruso," says the narrator in a TV ad by Caruso, a pro-business billionaire developer who’s running a law-and-order type campaign for Los Angeles mayor.

Caruso, a former Republican who became a Democrat just before launching his mayoral bid, and who’s dished out tens of millions of his own money to finance his campaign, is one of the two leading contenders to steer an overwhelmingly Democratic city that hasn’t seen a Republican mayor in over two decades.

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Crime’s also front-and-center in the race for California attorney general.

Incumbent Rob Bonta – who was appointed to the position last year by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom after Xavier Becerra stepped down to become Health and Human Services secretary in President Biden’s administration – is facing three challengers from the right in a contest that seems to serve as referendum on whether the Golden State’s gone too far in implementing criminal justice reform.

And in a race that’s grabbed outsized national attention, San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin is fighting to survive a recall election three years after the former public defender won office vowing to hold police officers more accountable for wrong doing. The recall has deeply divided Democrats in the overwhelmingly blue leaning city.

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"Crime and homelessness combined are the most important issues to voters and are more intensely focused on than any issue I’ve ever seen before in politics," California-based Democratic consultant and communication strategist Bill Burton told Fox News Digital.

The polls seem to concur. Crime and homelessness, along with soaring gas prices and housing affordability, were the top four issues on the minds of California voters in a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released in April.

"People feel like politicians have fundamentally failed the people of California on these issues and it’s having a huge impact on politics here," emphasized Burton, a veteran of the 2008 Obama presidential campaign and of former President Obama’s White House who later co-founded the Democratic powerhouse super PAC Priorities USA.

As they try to retain the razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate, national Democrats face historical headwinds and an overwhelmingly negative political climate – fueled in part by skyrocketing inflation, crime, and the crisis at the nation’s southern border, and capsulized by Biden’s negative approval ratings. 

But in California, where Republicans nowadays are rarely a major factor in statewide contests, Newsom – who easily survived a recall election last autumn – is expected to cruise to reelection this year with little opposition. It’s a similar story for Sen. Alex Padilla – the then-California Secretary of State whom Newsom appointed last year to fill the seat of former Sen. Kamala Harris, who stepped down to become vice president – who’s expected to win a special election to fill the final months of Harris’ term as well as an election for a full six-year term.

With little drama at the top of the ticket, the statewide contest that’s grabbing attention is the race for attorney general. Bonta – who championed criminal justice reform as a state lawmaker – is facing challengers from two GOP candidates and as well as a former Republican contender. Amid rising crime rates, all three have attacked the incumbent’s past support to scrap cash bail and his backing of softening criminal sentencing laws 

In San Francisco, the push by progressives against tough-on-crime measures that helped fuel Boudin’s victory in 2019 have fueled arguments by those trying to oust him that the district attorney’s approach to criminal justice is making the city a more dangerous place to live. Those arguments have been augmented by viral videos of mass shoplifting in San Francisco.

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But Boudin’s supporters point to statistics that show little change in crime since the district attorney took office and say that the law-and-order approach supported by those pushing the recall in the past have led to the incarceration of a disproportionate percentage of minorities.

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Crime and homelessness are also a top issue in Los Angeles, where polls indicate Caruso is a co-front runner in a crowded primary field along with Rep. Karen Bass, a former state lawmaker who’s served a decade in Congress. If neither candidate tops 50%, they’ll both face off in November, with the winner succeeding term-limited Mayor Eric Garcetti, whose nomination by Biden to serve as U.S. ambassador to India is currently stalled.

Caruso has spent over $40 million to flood Los Angeles with ads that spotlight his pledges for quick action to stem what he calls a city in decay. 

Bass, who was on Biden’s short list for running mate during the 2020 presidential election, is backed by many in the city’s Democratic establishment. The congresswoman and her allies – including a well-financed outside group – are taking aim at Caruso’s Republican past.

"The biggest factor in the LA mayoral race is the amount of money that’s been spent," Burton noted. "Caruso’s communicating at a scale that voters here have never really seen before. Voters in most places around the country have never seen this level of spending that he’s put into the race…for someone who’s supported pro-life and pro-gun politicians his whole career, his ability to shape a narrative with his money is impressive."

Bass and her allies are also trying to link Caruso to former President Donald Trump, who remains very unpopular in Los Angeles.

"What do we know about Rick Caruso?" asks the narrator in a Bass campaign commercial. "We know he was a registered Republican for decades and not just any kind of Republican. Caruso served as a senior adviser to President Trump…On Tuesday, say no to the billionaire, Republican, tax dodging, tax return hiding, divisive, real estate developer. Both of them."

Pushing back, Caruso told Variety two weeks ago "I’m the farthest thing from Donald Trump and everybody knows that. What we’re seeing is an act of desperation, and they’re trying to throw Hail Mary’s and nobody’s buying it."

Money has not always mattered in California politics.

The most glaring example was business executive Meg Whitman, who spent a massive $144 million of her own money on her unsuccessful bid for California governor in 2010. 

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But Caruso points to Richard Riordan – the last GOP mayor of Los Angeles. Riordan pumped $6 million of his own money to win election in the wake of the 1992 riots in Los Angeles. 

"There are times when money can have a big impact and times when all the money in the world can’t have an impact. And this happens to be one of those moments where you have a candidate with deep pockets who’s an outsider at a time when people hate insiders. And I think that’s allowing for him to catch fire," Burton said. "In a different cycle he may not be as successful as he’s being in this cycle, but he’s kind of meeting the moment."