Fox News Poll: Johnson holds edge over Barnes in Wisconsin Senate race

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President Biden won Wisconsin by less than one percentage point in 2020, and the state remains closely divided. Both Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson are in tough fights to keep their jobs, according to a new Fox News survey of Wisconsin voters. 

In the Senate race, Democrat Mandela Barnes trails Johnson by three percentage points (45%-48%). That’s mostly unchanged from last month, while it was Barnes who was ahead by four points in August. 

Wisconsin voters on their preference in the 2022 Senate race. (Fox News)

There are enough undecided/third-party voters to shift the race either way, and Johnson’s edge is within the poll’s margin of error. 

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Among the subgroup of only those who have already voted or say they’re certain to vote (a 10 out of 10), it’s a two-point race: Barnes 46% vs. Johnson 48%.

Poll of Wisconsin voters who have already voted or are certain to vote on their Senate preference. (Fox News)

Equal numbers of Democrats back Barnes (93%) as Republicans back Johnson (93%).  Independents favor Barnes by 7 points. Johnson’s advantage in the vote preference comes from the fact that more Wisconsin voters self-identify as Republicans than Democrats. 

Johnson is favored among men, voters without a college degree, White evangelical Christians, and rural voters. Barnes is the pick among women, voters ages 65+ and those under 35, voters with a college degree, and urban voters. Suburban voters divide sharply. 

Roughly the same number of Johnson’s (61%) and Barnes’ supporters (58%) back their candidate "enthusiastically," but by a 7-point margin more of those favoring Barnes say their support is about disliking Johnson. 

Poll of Wisconsin voter enthusiasm and degree of support. (Fox News)

Meanwhile, Johnson has been successful at portraying Barnes as extreme -- 36% of independents feel that way, up from 19% in August. Among Republicans, 84% are concerned Barnes is too extreme, up from 56%. 

For Johnson, 41% of independents and 87% of Democrats worry his views are too extreme.

Overall, the same number of voters, 44%, are concerned Barnes and Johnson are too out there.

Inflation (30%) and abortion (24%) are the top two issues to Wisconsinites when deciding their Senate vote. Those prioritizing inflation pick Johnson (by +64 points), while abortion voters back Barnes (+54).

"As expected, Wisconsin is extremely competitive," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Johnson’s edge is driven by two facts. First, issues where the public favors the GOP are prevalent. Second, he’s managed to brand Barnes as too liberal. But it’s still a tight race."

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Forty-nine percent of Badger State voters approve of the job Evers is doing as governor. Yet only 90% of those who approve support his re-election. 

That leads to a close governor’s contest, with 46% favoring Evers, while 47% go for Republican challenger Tim Michels. Last month, it was 47% apiece. 

Poll of Wisconsin voters on their gubernatorial preference. (Fox News)

It’s also a 1-point race among those who say they’re certain to vote/already voted: 47% Evers vs. 48% Michels. 

Poll of Wisconsin voters who have already voted or are certain to vote on their gubernatorial preference. (Fox News)

There’s little split-ticket voting: 3% of those backing Johnson in the Senate race cross party lines to support Evers in the gubernatorial race, and 2% of those supporting Barnes favor Michels.

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"With partisans mostly consolidated behind their candidates, these races come down to turnout," says Anderson. "If Democrats prevail, it will likely be due to higher rates of turnout among college-educated women and younger voters." 

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Conducted October 26-30, 2022, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), these Fox News surveys include interviews with 1,000 Wisconsin registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file and who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.  

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.