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Short weeks favor the better coaches because the sharper minds don’t need as much time to prepare. Or at least that’s my working theory for backing the Los Angeles Rams (7-7) when they host the New Orleans Saints (7-7) at SoFi Stadium for Thursday Night Football in Week 16.
The Rams are 10-5 straight up (SU) and 9-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games on less than six days of rest since hiring head coach Sean McVay in 2017. Los Angeles has a +8.1 scoring margin and +5.5 spread differential in those games.
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Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams celebrates with Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams during a game against the Washington Commanders at SoFi Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Ric Tapia/Getty Images)
Saints head coach Dennis Allen is 1-8 SU (-7.9 scoring margin) and 2-7 ATS (-5.2 spread differential) in those spots dating back to his days as the then-Oakland Raiders coach. Allen-led teams are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in Thursday games. This includes New Orleans’s 31-24 loss at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7.
LAR usually turns it on at this time of the year. They are 19-11 SU and 21-9 ATS in regular-season games under McVay once December hits. As home favorites in that spot, Los Angeles is 7-2 SU and ATS with a +11.0 scoring margin.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams Odds (PointsBet)
- Moneyline: Saints (+175) | Rams (-210)
- Spread: Saints +4 (-110) | RAMS -4 (-110)
- Total — 45 — Over: -110 | Under: -110
People are too low on the 2021 Super Bowl champs. Inpredictable.com says the market makes the Rams +0.5 points better than an average NFL. That ranks them ninth and +1.8 better than the Saints. Neither are accurate.
The Detroit Lions are the eighth-best team, +2.2 points better than LAR, and I’d HAMMER the "Rams +2" vs. the Lions on a neutral field. The market isn’t weighing "strength of schedule" enough into these rankings.
Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints is introduced before the game against the New York Giants at Caesars Superdome on December 17, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Per Pro Football Focus, the Rams have faced the 11th-toughest schedule and the Saints have played the second-easiest. LAR’s only embarrassing loss is 43-20 blowout at the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8. They have three one-score losses to the San Francisco 49ers, at the Cincinnati Bengals with Joe Burrow and at the Baltimore Ravens.
The market is propping up New Orleans after allowing 6 points in B2B wins over the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants in Weeks 14-15. Let’s be real. Holding Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young and Giants rookie QB Tommy DeVito to 6 points each isn’t that impressive. Carolina and NYG are two of the worst four NFL teams this year.
But, the Saints lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-9. They took back-to-back (B2B) losses at the Minnesota Vikings with QB Josh Dobbs and at the Atlanta Falcons with Desmond Ridder in Weeks 10 and 12. For the record, the Saints lost to the Falcons 24-15 with now-Atlanta second-string QB Desmond Ridder AFTER a bye week.
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Furthermore, the Rams clearly have a better quarterback-coach combo (McVay and QB Matt Stafford). They are averaging 34.5 points over their last four games. LAR put up 36 and 37 points in B2B games vs. the Cleveland Browns and Ravens in Weeks 13-14. Both Cleveland and Baltimore have better defenses than New Orleans.
Kyren Williams #23 of the Los Angeles Rams carries the ball as he is defended by Cody Barton #57 of the Washington Commanders during the first half of the game at SoFi Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Harry How/Getty Images)
Los Angeles’s offense has balance with an elite WR tandem, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and an underrated RB Kyren Williams. The Saints don’t have this same offensive balance. They average only 3.7 yards per rush, which ranks 29th, and QB Derek Carr is 21st in QBR.
Finally, the Rams are much healthier than the Saints. LAR could be getting RT Rob Havenstein back this week. Whereas the Saints will most likely be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore and WR Michael Thomas. New Orleans WR Chris Olave is "questionable" for Thursday as well.
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My prediction: Rams 27, Saints 19
- Bet 2.2 units on Los Angeles -4 (-110) vs. the Saints at PointsBet and the Rams are playable up to -6. Let’s say "1 unit" equals $10.
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