Summertime is soccer time on the 2024 sports betting calendar. And if the U.S. Men’s National Team is involved, then there’s a guarantee of heightened interest.
Such is the case with Copa America odds.
But can the USMNT keep up with the tournament’s top teams, all from South America?
"It would be a historic and unprecedented feat for the U.S. to win Copa America," FOX Sports soccer analyst Alexi Lalas said.
Stadiums across the United States will host the tournament, with all matches broadcast on either FOX, FS1 or FS2. Lalas, a former USMNT standout defender, serves up his insights on odds to win Copa America.
Home Underdog
Although Team USA is on home soil, it sits as the co-fifth choice in odds to win Copa America. FanDuel Sportsbook has the U.S. men’s team at +1400, along with Colombia. That’s a tick behind No. 4 Mexico, at +1300, and well behind the three odds leaders: Argentina (+175), Brazil (+220) and Uruguay (+550).
A wager on the USMNT would pay out nicely if — and it’s a big if — the American side makes an upstart run to the championship. A $100 wager would profit $1,400, for a $1,500 total payout.
Working in the Americans’ favor is their draw into Group C. The U.S. opens June 23 against Bolivia, which is ranked a distant 85th in the world. Then on June 27, the USMNT meets Panama, ranked 45th.
If the U.S. wins both matches, as it’s certainly expected to, then it would advance to the knockout stage, regardless of the result in the Group C finale vs. Uruguay on July 1. While Lalas is skeptical of a deep run, he’s also got a dash of American optimism.
"The U.S. has gone to the semifinals in two of the four Copa Americas they have participated in," Lalas said, alluding to the 1995 and 2016 tournaments. "The biggest strength of this team is the familiarity and connection that this group has been able to have. We have seen them grow from a talented group of teenage boys to experienced men.
"But it’s time for them to prove that they are worthy of the praise they have been given."
Leading that group is 25-year-old captain and midfielder Tyler Adams, and star forward Christian Pulisic, also 25. Lalas said Team USA has to turn its experience into confidence, then success, on the bigger stage.
"Their biggest weakness may be believing that they can do what hasn’t been done before," he said.
Favored Nations
As noted above, Argentina and Brazil are a close 1-2 in the Copa America odds market, with a little margin between those two and Uruguay. Argentina, ranked No. 1 in the world in the wake of its 2022 World Cup championship is the defending Copa America champion.
In the 2021 Copa final, Argentina beat Brazil 1-0 on the Brazilians’ home turf in Rio de Janeiro.
Soccer superstar Lionel Messi leads Argentina, which opens June 20 vs. Canada at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Argentina then heads to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., for a June 25 match vs. Chile.
Then Messi, who now plays for Inter Miami in the MLS, gets a homecoming for Argentina’s Group A finale vs. Peru, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Hard Rock Stadium will also host the championship match July 14, and Lalas seems to like the Argentinian side’s chances of reaching that match.
"Argentina is safe money, especially with Messi playing in his new backyard," Lalas said, alluding to one and potentially two matches in Miami. "Brazil will want to spoil the party, despite many feeling that this particular Brazil team is more Brazil Lite. Vini Junior has an opportunity to lead a Neymar-less Brazil back to glory and shed the criticism that he can’t translate his Real Madrid form to Brazil."
At +175, a $100 bet on Argentina to win Copa America would profit $175, for a total payout of $275. Brazil at +225 offers a little better wagering result, with a $100 bet profiting $225 for a $325 total payout.
Then there’s Uruguay, rightfully seen as a legitimate contender in Copa America futures odds. At +550, a $100 bet would profit $550, for a total payout of $650 if Uruguay lifts the trophy.
"Uruguay is not sneaky good, they are just good," Lalas said. "Now, with [manager] Marcelo Bielsa at the helm, he might put it all together and justify the bullish feeling of so many."
Dark Horse
It’s rare to term the fourth team on a 16-team odds board a dark horse. But with significant separation between the top three teams and the rest of the field, it’s perhaps appropriate in this case.
A $100 bet on Mexico would profit $1,300, for a $1,400 total payout if El Tri wins the tournament. Lalas wouldn’t be entirely surprised if it happens.
"Mexico flipping the script and going on a run would be peak Mexico," he said. "I can’t think of a time when the El Tri fan base has been more pessimistic and down on the team. Copa miracle incoming!"
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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