Polling guru: Most Americans ‘outright lying’ about polarizing political opinions
Populace CEO Todd Rose explains the Social Pressure Index, which found a staggering 61% of Americans admitted to self-silencing their true beliefs.
A shocking new study shows a dramatic difference between what Americans publicly claim they believe on key issues compared to how they really feel when discussing polarizing political topics in private.
Populace, a Massachusetts-based think tank focused on understanding people's private views and values rather than what they'll say publicly, recently unveiled its first Social Pressure Index. The findings indicate that Americans don’t trust the government or the media and are hesitant to publicly admit their true feelings on a variety of key issues. This could be critical with the presidential election looming, as many Americans feel pressure to support a specific candidate or issues publicly but wouldn’t necessarily vote that way in private.
"I think it's going to be really fascinating to see what happens on election night. I will also say I think people are going to be surprised not just about presidential elections, but about some of the ballot initiatives and things like that are going to play out very different than public opinion might suggest," Populace CEO Todd Rose told Fox News Digital.
Many Americans feel pressure to support a specific candidate or issue publicly, but wouldn’t necessarily vote that way in private, according to Populace CEO Todd Rose. (Photographer: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Rose said polling "isn’t bad," but it’s flawed because Americans aren’t honest about their personal views.
"Polling assumes you're telling the truth, and we're not," Rose said, noting that he began private opinion research after former President Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton stunned pollsters.
A staggering 61% of Americans admitted to self-silencing their true beliefs, and 58% of Americans believe most people cannot share their honest opinions about sensitive topics even if they believe they are correct, according to the study.
Rose said the Social Pressure Index was the largest private opinion study ever conducted, and it both acknowledges societal pressures to have the "right" opinion and also where that pressure impacts what Americans are willing to say out loud. He said the study spanned 64 of the most controversial issues in American society and included a massive sample of over 19,000 respondents and upwards of two dozen demographic groups.
"Across these 64 issues, every single demographic group in the country, every one of them, is outright lying about multiple issues to the point where what they say publicly is not what they believe privately, as a group," Rose said.
Rose called it "frightening" that some of the public dishonesty can lead to policy implications.
For example, he noted that the study found that for a while, the "Defund the Police" appeared to be supported by the majority of Democrats, but only 3% of Democrats supported it in private.
"I don't think we would have gone down the road of some of the stuff in Seattle and other things had we known it was just 3%. And we're seeing similar things like that right now. For example, Americans writ large publicly say they think unions are good for the economy. In private they don't believe it," Rose said.
Former President Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton stunned many pollsters. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
"The good news is this -- when you get past what we're saying publicly, to what we privately believe. I was shocked at the extent of the common ground we have as Americans," Rose continued. "On two thirds of those issues, almost every single demographic in the country agrees -- is on the same side of it."
Rose found it "wild" that so many Americans agreed on significant issues, at least privately, when the nation feels so divided.
"What I'm most excited about is not just that we agree, but it's what we agree on. There is an incredible private preference for meritocracy in America, whether we're talking about college admissions, hiring decisions, promotion decisions, who gets to be in the C-suite, to the way we treat different groups," Rose said.
"Three fourths of Americans across all demographics prefer to live in a meritocracy than the things we've been doing recently," he continued. "And I think that's really good news for the future of the country."
However, it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows as many respondents are deeply concerned about the economy.
"One of the things that we found that cut across a bunch of different issues was deep-seeded pessimism about the economy and the direction of the country," Rose said.
The study found that Democrats are the most likely to privately suggest the economy is flourishing.
"Consistently, upwards of three out of four Americans say the economy is not good. And we asked a lot of different ways. We asked about their personal finances as they are now. We asked about the state of the economy as it is now. We asked it about whether the economy was better now or worse now than it was five years ago. We asked whether their personal finances were better or worse. We asked in a bunch of ways," Rise said.
"Without fail, what you see is that most people recognize in private that the economy's not doing very well. Not surprisingly, the only group that privately will say something different are registered Democrats," he continued. "They pretty consistently are like, ‘I think the economy's great.’"
The Social Pressure Index found "deep seeded pessimism about the economy and the direction of the country," Populace CEO Todd Rose said. (Photographer: Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Rose said that many of the Democrats who insist the economy is thriving under the Biden-Harris administration admit their personal finances are "not so good."
"When we asked about the country headed in the wrong direction, you're getting an overwhelming super majority of Americans, across all demographics, acknowledging that things aren't good for the country," Rose said.
The other thing that surprised Rose is how Americans feel about institutions overall.
"So, we all know when it comes to the government, that even in public opinion there's lot there's a lot of distrust of the government, even publicly. We asked the statement about whether you trusted the government to tell you the truth. And that's a kind of low bar, right? Not like, to do everything right, just to tell me the truth. In private, only 4% of Americans trust the government to tell them the truth," Rose said.
"What's really funny about that is, Democrats in public have the highest rate of saying they trust the government, 36%. In private, it's only 5%. Even they don't trust the government to tell the truth," Rose continued. "When you extend that to the media, we see something similar. Only 7% of the public privately trusts the media to tell the truth."
The Social Pressure Index can be seen here.
As to how the data was determined, the abstract for the study explains: "The primary methodology of the study was a list experiment (also known as the item count technique), a survey technique designed to maximize respondents’ privacy. Rather than directly asking respondents their opinion on a series of sensitive topics, list experiments conceal respondents’ answers as part of the methodological design by aggregating responses to sensitive items with other items, minimizing the biases introduced by social desirability and nonresponse."
"If tolerance of dissenting views and the courage to participate in the open, free exchange of ideas are markers of a healthy democracy, then America’s epidemic of self-silencing should be seen as a five-alarm fire engulfing the key pillars of representative governance. Most Americans are hesitant to share their honest opinions, not because they're afraid of disagreement, but because they're afraid of judgment," Rose said in a statement prior to his Fox News Digital interview.
"When nearly two in three Americans admit that they don’t feel comfortable sharing their opinions, that collective silence can create a dangerous illusion of a country more fractured and polarized than it truly is," Rose added. "The truth is we are not as divided as we seem. We're increasingly just too afraid to speak up."
According to Populace, "The survey was conducted from May 16, 2024, to June 24, 2024, and was fielded by YouGov."
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