CNN data guru warns Trump may beat Harris in key metrics
CNN data reporter Harry Enten revealed that former President Donald Trump is expected to garner a "historic" number of Black and Hispanic voters in November.
CNN data reporter Harry Enten warned on Sunday that former President Trump is predicted to win a "historic" number of Black and Hispanic voters in the November election.
During an appearance on "Inside Politics," Enten revealed the potentially bad news for Democrats and also noted that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in party identification and registration for the first time in almost 40 years.
"At this particular hour, if you believe the polling, Donald Trump’s going to put up the best performance with Black voters since Richard Nixon in the 1960s," Enten said.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris holds 78% percent of the Black vote. Hillary Clinton won the voting block with 92% in 2016, and President Biden won approximately 90% in 2020.
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Former President Trump speaks to supporters during a campaign event at Saginaw Valley State University on Oct. 3, 2024, in Michigan. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Enten also told a CNN panel on Sunday that Trump is expected to put up the "best performance" for a Republican when it comes to Hispanic voters since former President George W. Bush in 2004.
"The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now," he said. "The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by 8. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is 3. Republicans right now, Manu, are doing even better than the average when they win," Enten added.
He noted that the party registration and party ID data "points in a good direction" for Trump.
However, Enten questioned whether Trump’s performance among minority groups could be erased by Harris’ support among college-educated White voters.
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CNN data reporter Harry Enten predicted that Trump may win a historic number of Black and Hispanic voters. (CNN/Screenshot)
"The question ultimately is—is that enough to offset the strength that Kamala Harris has with White voters with a college degree? At this particular moment, she has the strongest margin with them than any Democrat going back since recorded history with polling, I guess since 1948, 1952, wherever you want to put it," he said.
Enten calculated that Harris is winning the demographic by 18 points.
An NBC News survey of registered voters released on Sunday found that voters are virtually evenly split between the two candidates.
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When the poll, conducted Oct. 4-8, asked respondents who they would choose, Trump and Harris each earned 48% in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup.
When third-party figures were included in the mix, the overall result was 47% support for Trump versus 46% for Harris.
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