New signs union members gravitating toward Trump in Ohio

Report: AFL-CIO launching ad campaign to try to dampen union workers' support for Trump

This is a rush transcript from "Your World," March 11, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

NEIL CAVUTO, HOST: The casket of Nancy Reagan after the funeral service in Simi Valley, California, soon to be rejoined in a crypt that holds her husband, Ronald Reagan.

And it just seems that some things come full circle and are almost timed to the political moment when we hearken back to a president, the last Republican who won the union vote, at a time union leaders are very concerned that they could be facing inroads on the part of another Republican, Donald Trump, who has been seizing larger and larger chunks of that union vote.

I`m not here to compare Ronald Reagan with Donald Trump, but I am here to talk about some union chieftains, like the AFL-CIO, and Richard Trumka and others, noting this and fearing this and doing their darndest to stop this.

Pollster Floyd Ciruli on that. Floyd, what do you make of that? What they`re all saying, to a man and a woman, these union chieftains and the like, is, hey, these Trump voters are a lot of us. Right?

FLOYD CIRULI, FOUNDER, CIRULI ASSOCIATES: Absolutely.

His key demographic are white, working-class, somewhat lower-income voters. That`s what has been really fueling his entire campaign. They are very anti-establishment. They`re very concerned about the economy.

And, of course, that`s one of his strengths. And so he did well in Michigan. And it`s reasonable to assume he`s going to do well in Ohio. So, I think the union leaders are wise to be concerned about their rank- and-file.

CAVUTO: You know, Floyd, maybe you can help me with this. And I was discussing with our last few guests that there is a real palpable rage from the establishment and others. The super conservative are not really keen on Donald Trump, but Trump`s argument has been -- and it`s been verified in some polls, not all -- that there`s been enough crossover appeal in people who heretofore never voted Republican, in some cases never voted at all, or Democrats who have become sort of like the latest Reagan Democrats, if you will, who are moving over to Donald Trump.

What do you make of that? How real is that? How much of a threat to Democrats is that? What do you think?

CIRULI: It is definitely real.

And it is Trump`s best argument for the general election. I think he -- and you will notice that the turnout in the Republican primaries is well above the Democratic primaries and caucuses. It has been just tremendous. And these are new voters, many of them to the Republicans. Some of them have returned.

They were Reagan Democrats, but they went away for a while. And, in my opinion, if he can keep them in the party in November, I think that makes him competitive. I agree the polls still show that she is winning, but, as you know, this is -- as you pointed out, that when Reagan first entered the presidential race, he was well behind.

This ends up being a choice. She has her favorability problems, her trust problems. And Trump, while he brings his issues, he also brings a lot of these new voters. And if they stay, that`s also the problem for the party in terms of trying to have a contested convention. There`s no way at a certain point they could deny him the nomination and expect those voters to be around in November.

CAVUTO: Let me ask you about that, because Donald Trump said something interesting today when he was with Ben Carson, who will be joining us shortly, that if he has a big enough lead -- I`m paraphrasing here -- that alone should say the party should get behind him.

Now, obviously, you need 1,237, or you don`t have it, period. But I guess his argument is, if I have such a commanding lead, you can`t be trying to take this from me.

What do you make of what he is saying and whether it`s a threat?

CIRULI: You know, it has -- it has some threat quality it to, but it`s also true, in that if Trump gets to 1,000 or a little above 1,000 delegates, that is millions of people that have voted in primaries which have set records.

How do you then take that away from that individual? Could he run as an independent? Absolutely. But, even if he chose not to, endorsements don`t mean a lot in this race, in my opinion, and his -- his not being the nominee is going to be very, very difficult.

It just seems to me that they are going to have to stop him well before that if they`re going to be able to. Obviously, Ohio, Florida, are going to be key in the next week.

CAVUTO: Yes.

All right. Thank you, my friend. Always good educating me. I very much appreciate that, Floyd Ciruli, a pollster extraordinaire.

END

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