Recap of Oct. 11: Will Arnold Boost the Market?

DISCLAIMER: THE FOLLOWING "Cashin' In Recap" CONTAINS STRONG OPINIONS WHICH ARE NOT A REFLECTION OF THE OPINIONS OF FOX NEWS AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS INVESTMENT ADVICE WHEN MAKING PERSONAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS. IT IS FOX NEWS' POLICY THAT CONTRIBUTORS DISCLOSE POSITIONS THEY HOLD IN STOCKS THEY DISCUSS, THOUGH POSITIONS MAY CHANGE. READERS OF "Cashin' In Recap" MUST TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR OWN INVESTMENT DECISIONS.

Stock Smarts

Now he’s Governor Arnold, a man in charge of the fifth largest economy in the world. And the state is in a mess, with a huge deficit and massive job losses. But if Arnold does the job and turns California around, will he also help boost the national economy, the stock market and get President Bush re-elected?

Gary Kaltbaum of Kaltbaum and Associates believes that if Arnold gets the California economy going, then he will help to get America going too. One thing that’s important is perception; right now the perception is that California is not a business friendly state. He needs to change that. He likes Arnold as a businessman – and the only place the state has to go is up. The budget deficit for the nation will be less than expected, so the timing is good for Arnold. Gary has been defensive over the past few weeks with stocks, and he thinks the hottest stocks are the foreign stocks. He is worried that the market has factored in some good news already in terms of earnings and the economy.

Hilary Kramer of A&G Capital says that this is not a movie, and that Arnold can’t fix everything in “two hours”. There aren’t enemies that he can just shoot up and destroy. It will take him a lot of time.

Wayne Rogers of Wayne Rogers & Co doesn’t think Arnold can change the California economy. And he is now facing an economic problem, not a political problem. People are leaving California for other states. He thinks that Arnold is a bright guy, but it just doesn’t happen that quickly, and he has a Democratic house and senate to deal with, which will makes things difficult. Wayne is buying stocks here but he is cautious, and he likes foreign stocks

Jonas Max Ferris of Maxfunds.com disagrees and says California is a place that everyone loves and that people are moving there all the time. It’s the original “boom and bust” state, so they cycles run low and high. Arnold really can’t fix a lot of this stuff. He ignored his one-time advisor Warren Buffett, who wanted to raise taxes, but Arnold can’t just make things happen without new sources of revenue. He also says the hottest stocks are out in California.

Jonathan Hoenig of Capitalistpig Asset Management says that California is a microcosm of the nation. Right now he is focusing on overseas stocks.

Be$t Bets: Wayne’s World of Stocks

If you’ve been following the “Cashin’ In Challenge”, you know that Wayne Rogers is leading the pack by a pretty wide margin. (Check out the latest results at: www.foxnews.com/challenge)

So what are Wayne’s best ideas for your portfolio?

Intel (INTC)

Friday's close (10-10-03): $30.43

Wayne says that the electronics companies are coming back, and Intel is fundamental to that. The stock has a good chart, and he sees and up-trend since $15. He doesn’t think that the stock has huge upside potential (it will still go up), but it has limited downside potential, which he likes. Hilary thinks it’s too expensive. Gary is worried that it had a big run and that people are now starting to like it – but Intel will beat earnings and that will help. Jonathan doesn’t like Intel right now.

Vishay Intertechnology (VSH)

Friday's close (10-10-03): $19.90

Wayne says this company is the largest maker of “passive components”, they are in 35 countries and sales are up this year. He also loves the management. Hilary likes this play; they are big in military contracts. Gary likes the action in the stock, noting big volume to the upside. Jonathan says the momentum is big-time with technology, but it’s still not his play right now.

PetroKazakhstan (PKN)

Friday's close (10-10-03): $20.06

Wayne loves this stock: earnings up over 100 percent and sitting on a lot of oil right now – just a great company. Jonathan, Gary and Hilary also like this stock. And everyone preaches the idea of stop/loss orders.

Mutual Fund Face-Off: Killer Funds

What’s the best investment for a hired assassin? Actress Vivica A. Fox plays one in the new movie “Kill Bill”, and she told us that she’s been burned by stock in the past. She wants to know what to do, so Dagen and Jonas came up with a couple of funds that could make her money without the fear of getting burned!

Jonas: Gateway Fund (GATEX)

Year-to-date (as of 10-10-03): UP 9.0 percent

Minimum Investment: $1,000

Expenses: $9.70 for every $1,000 invested.

Dagen: Fidelity Freedom 2020 Fund (FFFDX)

Year-to-date (as of 10-10-03): UP 17.9 percent

Minimum Investment: $2,500

Expenses: $9.00 for every $1,000 invested

Money Mail

Dagen, Jonathan and Wayne answered some of your questions.

Question: “Since October is so volatile, should I stay out this month expecting stocks to drop, or should I buy?”

Wayne says that October is a terrible month historically, but he isn’t necessarily a believer in these things. He looks at the stocks and how they are doing as opposed to seasonal trends or “superstitions”. He is buying stocks right now but is very cautious. Dagen says following the calendar is not always a good thing. The book says to sell in May and go away, and we had a double digit move this summer. Jonathan doesn’t look to the seasons – you trade the market, not the calendar.

Question: “I inherited $140,000 and would like to know if I should pay off my $100,000, 6 percent mortgage or invest it elsewhere?”

Dagen says you can have it both ways: pay of the $100,000 and take the $40,000 to invest in stocks.

Question: “I bought Phelps Dodge (PD) at $45 after the blackout. It's now over $50 - should I sell?”

Jonathan says to hold on to this stock; copper price are very strong. Jonathan owns Southern Peru Copper (PCU). He would put a stop loss on PD at $44.10 - $44.25. Wayne would stay with this stock, and Dagen also likes this one.

Question: “I'm holding a significant position in Kellogg (K). Is it crunchy or soggy going forward?”

Wayne thinks Kellogg rides with the economy, so if the economy makes a strong move, watch for Kellogg to mirror that move. Jonathan and Dagen don’t like the stock all that much.