Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders battle for lead in latest New Hampshire poll

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MANCHESTER, N.H. – With less than five weeks to go until the first primary in the race for the White House, a new poll indicates an extremely close contest for the Democratic presidential nomination in New Hampshire.

The survey – by Monmouth University – shows former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont essentially tied for the lead in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary – with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts close behind.

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The poll mirrors other recent surveys in New Hampshire and Iowa – which holds the first contest in the presidential nominating calendar – in showing no clear frontrunner in the Democratic nomination battle.

According to the poll, which was released Thursday, Buttigieg stands at 20 percent support among registered Democrats and independents likely to vote in the Granite State’s Democratic primary – with Biden at 19 percent and Sanders at 18 percent. Buttigieg’s slight edge is well within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Warren stands just a few percentage points back, at 15 percent support.

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Buttigieg has seen his poll numbers in New Hampshire jump 10 points since Monmouth’s last survey in the state, which was conducted in September. Thanks to a surge the past couple of months in national polling – as well as surveys in New Hampshire and Iowa – Buttigieg has soared to top-tier status. Sanders – who’s long been part of the top tier – has also experienced a rise in his poll numbers the past two months. The populist independent senator jumped 6 points compared with Monmouth’s previous New Hampshire poll.

Warren plunged 12 points from her standing in Monmouth’s September survey in New Hampshire. The progressive senator’s seen her poll numbers in New Hampshire, Iowa and nationally drop the past couple of months. Biden’s dropped 6 points from the previous Granite State survey by Monmouth.

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Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota stands at 6 percent in the poll, up 4 points from September.

“The race remains fairly wide-open. To the extent that New Hampshire voters could take some cues from Iowa, it’s also worth keeping an eye on lower polling candidates like Klobuchar if any of the leading contenders stumble in the earlier Iowa contest,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and billionaire progressive advocate Tom Steyer are each at 4 percent, with tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 3 percent. Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado’s at 2 percent, with Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey at 1 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, and best-selling spiritual author Marianne Williamson registered at less than 1 percent.

Former New York City mayor and multi-billionaire business and media mogul Mike Bloomberg – whose name won’t appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot – was not included in the poll.  Seven percent remain undecided.

The Monmouth survey is one of the qualifying polls used by the Democratic National Committee to determine which candidates make the stage at next week's presidential primary debate in Iowa.

Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar have all qualified, with Steyer and Booker on the bubble. Both candidates have reached the individual donor criteria. But neither cracked 5 percent in the new survey. Candidates need to hit that mark in four qualifying surveys by the end of Friday to reach the polling threshold.

Steyer told Fox News on Thursday that regardless of whether he qualifes for the debate, he'll continue to "talk to as many people direclty as possible."

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted Jan. 3-7, with 403 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire questioned by live telephone operators.