All strategy goes out the window when you step foot on that debate stage: Jim Messina
Former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina and GOP Communications consultant Brett O’Donnell preview the highly anticipated presidential debate on ‘Fox News Sunday.’
How important is Tuesday night’s debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris? Extremely important: based on the evening’s face-off in Philadelphia, voters could well decide who becomes the next president of the United States.
Why such drama? Because Vice President Kamala Harris adopted, weeks ago, a ridiculous campaign strategy of hiding from voters as much as possible and committing to few policies; she has refused to do solo interviews or press conferences and until Monday had neglected to post any policy positions on her campaign’s website. Unlike every other candidate in recent history, she did not endure a grueling primary contest to win her slot on the ballot. She was, instead, anointed by Democratic Party power brokers.
As a result, 28% of voters in a recent New York Times/Siena poll said they "still need to learn more about Kamala Harris," while only 9% said they needed more information about Donald Trump.
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That puts tremendous pressure on Harris to define herself in a winning way before Tuesday night’s audience. The first face-to-face between former Sen. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 2016 drew 84 million viewers; Tuesday’s debate could attract even more.
Harris and her team are feeling the pressure. They have engaged in considerable bickering about the rules of the debate, hosted by ABC News, especially focusing on whether each candidate’s microphone will be muted while their opponent is talking. Harris wanted mics left open, most likely so that she could reprise the moment during the vice presidential debate in 2020 when she reprimanded incumbent Vice President Mike Pence for talking over her.
But all that whining reveals that Harris is terrified that policy will be the focal point on Tuesday night; she wants voters to focus on optics. We are not surprised; Harris has flip-flopped on nearly every progressive issue central to her 2019 primary campaign – gun confiscation, Medicare for All, EV mandates, building a border wall, decriminalizing illegal immigration, and banning fracking. She has not articulated these reversals; that has been left to "anonymous" campaign staffers. As we saw in her rare interview with CNN’s Dana Bash, she is unable to explain why her views have shifted; asked by Bash whether voters can trust her, she claims her values have not changed, even as her policies have.
Unfortunately for Harris, over the weekend Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders said the quiet part out loud when he told an interviewer that he didn’t think her progressive positions have changed, but that Harris is simply saying what she needs to win the election. Oops.
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The New York Times has reported that some 18% of the electorate is up for grabs – perhaps leaning one way or the other but not yet committed. That seems high, especially given that in their most recent poll only 5% of voters declared themselves undecided; whatever the number is, though, it probably far exceeds the 44,000 votes in Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona that determined the outcome of the 2020 election.
With most polls showing the race a dead heat, including in the vital swing states, much is at stake.
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Kamala Harris has, arguably, the heavier lift at Tuesday’s debate. She could win the debate, not by goading Trump, but by convincing voters she understands how the economy works, why people are unhappy with open borders, how she will stem the crime surge and get our cities back on track.
A majority of Americans think they were better off during Trump’s presidency than during the recent Biden-Harris tenure; why will that change? After all, both President Joe Biden and Harris have, over the past three-plus years, earned epically low approval ratings and driven both consumer and business sentiment way below historical norms.
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Harris does not appear to have a deep well of core beliefs to guide her. She is no Ronald Reagan, who never wavered on prioritizing peace through strength or on his disdain for an encroaching federal government. Reagan crushed Democrat incumbent Jimmy Carter in their 1980 debate largely because he had the courage of his convictions and it showed.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, needs to appeal to voters who like his policies but don’t like his personality. In a recent survey comparing views of Trump and Biden, Pew research found voters more likely to agree with Trump on issues, but to prefer Biden’s personal behavior. For instance, 64% of all voters said that Trump was "mean-spirited", compared to 31% who described Biden in that way.
Unlike Harris, Trump has a known policy agenda and is favored on several critical issues including managing the economy and immigration. He needs to stick to those issues, touting facts confirming, for instance, the real income and employment gains made by all demographic groups under his presidency. And he needs to blast Biden and Harris for igniting inflation through reckless government spending.
Most important, the former president should smile. Yes – smile. Trump has to compete against Harris’ "joy" by looking cheerful. The former president has been so demonized by the press that people would be shocked to see him as a likeable and friendly fellow. There’s a reason that bankers and investors stuck with Trump during his many ups and downs and that he has such a loyal following. He would do well to display his more positive side, as he did to rave reviews during the GOP convention. In his first 2020 debate against Joe Biden, Trump was truculent and glowering; it was a disaster.
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The Times/Siena poll shows Trump leading Harris by one point, which is bad news for Democrats. In September 2020, the same poll showed Joe Biden ahead of Trump by 8 points. Also worrisome for Harris, who is promising a "new way forward": over 60% of respondents agree that "the next president should represent a major change from Joe Biden."
A majority of Americans think Donald Trump offers that "major change," not Kamala Harris. She may be running away from Joe Biden, but she can’t run far.
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