'Your World' on Russia-Ukraine war and how to beat Putin

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Putin only responds to 'power and force,' not angry emails from the UN: Rudik

Ukrainian parliament member Kira Rudik tells 'Your World' a no-fly zone would give them a chance to win the war with Russia.

This is a rush transcript from "Your World," March 7, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

NEIL CAVUTO, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: It is now infecting the markets worldwide, the Dow Jones industrial skidding more than 800 points today, because energy costs are out of control today.

What is being started with what's happening in Ukraine is now reverberating on energy prices that are now the highest they have been in about 13 years, all the major averages plummeting today, the Nasdaq in and out a bear market territory, a 20 percent decline from highs reached little more than a few weeks ago.

But what was dominating those markets was the fact that those oil prices could go still higher, $4 gas the average now, $5 gas not too far around the corner, especially when you're talking more than $119 for crude oil, which has effectively doubled this young year, and about half of that is since the invasion of Ukraine.

What to make of the pain at the pump and a lot more pain to come.

Welcome, everybody. I'm Neil Cavuto, and this is your well, selling, world. We have markets the world over now into what they call bear market territory, falling 20 percent or more in Germany and in France and in England, and now an index that follows Europe that really is dependent on all that energy it gets from Russia that it soon might not be getting at all.

We're going to look at what the White House is planning to do about this and tapping some unusual sources to make up for Vladimir Putin's oil. Then there's the issue of Vladimir Putin and who he sells that oil to. Do not think that he hasn't lined up customers. I will give you a hint. One of them is China. You won't believe the other one is.

We are on top of all of these fast-moving developments.

Kira Rudik is with us, the Ukrainian member of Parliament, also Garry Kasparov with us as well, the grand master who says this is a grand strategy that appears to be working perfectly to Vladimir Putin's wishes. We have also got FOX team coverage with Benjamin Hall in Kyiv with the latest and Jennifer Griffin on how this is sorting out at the Pentagon.

We begin with Benjamin -- Benjamin.

BENJAMIN HALL, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Hi, Neil.

Well, just to update you on what's been happening in Kyiv over the last few hours, there has been heavy shelling on the outskirts, in an apparent attempt really now on Putin's forces to try and soften up the city, through three sides -- on three sides of where we are, and for at least three hours, heavy bombardment, flashes lighting up the sky.

Look, the fact is, is that, on the one hand, Putin has been talking over the last couple of days about cease-fires to allow civilians out. He's been talking about humanitarian corridors, and on the other he has just escalated and increased his attacks on the human population here, the civilians here.

It was very interesting, because, for example, yesterday, he said that there would be a humanitarian corridor out to Mariupol. The Red Cross now say that had been mined. Buses had tried to come in and out. They were shelled. Today, they suggested other humanitarian corridors, but they said everyone would have to go to Russia or Belarus, all nonstarters.

And there was a third round of negotiations today between Ukraine and Russia in Belarus, which again led nowhere really. But, as I said, the civilian death toll continues to rise, the U.N. saying 1,200 people are now killed. Expect that number to be far higher, 27 children among them.

And when we talk about Putin shelling and attacking civilian centers, he is also besieging them, cutting them off. The city of Mariupol, for example, has been without water now for six days, reports of people having to drink water from puddles. It is an absolutely dire situation, one which is only going to get worse. And now, in the city of Kyiv, it appears that they are moving in.

President Zelenskyy talked about this earlier. He said that the West, NATO, the U.S. has to act now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): The world should react decisively and, most important, fast. If Western politicians are scared, we are saying let us do it. Give us, the Ukrainian, warplanes and fighter jets which we can use to protect ourselves, our children.

Give Ukraine anti-missile defense to guarantee that no one will blast nuclear power plant in Ukraine and all of Europe won't be destroyed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HALL: But, as I said, I think the crown jewel for Vladimir Putin, the thing that he tried to get early on in this invasion is Kyiv. He is moving ever closer to it now.

And because of the initial setbacks that he faced and the success of Ukrainian forces in holding back some of his armored vehicles, what they have started to do is hit with longer-range weapons, a lot less accurate. And that's why we're seeing the death toll rise across this country, and, again, the humanitarian costs also rising; 1.75 million people have now fled this country in the last 12 days, a lot more internally displaced.

So that number will get a lot higher in the coming days -- Neil.

CAVUTO: Benjamin Hall, thank you very, very much.

Well, you remember all those Russian troops that were on the border with Ukraine? Apparently, they're all in Ukraine right now. I think that was the gist of what the Pentagon was saying.

Who knows better than Jennifer Griffin at the Pentagon?

Jennifer.

JENNIFER GRIFFIN, FOX NEWS NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Neil, the biggest takeaway from the Pentagon briefing is that the Russian forces really did not make any appreciable progress this weekend, especially when it comes to Putin's goal of taking the capital.

We just learned that 40-mile convoy is in fact mostly a resupply convoy of fuel trucks and other supplies, not tanks. It remains stuck. But this also raises the question as to where the columns of tanks that were supposed to cross from Belarus and make a dash to surround the capital went.

Russia is taking far more casualties than expected.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: They are having morale problems. They are having supply problems. They are having fuel problems. They're having food problems. They are having -- they are meeting a very stiff and determined Ukrainian resistance.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFIN: Today, John Kirby confirmed reports that the Russians are also recruiting foreign fighters to help them in Ukraine, Syrian fighters experienced in urban warfare.

A senior U.S. defense officials said they are on a recruiting mission. Not clear how many and can't speak to the quality of recruits, but shows the Russians have taken losses and need more help. Putin has now committed, as you mentioned, nearly 100 percent of his pre-staged combat power inside Ukraine, firing an additional 25 missiles in the past 24 hours, mostly short- and medium-range, from mobile positions inside Ukraine.

U.S. officials say there is no consideration being given to setting up a no-fly zone, which would put the U.S. at war with Russia. U.S. officials confirmed this weekend that the administration is looking at ways to backfill and provide F-16s to Poland, so that the Poles can fulfill request from President Zelenskyy for dozens of MiG-29 fighter jets, which Ukrainian pilots know how to fly.

But a senior U.S. defense official says no decision has been made yet, adding that President Zelenskyy still has most of his fixed-wing aircraft intact, meaning most of Ukraine's air force and air defenses have not yet been destroyed by Russia -- Neil.

CAVUTO: Jennifer, there had been some confusion as well about these Russian soldiers that are in Ukraine now, that they're all exclusively Russian soldiers, or that some might be conscripts. Do we know?

GRIFFIN: Well, I think we know that many of those Russian troops are conscripts. They're young conscripts who have been interviewed in some cases after being captured.

And they have said that they didn't know why they were coming to Ukraine. They we're told that Nazis and taken over the government. And so there's been a bit of dismay among those younger conscripts. They have called home to their parents. Some of those telephone conversations have been intercepted.

And that's why the Pentagon was saying that they have some indications that morale is flagging. And the Russians themselves admit they have taken serious losses. Now, that doesn't mean that they aren't also inflicting huge damage and losses. And now, as Benjamin reported, they are using that artillery and long-range fire that is not accurate.

And they're firing into city centers, where there are civilians cowering for their lives, and they're killing lots and lots of civilians. So it's going to get more and more violent. And that is why President Zelenskyy is asking for more and more help.

CAVUTO: All right, Jennifer Griffin, thank you very, very much.

Again, we were touching on this at the outset here, Benjamin Netanyahu in Ukraine, that there were a third day of peace talks today, something to hammer out this humanitarian confusion that had the Ukrainians saying that the Russians were targeting those on those humanitarian paths out of the country, and even taking some out of the country toward Belarus or Russia.

The confusion continues, because the Russians have promised, in this wave of talks, to make sure they follow up on that humanitarian. They're going to resume talks tomorrow.

Let's join Kira Rudik right now, who is a key member of Parliament, the Ukrainian Parliament. Kind enough to join us now.

Do we know or do you think, Kira, that the Russians will honor this agreement to provide a humanitarian exit for Ukrainians wanting to leave the country and aid so that it can come in to the country?

KIRA RUDIK, UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT MEMBER: I'm absolutely sure that they will not.

Let's look at the facts right now and what's happened. So, first of all, we have an experience of the eight-year war with Russia. And we know that the thing that Putin loves the most is for his army to destroy the humanitarian convoys.

This is what had been done in Ukraine for the last eight years. And this is what he is doing now. There is no confusion or misunderstanding. He gives his word that there will be a free pass, a green pass for a peaceful convoy, and, right after the convoy is trying to get out, they start shooting at women and children.

And if for the first time you can say, oh, it was a mistake, for the second time when it happened, we know it is intentional.

Let's look at the peaceful negotiation that happened over the last week. After the first round of peaceful negotiations, within the first hour, the TV tower in Kyiv was bombarded, and the city of Kharkiv was half-taken to the grounds with air force of Russia. Or after the second round of the peaceful negotiation, the largest European nuclear plant was attacked, which right now is in Zaporizhzhia. And Mariupol was taken to the ground.

Right now, when we expecting the third round of negotiation, when they finished, I'm expecting a very hard night for Kyiv, because we know the worst word that could come out of Putin's mouth is the word peace, because, for us, it means that he will be cruel, vicious, and then Kyiv city and other cities will be attacked by Russian missiles as hard as never before.

We have seen this. These are the facts. So why does the world think that it's just some mistake or that one day Putin will wake up and say, oh, I was wrong?

This wouldn't happen. He only responds well to one particular thing, to power or -- and force, only to that. The rest, he doesn't really care. He doesn't care about condemnation of the leaders of the world. He doesn't really care about the angry e-mails from the United Nations. He doesn't really take this into consideration.

He was very adamant about his plans, that he will take over Ukraine, then Poland, then Latvia, and Lithuania. This is what his plans are. And this is why it's Ukrainian nation that is fighting him so bravely and so successfully. But we only can fight him on the land. This is why we need the support from the air, because our cities are continuously being bombarded from the air.

And there is nothing that we can do to stop this. That's why we are pleading for a no-fly zone from our NATO allies, from everybody who can provide us with jets, with air force protection, anything, so we could protect us and give us a chance to win this war with Putin, give us a chance to throw him back to where he came from.

CAVUTO: You won't probably have the no-fly zone that you want. And I understand that.

But you will have something with help from Poland, where they would have jets flying over your country. How do you feel about that?

RUDIK: So, the question would be -- the only thing that we are asking right now is the question of time, because, every single day, Putin is destroying one more airport that we will be able to fly these jets from.

And this is why we need them fast. And from what I heard from my partners in the United States and the United Kingdom and Poland, this may not happen that fast. And every single day when we are waiting, there are Ukrainians who are dying. We are buying this time with our blood, basically.

And this is -- this is why I'm begging all the partners to speed the processes up. We are -- we will be happy to have every kind of support that we can get, the jets, the air force protection, whatever there will be. We can call it different, a no-fly zone, Iron Dome, whatever.

We just need to strengthen ourselves with the -- from the air, because I have my rifle. I can fight -- fight Russian soldiers, but there is nothing that I can do with the missile that is going to my house from the air. And this is what the tragedy is right now.

We are standing up for 12 days. Nobody in the world thought that we would stand more -- for more than two days. We are showing him such a good fight. We are not giving up any of our major cities. And the only thing that we need to win this war is the support and protection from the air.

And we are asking begging everybody, because, even with all money of the world, we will not be able to build one in a couple of days. And we only have like so many days left also while we will be standing.

CAVUTO: Kira Rudik, thank you very much, a Ukrainian member of Parliament.

RUDIK: Thank you.

CAVUTO: What Kira was saying is echoed by Garry Kasparov, the former Russian chess grand master, who has gone on to be a big advocate for freedom, Renew Democracy Initiative chairman. He has been warning before any of this came to fruition that Vladimir Putin's goals go well, well, well beyond Ukraine.

Garry, very good to see you.

You're convinced that, whatever happens in Ukraine, especially if Vladimir Putin takes over, he's not done?

GARRY KASPAROV, CHAIRMAN, THE HUMAN RIGHTS FOUNDATION: No, he's done if he loses the war, because he will not be able to stay in power. It's -- that's what happened with everything indicated in the past.

If the war is won, with a military defeat, geopolitical defeat, and if it's combined with the blockade, financial, economic, technological, it will lead to revolt in Russia, because Putin won't have money to pay his militant machine, for his police and his propaganda.

That's why defeating Putin in Ukraine is the only way to save the world from the horrors to follow. And that's why I will always say it's not the game of chess. You can either win or lose. You can not have a tie. And it seems to me that this is not yet the position of United States and NATO.

So, we are still hearing Secretary Blinken, for instance, saying, oh, it's not about regime change. It is about regime change, because, as long as Putin stays in Kremlin, there will be no peace. You cannot compromise with cancer. You can only cut it out.

CAVUTO: So, Garry, when you talk to friends in Russia, what do they know about this?

The -- I know they have very little access to social media. I get that. But they wait on long lines around banks, are limited how much cash they can take out of banks. They're certainly feeling the economic hit from this. So how much do they know? How much support does -- do they give Vladimir Putin?

KASPAROV: It's very unfortunate, but I don't have friends left in Russia, because people who marched with me on the Russian streets eight years ago peacefully protesting against Putin's dictatorship, they're either in exile, like myself, in jail, like Alexei Navalny, or killed like Boris Nemtsov.

So we can get some information out of the situation on the ground in Russia. But it's very dire, because Putin closed almost every hole that could be used to bring a true picture of what's happening in Ukraine. And now, by the new law stamped by puppet Parliament in Russia, if you protest against the war, three years in jail.

If you are trying to tell the truth about Russian losses in Ukraine, you can earn 15 years behind bars. So, Russia is the -- it's now closed in this information bubble. And there are rumors -- and I would take them seriously -- that, in a few days, Putin can take Russia away from global Internet, and just to use the local network that they have been testing for a few previous years.

CAVUTO: Garry, there are a lot of people wonder how it is that Putin is surviving these sanctions and hits.

And I know we have talked in the past about he's been planning for this day and years to get ready for this day. But even the latest oil hits, we're hearing that he has in his hip pocket two interested buyers for that oil that might be sanctioned. China and India, perhaps others.

Is that enough to sustain him?

KASPAROV: No, absolutely not.

It's a myth that Putin can upset European market with Chinese in the market. It cannot be done technologically. And, also, we look at the volume of Russian gas and oil sold to Europe vis-a-vis China, it's not even close.

But Putin is expecting that he can wait West out, as he did before, because you mentioned sanctions. They are not total sanctions. There are still many loopholes. And I do not see the resolve of the free world, especially the United States, to use the sanctions to topple Putin's regime, because they continue negotiating with Putin on the Iranian deal, on Green New Deal.

So I'm puzzled. I think it's some kind of schizophrenia. So you want to stop Iran from acquiring nukes, and you use Russia, the country that is threatening to use nukes, as a place to stockpile enriched uranium. So Putin doesn't feel that this -- the united front against him will sustain the time.

And he still hopes that he can defeat the Ukrainian army and then back to the negotiating table. So I think that, unless Putin recognizes that there is no way back, we will not see any immediate results. He will continue pounding Ukrainian cities, because he cannot beat Ukraine army on battlefield.

But he knows the best how to bombard people into submission.

CAVUTO: So, let me ask you this, Garry.

The idea, the impression many in the West have -- and it could be mistaken -- is that he's now a wounded, cornered animal with very little outside support, within his own country, I should say. Is he going rogue here? Is he all on his own, and the military, oligarchs, are afraid of him?

Or are -- for example, in the case of the military, are they with him on this, that they are not advising against this?

KASPAROV: We don't know.

And I don't think we can find out. I suggest that we stop thinking about Vladimir Putin, whether he's mad and whether he can push the red button and use nukes. We have to concentrate on those who have to carry his orders.

And I think the Russian generals, they're not ready to commit suicide for dear leader. And I wonder that, if no-fly zone is imposed, there will be many kamikaze in Russian air force that will be willing to continue their murderous sorties, if they know they will meet NATO air force and will be most likely shut down.

So it's time to actually recognize it's the -- if you're not willing to use force now to stop Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, while Ukraine army is still bravely fighting on the ground, what are you going to do if he goes further?

Because when President Biden says, oh, we will fight for every inch of NATO territory, I don't believe him. (INAUDIBLE) don't believe him. But, most important, Vladimir Putin doesn't believe him, because this administration had six months at least after -- from the first meeting with Vladimir Putin in Geneva, actually more now, eight months, to help Ukraine.

And they failed it. And Vladimir Putin decided that he could go full monty, and he's still not seeing the very clear standing from Ukraine.

CAVUTO: Garry Kasparov, thank you very, very much. It's an insight we needed to hear from a fellow who knows what's really going on, and the sentiment of one Vladimir Putin, determined to change the world and turn it upside down.

Today, just looking at the markets and rocketing oil prices, he has succeeded.

We will more after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, gas prices are soaring, the national average now of $4, in some high individual gas tax states like California, by the way, over seven bucks a gallon right now.

But it's not stopping there, because oil prices continue to rock it. And that lag effect that eventually hits gas prices, that's still very, very much in effect.

And doesn't Madison Alworth know it? The latest from New Jersey, where they're feeling it -- Madison.

MADISON ALWORTH, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Neil, they're definitely feeling it.

The gas station behind me charging $4.30 for regular. It's just the prices we're seeing in New Jersey. But here's the thing. Across the U.S., these prices are way up. We have crossed the $4 mark, $4.06 today.

But with the way things are trending, with the crisis in Ukraine continuing and as a result gas prices shooting up, experts that I have spoken to have said that we should expect to hit the record high price for gas very soon. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERT SINCLAIR, AAA: With the current average at $4.06 per gallon and the all time high at $4.11 from July of 2008, I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that we will set an all-time high price for a national average for a gallon of unleaded record gasoline perhaps tomorrow, definitely sometime this week.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ALWORTH: You know, and part of the reason why he says that it's a foregone conclusion is because of how quickly we have seen prices jump and the differences from day to day.

Normally, we see a penny here, a penny there. Not the case in recent -- in the recent week. Today's average is $4.06. That's up from 5 cents yesterday and up from over 40 cents just last week. So we're just pennies away from that $4.11. That's why we could expect to hit that very soon.

Twenty states and D.C. are paying over $4 a gallon. The high prices are not slowing people down, though, at least not yet. According to GasBuddy, U.S. gasoline demand is up over 6 percent from last week. It could be because we're seeing Omicron fade into the background and people are willing to travel.

The demand is also expected to go up as we near that summer travel season. But here's the thing. These estimates are based off of what we have been seeing for quite some time now. With the invasion of Ukraine and these prices hitting record levels that we have never seen before, there might be an update to that, because, right now, Americans are also dealing with record high inflation.

The American wallet is being hit at the grocery store, at the gas pump, with energy, housing, just about everything. So, something has got to change. And, unfortunately, the change is not going to be lower gas prices. So the American family will be budgeting for that, as we expect to pay more for gas than we have ever paid for before -- Neil.

CAVUTO: All right, Madison Alworth, thanks, I think.

And, by the way, one area that hit a record today, wheat prices, the most expensive they have ever been. They have effectively doubled just since the invasion of Ukraine. And they were up a lot already ahead of this.

Ukraine, of course, Russia, if you think about it, the breadbasket for much of Europe, particularly Ukraine, that has all but shut down, and, in Russia, all but forced down.

Let's go to Peter Doocy at the White House here.

When it comes to energy, we might not want to be pushing production here, but we are talking to some strange folks elsewhere, aren't we?

PETER DOOCY, FOX NEWS WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, there is now a confirmation from the White House that they have had very early stage discussions with a trio of countries that have spotty, at best, human rights records, that would be Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela, about what it would take for them to increase oil production there.

But that means that we're not going to be increasing oil production here every single way that they possibly could, including re-allowing the construction of the Keystone pipeline to go through. So I asked the press secretary.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DOOCY: Would President Biden ever undo his executive order that stopped the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline?

JEN PSAKI, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Are you suggesting that would solve the gas prices issue?

DOOCY: Well, do you think that that would maybe affect prices faster than getting the whole country off of fossil fuels?

PSAKI: I actually don't think it would.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOOCY: So, the emphasis remains long term of getting the United States to a carbon-free future.

But this is a difficult time for officials at the White House, not just because of the complicated policies, but also because they are seeing the same images that we are. And Jen Psaki for the first time in a long time got choked up at the microphone. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PSAKI: You have mothers and children dead on the side of the road. This is heart-wrenching to watch.

And -- sorry. It is. It's heart-wrenching to watch.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOOCY: President Biden had a teleconference with allies today. We don't expect to see him on camera, though -- Neil.

CAVUTO: Peter Doocy at the White House, thank you very, very much.

Financial expert David McAlvany with us, an uncanny of what is going on the stock market and oil markets.

And, David, we have known each other for a good while. I don't like to play politics on this show, or look at this right or left, but oil -- and I always feel like reminding this administration it trades on the markets. And markets globally, trade on expectations.

So, when you rule out domestic supply, the markets read that to mean that, all right, that that is going to limit supply possibilities, prices will go still higher. And that's exactly what happened after the president on day one shut down Keystone. It wasn't the oil that was at stake at Keystone as much as the oil that would eventually come to the markets that now suddenly wasn't.

So that's the same way the stock market goes, based on sentiment and expectations and what looks good for a company going forward or not. And yet the same old tripe continues, where we base what's happening based on figures that the markets anticipates many, many months, even years going forward.

So what would be wrong with the administration considering all in on everything?

DAVID MCALVANY, FINANCIAL EXPERT: Yes, you're right to say that expectations factor in significantly, the expectations for inflation, expectations for reliable sources for oil.

And this is one of the things that big oil companies have had to deal with. In not having an open permitting policy, they basically said, we're not going to spend money to expand capacity in the United States. That is a problem. Now we're all dealing with expectations of higher gas prices.

CAVUTO: What would be the difference, David?

If they did, David, and they all of a sudden said, all right, we're going to -- we're going to look at domestic production, we're not keen on it, but these are urgent times, what would the effect be, you think?

MCALVANY: You know, I think I think it's almost too little too late, because we're dealing with an increase rig count by over 11 percent since the beginning of the year, yet we have a decrease in production by 200,000 barrels per day.

So, domestic production, I don't think you can go to shale and shake out an extra couple 100,000 barrels a day, which is what we need to do to make sure that we're off of Russian oil. Russian oil of 400,000 barrels per day, we're funding Russia. We're funding Russia $50 million to $75 million every day. That pencils out to $1.5 billion to $2.25 billion a month.

CAVUTO: So, it's going to hit us a more, right, for -- in the time being.

MCALVANY: Yes. It will.

CAVUTO: But let me ask you about Russia.

The talk is that it has its hip pocket China as a guaranteed customer that oil, maybe India, maybe others, and it's not going to be as impacted by this as some certainly in the West hope. Is that true?

MCALVANY: I think that is true.

I mean, you saw China step in, in 2019, when we imposed sanctions on Venezuela, and China was the buyer. So again, we will have a buyer for India -- or for Russian oil. And I agree with Garry's comments earlier that maybe they're not the complete solution. But look at this year.

Look at this year and January in particular. The current account surplus in Russia was 50 percent larger in January than it was simply because the price of oil is higher. In essence, they could sell a lot less oil and make as much money as they typically do because of the higher oil price.

So I think, actually, you could say that China is sufficient, China is sufficient to take care of Russia's needs. In this sense, I think Xi Jinping is the only person who can broker peace. And that may be what ultimately takes off the head of steam that we see building in the oil markets.

CAVUTO: Got it.

David, thank you very, very much, David McAlvany following all of that.

Some historical perspective here, though, folks. As frightening as this oil price run-up is, we have been here before. Back in 2008, we saw oil prices rocket to better than $145 a barrel. Then along came the -- what you would expect, a slowdown from the run-up in oil prices. And then, of course, we had the financial crisis.

And little more than four or five months after that, they had collapsed to $31 a barrel. But, by then, the whole world was in a meltdown. The hope is, it doesn't repeat itself.

Let's get to read on a little bit. It's from lieutenant General Jerry Boykin, the former undersecretary of defense, former Delta Force commander.

General, that's a frightening scenario, where all of a sudden a big economic issue then becomes a global security issue. Oil prices run up, it forces some economies to slow down and, worse, get into a recession. And that is the problem for the world. It becomes both economic and military.

Is that your worst fear?

LT. GEN. JERRY BOYKIN (RET.), U.S. ARMY: Well, yes, I mean, it certainly is a great fear of mine.

And if you look at the fact that we're -- we're actually negotiating for more oil production with Venezuela and Iran? Really? We have recognized Guaido as the president of Venezuela, and who are we negotiating with? Maduro. This makes no sense.

It is foolishness. And what we're talking about doing here is funding -- if we cut a deal with Iran, we're talking about funding their nuclear program, because that's exactly what's going to happen. And Maduro is the same thing. We're going to be funding a guy that is hated by his own people, a guy that has killed his own people, and a guy that has not been recognized, essentially, by the international community.

This makes no sense. If Joe Biden has any reputation left, it's going to be impacted by this kind of nonsense, Neil.

CAVUTO: You know, General, I was talking to an oil expert on FOX Business today. And he had a very interesting take on this that, as much pain, as Vladimir Putin is getting thrown at him, he's of the mind-set, that is, Vladimir Putin is of the mind-set, I can take it, the West cannot.

I can deal with this, the West is going to fold like a cheap suit, this was his words, in the face of these sanctions that are going to boomerang on them, which is why he suspects Europe is very, very reluctant to go along with totally banning all Russian oil.

But what do you make of that? Is he right about that? Is Putin gambling that we quit before he does?

BOYKIN: Well, I think that Putin has made a lot of miscalculations in this whole thing from the very beginning.

But I don't buy into the fact that he is irrational or that he is -- he's got some cognitive deficits. I think he is Vladimir Putin. He's doing exactly what Vladimir Putin does. And I do believe that your guest was right. I do believe that he thinks that he can win this by simply waiting us out.

And I think that he knows that we are desperate for energy. We're desperate to bring down the cost of energy especially. So I think that Vladimir Putin is going to try and do everything he can to hold on and expecting us to ultimately find a way to give him an off-ramp.

I don't see that off-ramp right now.

CAVUTO: So, you think, general, that he is snickering that when he sees us talking to Venezuela, trying to score deal with Iran, that he's saying this is going to plan, just as I thought?

BOYKIN: Listen, what else could he think when he's looking -- he looks at us.

Iran is an enemy. There's no question about it. Iran is an enemy. And when he looks at that and says, now you're going to help them fund their nuclear program, you're going to help them build their military, because you're going to give them billions of dollars, that makes no sense. That is irrational.

And Putin is looking at that just like he did when we lifted the sanctions on Nord Stream 2 pipeline. You're going to close your pipeline and open mine? Well, there's -- that's good. That's a good thing, because, obviously, you're afraid of me. Obviously, you're really scared that I'm going to do something.

And what has happened now is, he did. And he did because he saw that kind of irrational thinking with regards to foreign policy. And it's just beyond me, Neil, to understand it or explain it.

CAVUTO: That was amazing.

General, thank you very, very much. Maybe all this time, we have been getting it wrong exactly who the irrational player is.

Stick around. You're watching "Your World."

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, let's get an idea of what's happening right now in Ukraine, particularly the capital there.

Illia Ponomarenko is a Kyiv Independent reporter, been very closely following developments day by day.

What's the latest there, Illia?

ILLIA PONOMARENKO, THE KYIV INDEPENDENT: Well, the latest thing is that Russian advancement in Kyiv, in their attempts to do encircle the Kyiv has stalled northwest of Kyiv in suburbs, best suburbs, the most prosperous suburbs of the city, which is Bucha and Irpin.

And so far, the Russian movement has stalled. And as far as we can see, these giant forces that have been concentrated on this direction, they are definitely suffering from troubles in terms of logistics and fuel supplies.

So, their movement is extremely complicated and hard. So they are not making significant successes in terms of taking Kyiv in the grip.

CAVUTO: It seems like they target other spots and port cities and much of the south. I'm not sure whether that represents a head fake or that this infamous 40-mile-long tank caravan has been stopped in its path.

Can you tell us what's happened to that?

PONOMARENKO: Well, I was talking directly about the Kyiv direction.

CAVUTO: Right.

PONOMARENKO: And we definitely have this caravan, this giant caravan going as basically one giant traffic jam coming along the highways between Belarus and Kyiv.

So it stalled. As the military says, it stalled because of logistics supply -- logistics troubles and fuel supply. So it basically stands still for days. And, meanwhile, the Ukrainian military, they are using these fast and active defense tactics. And they attacking these forces, disturbing them and breaking their supply lines, and causing even more trouble for the movements.

That so that's why basically they have stalled in this direction. And on the other side of Kyiv. they're absolutely far away. They are failing to get cities of Kharkiv, for instance, Sumy, and taking these cities under control is absolutely essential for the siege of Kyiv. And so far, they are not even close to getting what they want to.

CAVUTO: All right, Illia, be safe yourself. I know these are scary times.

PONOMARENKO: Thank you.

CAVUTO: And we appreciate your insight and reporting from, well, actually the most dangerous region in the world right now, Illia Ponomarenko.

We have a lot more coming up, including the view from China, very, very quiet through this. But we did get a warning from Beijing: Do not try to NATO our neck of the woods -- after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: China has not been saying that much on Ukraine, but it has gone ahead and warn the U.S. about forming a Pacific NATO.

Gordon Chang, China expert extraordinaire, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," on that.

Gordon, obviously, China's sending a message here: Don't do what you're doing with Ukraine in our neck of the woods. What do you make of it?

GORDON CHANG, AUTHOR, "THE COMING COLLAPSE OF CHINA": I think that China's very worried about a NATO.

They can see Eastern Europe, and that Ukraine, although it had the Budapest Memorandum guarantees, doesn't have NATO membership. And so, therefore, the West has allowed Russia to break Ukraine apart. But they're worried that Taiwan, if it does get a NATO-like guarantee of some sort, would be protected.

And, of course, the region is starting to band against China. There are all the U.S. existing treaty networks. There's the new AUKUS alliance, that's the United States, Australia, U.K., and the Quad formation. So Beijing has to be worried about the encirclement that, by the way, it itself has caused.

CAVUTO: Do you think, given the developments in Ukraine and all the sanctions and the whole world piling on Russia, that China is less likely to do anything provocative with Taiwan in this environment?

Because, if the same such response were heaped on China, it would be a fatal blow. So whatever plans that they have for Taiwan, they have put them off? What do you think?

CHANG: First of all, during this year, Xi Jinping, the Chinese ruler, is inward-focused, because he wants a precedent-breaking third term as general secretary of the Communist Party.

And if the schedule holds from previous years, he should get it sometime toward October or November. But your bigger point is absolutely right. And that is, what Russia has done by invading Ukraine is sort of made clear to the rest of the world that we can no longer be unserious, that all of the assumptions that have guided us since the end of the Cold War, they're out the window, and that we are back to a very different international system that looks like it's falling apart.

So I think that will benefit Taiwan. But it also means that China, of course, is now very closely connected with Russia. And so, therefore, we face, effectively, an entente or maybe even an axis against us.

CAVUTO: Gordon, thank you very, very much.

Gordon Chang following those developments.

We're also following developments closer to Ukraine, where better than 1.7 million are trying to get the heck out of the country or already have. Those numbers are increasing by about 200,000 a day. What's happening there?

After this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: One-point-seven million Ukrainians trying to leave that horror, and the numbers are growing each and every day.

Mike Tobin in Lviv, Ukraine, with the latest on the greatest crush of humanity we have seen trying to get out since World War II.

What's the latest, Tobin.

MIKE TOBIN, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: And, Neil, let's start -- well, let's start you off with the latest.

And that is some new imagery of some Russian airstrikes on what appears to be an oil depot, resulting really in a tremendous ball of flames. And, of course, when you get a big burn at an oil depot like this, you get the ecological disaster and the pollution. And that's just part of the reason why you have so many people trying to flee to safety from this country.

What you have are people going from all the battle zones. Largely, they're heading by rail, or at least those who are escaping by rail are heading to the capital city of Kyiv. There's a train that leaves out of Kyiv. You don't need a ticket. The train doesn't run on a schedule.

As soon as passenger cars fill up, they roll west here to the city of Lviv. The problem is, there are only four trains a day leaving in the direction of Poland or in some of the other towns, and, therefore -- or other countries, I should say.

And, therefore, you have people piling up here in the city of Lviv. But when they do get to Poland -- you talk about 1.7 million people who have left the country. A million alone have gone into Poland alone. And in Poland, you have businesses, you have private sector, you have government and individuals who are all pitching in for temporary housing, to take care of these people medically.

In some cases, they're just taking them into their own homes and there are people outside making hot soup. So, you have a lot of people pitching in as you have this tremendous crush, the kind of thing that we haven't seen since World War II, Neil.

CAVUTO: You know, Mike, when you talk about these people, now, of course, they hear how Russia broke that humanitarian agreement.

They agreed to another one today. But to hear the Ukrainians tell it, a lot of these people were targeted as they were moving out or trying to get out. How has that affected just the process?

TOBIN: Well, it's hard.

And we also heard from the Russians. And they, of course, blamed their Ukrainian counterparts for the fact that these cease-fires have fallen apart.

And, well, how it's affected them is, simply, they can't leave yet. And you're talking about towns like Mariupol, where they had been pinned down without food or water for as long as a week now. They're trying to get out. But, when they try to get out, the artillery fire strikes up again and they got to go back to the shelters.

CAVUTO: Mike Tobin, thank you very, very much, my friend, Mike in Lviv on all of that.

Again, between the crush of humanity and the crisis that is there, it seems sort of incidental to talk about financial pain here and markets collapsing pretty much everywhere.

Would that the Ukrainians would care about markets right now and livelihoods, when they're much more worried about their lives. Their priorities are right. For the world, the fright is real as well financially, for them, only financially, but, for them, for those in Ukraine, life and death.

Here's "The Five."

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