Ahead of VP pick, Biden up 10 points over Trump: poll

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As Joe Biden gets ready to announce his running mate, a new national survey indicates that the former vice president holds a 10-percentage point lead over President Trump among registered voters.

According to a Monmouth University poll released on Tuesday, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee tops the Republican incumbent in the White House 51%-41%. The survey indicates 4% of voters questioned are backing third party candidates, with 4% undecided.

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Biden’s 10-point lead over the president is down from a 13-point advantage in Monmouth University’s previous poll, which was conducted in late June. The release of the new poll comes a day after a Georgetown University Battleground national survey suggested the former vice president topping Trump by 13 points.

An average of all the latest national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics indicates Biden ahead of Trump by 7.2 points. That's down from a 10-point advantage the presumptive Democratic nominee enjoyed in late June in the Real Clear Politics average.

"Trump has stopped his slide in the poll, but Biden maintains a lead among all registered voters nationally," Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray highlighted.

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Biden holds smaller single-digit advantages over Trump in the latest polling in many of the key general election battleground states that will decide the White House race. Hillary Clinton also led Trump in most national and key battleground state polling at this point in the 2016 cycle. The Democratic nominee ended up winning the national popular vote by two points – but Trump edged Clinton in many of the crucial swing states, giving him an electoral college victory to win the White House.

The president’s favorable/unfavorable rating stands at 40%-54% in the Monmouth poll, a slight improvement from late June. Biden’s favorable/unfavorable rating stands at 42%-47%, a slight decline from the previous Monmouth survey.

Just over 6 in 10 voters questioned in the survey said they’re very or somewhat confident that the general election will be conducted fairly and accurately, with 36% saying they’re not confident. Nearly three-quarters said they’re concerned about potential election meddling. A sizeable number of Democrats said they were worried about meddling from a foreign power, with 40% pointing fingers at Russia. They’re also concerned about meddling by the president and the GOP. A significant amount of Republicans worry about meddling from the Democratic Party.

The president has repeatedly claimed for months that the expansion of voting by mail will lead to a “rigged” election and “voter fraud.”

Fifty-eight percent of voters said it’s a good idea to make it easier to cast ballots by mail – amid health concerns over in-person voting amid the coronavirus pandemic. Thirty-seven percent said it’s a bad idea. There’s a wide partisan divide, with 90% of Democrats and 60% of independents but just 20% of Republicans in favor of making voting by mail easier.

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The Monmouth University Poll was conducted August 6-10, with live telephone operators questioning 785 registered voters nationwide. The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.