Four ways Trump can get to a 96% chance of winning

The 2016 election hinged on 40,000 votes in key Midwest states. This time the margin of victory, or defeat, may be even more dramatic: 10,000 to 20,000 Pennsylvanians – or the student section at a Penn State football game.  

According to election guru Nate Silver, if former President Donald Trump wins the Keystone State, his chances of winning the White House are 96%. We know Trump’s strengths with men – and his weaknesses with women. Thus, the entire race could hinge on his ability to persuade several thousand women in Pennsylvania to turn his way. 

Easier said than done, as this election poses new challenges. For the first time, abortion has surpassed the economy as the No. 1 issue for female voters under 45 years of age. For women overall, abortion is now neck-and-neck with the economy as the preeminent issue.  

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With this backdrop, some perspective and prudence are needed:  

Former President Donald Trump gives a thumbs up in the spin room following the debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. If he wants to get back into the White House, winning Pennsylvania makes it very likely. (Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

First, Trump should be given leeway by the right in his approach to abortion. For the past 50 years, Republicans have had the benefit of a single unifying message: overturn Roe vs Wade.  

Now, the debate has changed, and even the most pro-life states and governors vary on their state-specific policies. And the political reality is that most Americans are somewhere in the middle on this difficult issue, like in Pennsylvania, where abortion is legal up to 24 weeks.  

Trump delivered on his promise to appoint judges who would overturn Roe and send the issue back to the states. It’s not the perfect solution, but it’s a solution for the hardest question in American political life. The right should give Trump the latitude to explain these positions and assure Pennsylvanians that the issue is now in their hands.  

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Second, remind parents of what is at stake. Suburban moms may have little regard for Trump’s style, personality and rough-and-ready approach to policy and people, but, when he was president, he fought to keep kids in the classroom during COVID-19 and nonsense out. Democrats, and their teachers union allies, have done the opposite.  

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Despite what many view as his personality defects, Trump ran a good country and was on the side of parents and students. The question is not who we would rather have as a classroom teacher — Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris — but who’s more likely to wield government to interfere with our children, to try to shape them and their views in the things we do not believe or are none of their business. The answer, to us, seems obvious. 

Third, expose Harris’s hypocrisy on fracking — a key industry for Pennsylvanians. Admittedly, it’s hard to know what Harris is running for – but it’s clear what she’s running from: her record.  

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She previously said she would ban fracking. She said she would abolish the filibuster to pass the Green New Deal. She passed the deciding vote for the Inflation Reduction Act — arguably the largest "green" pork bill ever passed. On their first day in office, the Biden-Harris administration canceled the Keystone XL Pipeline, and they’ve blocked oil and gas leases on large swaths of federal lands.  

Trump delivered on his promise to appoint judges who would overturn Roe and send the issue back to the states. It’s not the perfect solution, but it’s a solution for the hardest question in American political life. The right should give Trump the latitude to explain these positions and assure Pennsylvanians that the issue is now in their hands.  

This is an administration beholden to radical environmentalists; she pays lip service to fracking because she knows the political stakes. Or as Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders said recently, she’s "doing what she thinks is right in order to win the election." 

Finally, let us not forget Butler, Pennsylvania, ever. In that field north of Pittsburgh, Trump made his strongest case to date. As he rose defiantly in the face of death, he demonstrated his best quality: he’s a fighter for his country. Whether it’s the Russia collusion hoax, the bogus lawfare, or a near assassination, he doesn’t back down. That’s a quality that Pennsylvanians respect, and it could make the difference.  

Chris Beach is a former speechwriter to the U.S. Secretary of Defense.

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