Democratic Senate Shakeup Coming in November?

This is a RUSH transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," February 17, 2010. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

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BILL O'REILLY, HOST: "Personal Story" segment tonight, reports are the Democratic Party is very concerned it may lose eight Senate seats next November. That comes two days after Senator Evan Bayh announced he would not run for re-election in Indiana.

Joining us now from Washington with the inside story Fox News analyst Charles Krauthammer.

OK. Basically, if things don't improve in the country, if the economy stays flat, and the spending is still wildly out of control, you say that it will be 51-49 the Democrats will lead the Senate come -- after November?

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, FOX NEWS ANALYST: Well, there are eight seats now held by Democrats that are in play where Republicans are ahead. Of those, it's quite possible that you could get all eight going. You could get all eight going Republican. I think it will probably be seven.

Three of these are slam dunk Republicans. That's Delaware, where that's the Biden seat. That's -- there is a popular Republican in the governor who is going to sweep that.

There's a slam dunk in North Dakota. Senator Dorgan is resigning. The popular Republican governor is running. He's up by 50 points.

And then you've got Arkansas where poor Blanche Lincoln is trailing everybody. She couldn't even beat Mussolini, although that one would probably end up in a run-off. Then you've got...

O'REILLY: All right, so you're saying that Blanche -- Blanche is through, no matter what. Do they have -- do Republicans have anybody running against Blanche? Is anybody running against her?

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KRAUTHAMMER: They've got several candidates, each of whom is way ahead almost by 10 or 20 points. So anybody will beat her. Any Republican who has got an "R" after his name is going to win.

O'REILLY: Harry Reid is the big name. The Senate majority leader in Nevada. And you say he's going to get booted out of there, huh?

KRAUTHAMMER: Well, he's one of those -- he's got money and he is a majority leader. But he's way behind all of his challengers. Of those endangered, he has some chance of pulling it out. If the election were held today, he's toast. It is nine months away. He could have a recovery. But he's way behind.

And then you've got...

O'REILLY: Colorado?

KRAUTHAMMER: Yes. Colorado, you've got an appointed senator, a Democratic senator who's way behind, who's going to lose.

Now, the most interesting, I think, is Arlen Specter. The renegade squared, the Democrat who became a Republican who's now a Democrat. He's trailing...

O'REILLY: In Pennsylvania.

KRAUTHAMMER: Exactly. He's trailing Pat Toomey by about 10 points. And remember, one of the reasons Specter became a Democrat is because he was afraid if he ran in the Republican primary against Toomey, he'd get beaten. The problem is he'll lose in the general election against him, because independents have swung away from the Democrats, as we saw in the elections in New Jersey.

O'REILLY: So you -- are you saying flat-out, Charles, that Specter is done? Are you saying he's going to lose?

KRAUTHAMMER: I think Specter has got about an 80 percent chance of losing. I would say about the same for Harry Reid.

O'REILLY: Wow.

KRAUTHAMMER: Between now and November it could change.

O'REILLY: Yes, sure. I mean, events could overtake it.

KRAUTHAMMER: If they were held today, he'd lose.

O'REILLY: We all know that.

KRAUTHAMMER: He'd lose 100 percent if it were held today.

O'REILLY: And Barack Obama's seat in Illinois, do you think that could possibly go to Republican in that kind of a blue state?

KRAUTHAMMER: Well, that's what's really interesting. That's a possible pickup. And the reason is that the Republican candidate is strong. It's a guy called Mark Kirk. He's a congressman. He's a centrist. He's quite popular. He's running against a reasonably unimpressive Democrat who came out of the primaries. So, under normal circumstances, the strong candidate will beat a weak one.

However, as you say, it's a blue state. I think if the election were held today, Kirk wins. But I think that the Republican fortunes are not going to remain this strong and good into the end of the year. So it's possible that it will be a real -- it will be a dead heat right there.

O'REILLY: OK.

KRAUTHAMMER: Now you've got one state left.

O'REILLY: The buzz here -- the buzz here in California is that Barbara Boxer could be in trouble. Do you think Boxer is in any danger out here?

KRAUTHAMMER: Well, she's only up by about 4 points. And in a state like that, a blue, blue state, which is heavily Democratic, she ought to be way ahead. There's this huge, you know, people are tired of incumbents. They're tired of Democrats, and they're tired of her. So she shouldn't even have a close race. But she will.

I think she's likely to win, because it's a heavily Democratic state. And because circumstances are just obscenely good right now if you're a Republican, and they're not going to remain that way indefinitely. But she's in a -- in a tough fight.

O'REILLY: Now you say they're not going to remain that way. If everything -- look, it's only 8 months we're talking about here until November. And it looks to me like the economy may improve somewhat. But the spending debacle is going to be in play.

And, you know, what else is there that could drive the Democratic Party -- and we only have 30 seconds -- back to, you know, providence in the eyes of the voters?

KRAUTHAMMER: If it comes to its senses. It pursued an agenda last year, a left-wing agenda. It went over a cliff. It lost the Kennedy seat in Massachusetts. A rational response is to go to the center. I think it probably will try to do something of that sort in order that it saves its skin in November.

O'REILLY: All right, Charles. Thanks very much.

KRAUTHAMMER: But don't always count on rationality in Democrats.

O'REILLY: Or in politics in general.

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