6 House races tilt in Dems' favor as GOP fights to keep its razor-thin majority

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CNN data guru declares Trump will win White House if he outperforms current polling by one point

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so close that if Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will win the White House.

Political headwinds have recently shifted in eight close House races around the country. With less than two months until Election Day, Democrats continue to ride a wave of enthusiasm for their new presidential nominee.

Six races have shifted in Democrats’ favor, while just two are looking better for Republicans, according to a nonpartisan analysis by the Cook Political Report.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has spent the summer crisscrossing the country to campaign for fellow GOP lawmakers as he seeks to hold onto his razor-thin, four-seat majority in the House.

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Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are battling for control of the House. (Getty Images)

Two of the races that inched toward the left are in districts President Biden won in 2020 but are held by GOP representatives Don Bacon, R-Neb., and Michelle Steele, R-Calif. Both their ratings switched from "lean Republican" to "toss up."

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, who flipped her seat from red to blue in 2020, saw her race move from "likely" victory for Republicans to only leaning in their favor.

Three Democratic seats — those held by representatives Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, and Henry Cuellar, D-Texas — have also become safer for the left.

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Moskowitz and Cuellar’s race predictions shifted to solidly and "likely" blue, respectively, while Kaptur’s seat is now leaning Democratic after being classified a "toss-up."

Democrats could be on track to lose a seat in the House, however, with the race for Rep. Mary Peltola’s seat becoming a "toss-up" in Alaska, a state former President Trump won in 2020.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur's re-election race is now projected more favorably for Democrats than before. (Bill Clark)

Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, which Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., is vacating to run in the nearby 4th Congressional District, is now "likely" to be held by Republicans after her departure.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the House Democrats’ campaign arm, took a victory lap over Cook’s latest updates Friday. 

"House Democrats continue to build momentum and grassroots enthusiasm across the country, while House GOP incumbents and candidates continue to fall flat on their faces," DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement to the press touting the update.

Republicans appeared to be on track to possibly win both the White House and Congress before Biden’s shocking decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race in late July.

Democrats have since been riding a wave of enthusiasm for their new candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, despite a lack of expansive policy platforms and few unscripted media appearances.

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At least one House Republican who spoke with Fox News Digital this week was bullish about the GOP's chances of victory, however.

"If these predictive sites are to be believed, maybe Donald Trump's got a 42% chance to be president. We've got a, you know, 60-some percent chance to take the Senate and a 55% chance to keep the House. So, that's a better hand of cards than we're holding today," the GOP lawmaker said. 

"I would say this. If Donald Trump gets elected, he will likely usher in a Republican House and Senate along with him."

One House Republican predicted Republicans would keep the House and win the Senate if Donald Trump won the presidency. (Getty Images)

Last month, House GOP leaders were expressing concerns about being out-raised by Democrats.

Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., head of the House GOP campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), confirmed he sounded alarm bells in comments to Fox Business in August.

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"That's true, and we've seen the fundraising on the Democrat side just go through the roof. And so I've warned my candidates and my colleagues in the Congress that we've got to step up and continue doing the things we need to do to win," Hudson said at the time.

He said the response from House Republicans has been "great," adding, "Everyone stepped up. We had a number of people pledge more money to the committee. … I think folks are ready for the fight."

Fox Business' Grady Trimble and Fox News' Tyler Olson contributed to this report