Senate Power Rankings: Hot and cold

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A look at the races that will decide which party controls the Senate

Fox News chief political anchor and 'Special Report' host Bret Baier has the latest

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On the roster: Senate Power Rankings: Hot and cold - I’ll Tell You What: Blatherskite - Trump nudges toward $2 trillion stimulus offer - Trump fumes over news that ‘Obamagate’ probe will wait - At least he had his phone while he waited

SENATE POWER RANKINGS: HOT AND COLD
So what kind of election is this, really?

Is it the kind of election that we had in 2016? That was when, for the first time since the direct election of senators, not a single state split parties between its Senate and presidential preferences.

Is it the kind of election we had in 1996? That’s when despite a massive blowout at the top of the ticket, the other party still managed to gain seats.

The conventional wisdom holds that the new normal of hyper-partisanship means that the party that wins the presidency will control the Senate, too. We have our doubts, especially if the current trend in the presidential race holds. If the incumbent gets shellacked like that, we imagine there would be lots of ticket splitting as voters place a higher value on divided government.

But we have to be prepared that this might be the kind of election that we saw in 2008. That’s when voters threw out Republicans up and down the ballot, costing Senate GOPers eight seats just two years after a six-seat bloodbath in 2006.

That year Democrats didn’t just win where they were expected to, like Pennsylvania and Ohio, but in Virginia, Missouri and Montana as well. A high correlation between Senate and presidential votes like that would be a GOP doomsday.

That’s not what we’re seeing yet as key Senate contests remain very competitive and control of the upper chamber seems very much up for grabs. That’s why we have continued to be generous in our descriptions of what constitutes a “toss-up” race. But neither can we ignore the fact that the map is expanding for Democrats. With that in mind, we are making two adjustments to our Senate race ratings in two very Republican states: South Carolina and Alaska.

SOUTH CAROLINA: LIKELY REPUBLICAN TO LEAN REPUBLICAN
We have been skeptics of the idea that South Carolina, which went for Donald Trump by 14 points in 2016 is somehow now a battleground. We have been even more skeptical in the notion that Trump would win the state but not have long enough coattails to bring Lindsey Graham with him.

We are still skeptics, but we cannot ignore week after week of polling from multiple outlets that shows Graham in a dead heat with former state Democratic Chairman Jaime Harrison. Nor can we ignore that the polls show relatively few undecided voters remaining. Certainly, Graham and Senate Republicans are taking the threat seriously as they pour money into the contest.

Next week, Graham will get to pilot the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett through the Judiciary Committee of which he presides. This should be a boost for him, but we can wait no longer. This seat is clearly in play.

ALASKA: LIKELY REPUBLICAN TO LEAN REPUBLICAN
The 49th state is like an impressionist painting of a red state. From far away, the picture is clear, but the closer you get the fuzzier things become. And Sen. Dan Sullivan is starting to look a little fuzzy.

Let’s start with the understanding that Alaska, like Senate battleground Montana, defies easy polling. Big, sparsely populated and politically unpredictable, Alaska is no cookie-cutter job. Sullivan knows that well from his 2014 win when he just barely knocked off Democratic incumbent Mark Begich. And Begich had only won because his predecessor, Ted Stevens, was embroiled in a massive corruption scandal.

The fuzziness this time around is supplied by independent Al Gross. Democrats in Alaska this year held a joint primary with the Libertarians and the Alaska Independence Party. That allows Gross to run with the support of Democrats, now including hefty infusions of cash from outside the state, without having to run as a Democrat himself. Sullivan, meanwhile, has to drag all the negatives of his party into the race. The ongoing conflict between Trump and popular Sen. Lisa Murkowski does Sullivan no favors.

We still think Republicans are more likely to prevail here than Gross and his coalition backing, but who knows? It is Alaska after all. If this is shaping up to be a year like 2008 or worse for Republicans, it could be seats like these that tip over in heavy waves.

We’ll keep you posted on any changes, but you can always track our race ratings for the Electoral College and Senate right here.

THE RULEBOOK: CHA-CHING
“A complete power, therefore, to procure a regular and adequate supply of [money], as far as the resources of the community will permit, may be regarded as an indispensable ingredient in every constitution.” – Alexander Hamilton, writing about the power of taxation, Federalist No. 30

TIME OUT: WEST VIRGIN-IA
Fox Business: “Virgin Hyperloop has selected West Virginia as the site for a $500 million certification center that will serve as a test track for a high-speed transportation system, the company announced Thursday. More than a dozen states submitted bids to become the future site of the six-mile track, and other facilities on more than 800 acres in Tucker and Grant counties in the northeast part of the state. The concept of high-speed travel includes the use of enclosed pods to take passengers underground at speeds of more than 600 mph through electromagnetic levitation transportation. The technology allows for silent and fast travel. A trip from New York to Washington would take around 30 minutes, Reuters reported. Virgin is studying a route from Chicago to Pittsburgh in under an hour. The endeavor is expected to bring thousands of temporary construction jobs to West Virginia, which has seen an economic decline amid a downturn in the coal industry. The facility will employ up to 200 workers once completed.”

Flag on the play? - Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.

SCOREBOARD
NATIONAL HEAD-TO-HEAD AVERAGE
Trump: 41.8 percent    
Biden: 52.4 percent    
Size of lead: Biden by 10.6 points    
Change from one week ago: Biden ↑ 1.2 points, Trump ↓ 1.2 points
[Average includes: Fox News: Trump 43% - Biden 53%; CNN: Trump 41% - Biden 57%; NBC News/WSJ: Trump 39% - Biden 53%; Monmouth University: Trump 45% - Biden 50%; NYT/Siena College: Trump 41% - Biden 49%.]

BATTLEGROUND POWER RANKINGS
(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up: (109 electoral votes): Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6)
Lean R/Likely R: (180 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D: (249 electoral votes)
[Full rankings here.]

TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average approval: 44 percent
Average disapproval: 53.8 percent
Net Score: -9.8 points
Change from one week ago: ↓ 1.2 points
[Average includes: Fox News: 47% approve - 52% disapprove; CNN: 40% approve - 57% disapprove; NBC News/WSJ: 43% approve - 55% disapprove; NYT/Siena College: 46% approve - 50% disapprove; ABC News/WaPo: 44% approve - 55% disapprove.]

GOT A WILD PITCH? READY TO THROW A FASTBALL?
We’ve brought “From the Bleachers” to video on demand thanks to Fox Nation. Each Wednesday and Friday, Producer Brianna McClelland will put Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt to the test with your questions on everything about politics, government and American history – plus whatever else is on your mind. Sign up for the Fox Nation streaming service here and send your best questions to HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM.

I’LL TELL YOU WHAT: BLATHERSKITE
This week, Dana Perino and Chris Stirewalt record their second podcast of the week as they brave the country's deluge of political news. They discuss how President Trump's response to having COVID-19, boycotting a virtual debate, and management of stimulus talks have affected his performance in the polls. They also discuss the impact of the vice-presidential debate (or lack thereof), and the Senate races that are still in play for the Republicans. Plus, Chris endeavors to answer approval rating trivia. LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE HERE

TRUMP NUDGES TOWARD $2 TRILLION STIMULUS OFFER
NYT: “The White House is preparing a $1.8 trillion coronavirus stimulus proposal for Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, to present to congressional Democrats, putting forward its largest offer for pandemic relief just days after President Trump abruptly halted negotiations until after the election. The president ‘would like to do a deal,’ Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, said on the Fox Business Network on Friday, in the latest head-snapping turn in the on-again-off-again negotiations. … Fanning the sense of optimism, Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter: ‘Covid Relief Negotiations are moving along. Go Big!’ The prospects of a compromise remained remote, however, given the opposition of many Republicans to another large infusion of federal virus aid.”

McConnell pours old water - Politico: “Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) suggested Friday that Congress is ‘unlikely’ to reach an agreement on a coronavirus rescue package before the Nov. 3 election, amid confusion and weeks of stalled negotiations. During remarks at an event in Kentucky, McConnell reiterated that the upcoming election will only make it more difficult for Democrats, Republicans and the White House to find common ground on a package … ‘The situation is kind of murky and I think the murkiness is a result of the proximity to the election and everybody kind of trying to elbow for political advantage,’ McConnell said. ‘I’d like to see us rise above that like we did back in March and April but I think that’s unlikely in the next three weeks.’”

Has avoided White House for months because of corona laxity - Reuters: “U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, one of President Donald Trump’s most powerful allies in Washington, has avoided visiting the White House for more than two months because of its handling of the coronavirus, he told reporters on Thursday. The top Republican in Congress relies instead on phone conversations to discuss important issues such as COVID-19 economic stimulus legislation and Supreme Court moves with Trump, he told a news conference in Kentucky, his home state. ‘I actually haven’t been to the White House since Aug. 6, because my impression was their approach to how to handle this was different from mine and what I insisted that we do in the Senate, which is to wear a mask and practice social distancing,’ the 78-year-old lawmaker said.”

Pelosi talks up bill to streamline presidential removal - Fox News: “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Friday announced legislation to create a commission that would allow Congress to oust a president from office, using the 25th Amendment, a day after she accused President Trump of being ‘in an altered state’ from his coronavirus treatment. ‘This is not about President Trump,’ Pelosi maintained Friday. ‘He will face the judgment of the voters. But he shows the need for us to create a process for future presidents.’ Pelosi denied that the timing of the legislation had anything to do with the election and argued that setting up a commission on presidential capacity is needed to ‘give some comfort to people’ on the stability of the government. Trump immediately shot back and said Pelosi's effort is really to remove a future President Joe Biden. ‘Crazy Nancy Pelosi is looking at the 25th Amendment in order to replace Joe Biden with Kamala Harris,’ Trump tweeted. ‘The Dems want that to happen fast because Sleepy Joe is out of it!!!’”

TRUMP FUMES OVER NEWS THAT ‘OBAMAGATE’ PROBE WILL WAIT
Fox News: “President Trump on Friday expressed outrage at reports Attorney General William Barr has communicated to lawmakers that the Durham report will not be released until after the presidential election. ‘I don't know that he made that statement, I would be very disappointed in him,’ Trump said on ‘The Rush Limbaugh Show.’ U.S. Attorney John Durham is investigating the Department of Justice's (DOJ) handling of the investigation into Russian interference with the 2016 election and potential collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Axios reported Friday that Barr was telling top Republican lawmakers that the Durham review was not going to be completed before the election and that Durham is aiming to win prosecutions. ‘I will be very disappointed if that Axios piece that you read to me is true’ Trump added. ‘Because they've had plenty of time to get this done. ‘”

Ready to deploy tens of thousands of supporters to polling places - Politico: “With the lifting of a decades-old consent decree, the Republican National Committee is now free to engage in poll watching. To that end, the campaign has established what it says is a 50,000-plus army of volunteer observers across an array of battleground states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where operations are already underway. Poll watchers monitor everything from voting machines to the processing of ballots to checking voter identification. They are not permitted to interact directly with voters but, depending on local regulations, they can relay problems to local election officials or campaign higher-ups.”

Imagining a contested election in an era of acidic partisanship - FiveThirtyEight: “It’s Wednesday, Nov. 4, and the vote count is too close to call. Neither President Trump nor former Vice President Joe Biden is conceding defeat, recounts are being conducted, disputes over recounts are being lodged, and a court case will soon be making its way to the Supreme Court of the United States. … This is the nightmare scenario for 2020, one in which a disputed election drives the country further apart. It’s also one that’s vaguely familiar. In 2000, there was no clear winner in the contest between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush. … Yet even in the direct aftermath of Bush v. Gore, Americans still kept the faith in democratic institutions and the process. … It’s difficult to imagine similar sentiments in December 2020 if the Supreme Court intervened. Already, Americans say they are worried about something going wrong. … Journalists’ recitation of engrained partisanship is now somewhat rote, but the scale of our almost-religious alienation from one another is sort of breathtaking; we were not this divided a nation in 2000.”

ARIZONA HIGHLIGHTS BIDEN’S SUN BELT OPPORTUNITIES
NYT: “Cindy Bishop is the sort of [Arizona] voter who has some Republicans bracing for a wipeout next month. …[Bishop] voted for Mr. Trump four years ago because ‘he wasn’t a politician.’ … She is now leaning toward Joseph R. Biden Jr. The inflammatory behavior that has alienated voters beyond his base has long posed the most significant impediment to Mr. Trump’s re-election. … New polls show Mr. Trump’s support is collapsing nationally, as he alienates women, seniors and suburbanites. He is trailing not just in must-win battlegrounds but according to private G.O.P. surveys, he is repelling independents to the point where Mr. Biden has drawn closer in solidly red states, including Montana, Kansas and Missouri, people briefed on the data said. Nowhere has Mr. Trump harmed himself and his party more than across the Sun Belt, where the electoral coalition that secured a generation of Republican dominance is in danger of coming apart.”

Biden adamantly refuses to answer on court packing - Fox News: “Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is remaining silent on whether he supports a move by many progressives to expand the number of justices on the Supreme Court if the Democrats win back the White House and take control of the Senate in November’s elections. Asked Thursday by reporters if he supports such a move, Biden once again refused to answer, saying ‘you’ll know my position on court-packing the day after the election.’ The former vice president once again described the question as a distraction to what he termed the main issue – the push by President Trump and the Republican majority in the Senate to quickly move before Election Day to confirm Amy Coney Barrett, a conservative federal appeals court judge nominated by Trump to succeed liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. ‘The moment I answer that question, the headline in every one of your papers will be about that rather than focusing on what’s happening now. This election has begun. There’s never been a court appointment once the election has begun,’ the former vice president emphasized.”

Dead heat in Georgia - WSJ: “The presidential race in Georgia is a statistical tie, with President Donald Trump at 47% and Democratic challenger Joe Biden at 46% in a new poll from the University of Georgia. … The findings are consistent with other polls showing a dead heat in the Georgia presidential contest and showed almost no change from a mid-September UGA poll. The poll was taken during a tumultuous period for the race that included last week’s debate and Trump’s hospitalization and discharge. Few voters remain unconvinced: just 3% say they are undecided in the race, while another 3% back the Libertarian candidate. The Trump campaign spent nearly $13 million on TV ads in Georgia between June and the end of September, according to data from political ad tracker Kantar/CMAG. But as of Thursday, it had pulled down its TV ads there and hadn’t reserved additional time ahead of Election Day. The Biden campaign this week started a $4 million TV ad buy in the state that is slated to run through Nov. 3, the data show.”

Granite State poll shows swing voters bolting for Biden - Saint Anselm College Poll: “The October poll by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) shows momentum for Joe Biden with a double digit lead, and the first volatility in the presidential race. Biden now preferred by New Hampshire likely voters over Trump by a 12-point margin at 53%-41%; Biden’s increased lead has come from swing voters, who have gone from supporting Trump 43-31 to supporting him 44-24 since August… New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, ‘This is the first significant movement we’re seen in the presidential race so far.’ … This poll was conducted shortly after the presidential debate and while the news of Trump’s COVID diagnosis was breaking. However, neither of these events seems to have damaged Trump politically: his image and job approval have remained steady throughout the year in the low 40’s.”

GOP GRABS SEXTING SCANDAL LIFELINE IN BID TO SAVE SENATE
National Journal: “As the outlook for Republicans in North Carolina’s Senate race was looking bleak, they were thrown a lifeline late last week and are going all in on a new messaging strategy. … Over the past seven days, both candidates have been quarantining because Sen. Thom Tillis tested positive for the coronavirus a day after he and [Cal] Cunningham met for a debate, the same day that Cunningham confirmed reports of his infidelity. However, Tillis has been far more visible over that time, leaning heavily into the messaging opportunity that Cunningham’s transgression provided. Immediately after news broke about the infidelity, Republicans set out to amplify the story both on earned and paid messaging while Cunningham laid low. … Early this week, the Senate Leadership Fund, an outside group aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, allocated $4 million of its money set aside for North Carolina to support a TV ad highlighting local news reports about the extramarital texting. … On Thursday, Tillis’s own campaign joined the paid media fray with a statewide ad campaign covering TV, radio, and digital.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
Health officials scramble to create Trump’s drug cards by Election Day - Politico

AUDIBLE: SHAWSHANK ON THE POTOMAC
“This is how a lot of Republican political professionals sound to me: ready for a jailbreak and afraid to dig a tunnel. They don’t know where the floor is soft, which direction gets them outside the walls.”– Peggy Noonan in her WSJ opinion piece.

ANY GIVEN SUNDAY
Tune in this weekend as Mr. Sunday sits down with Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., and Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del. Watch “Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.” Check local listings for broadcast times in your area.

#mediabuzz - Host Howard Kurtz has the latest take on the week’s media coverage. Watch #mediabuzz Sundays at 11 a.m. ET.

FROM THE BLEACHERS
“I feel [Thursday’s lede ‘Trump ducks debate, a dire sign from an incumbent’] is neither an honest assessment nor accurate portrayal of events. You only need to read Fox’s own stories to see he in NOT ducking the debate. He is refusing to do a last minute change and do a ‘lame’ virtual debate. This plays beautifully into Biden’s hands where he can have the help possible off camera. It’s not an honest format. I believe you owe your readers an apology.” – Nemo Niemann, Elliottsburg, Pa.

[Ed. note: You know what really plays into Biden’s hands, Mr. Niemann? Trump skipping the debate. It’s hard to imagine how it could have played out better for Biden. If the former vice president could have it his way, there wouldn’t be any more debates at all. He’s sitting on a massive lead and only got through the first debate as well as he did because Trump interrupted him so much. Freestyle exchanges are not his strong suit, to say the least. As far as the argument that Biden would cheat, I say poppycock. To do a remote debate you would have to have controls in place to make sure both sides followed the rules and were similarly situated. That could have all been subject to negotiation, but the world will never know because Trump bolted immediately. He’s free not to participate, but it is hardly a sign of strength. I understand that the president and many of his supporters believe he is being treated very unfairly, but Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush felt the same way when they did what Trump is doing now. But the candidate who is losing has the least leverage in matters such as these.]

Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.

AT LEAST HE HAD HIS PHONE WHILE HE WAITED
Tampa Bay Times: “A teen got stuck in a storm drain in Pasco County Wednesday afternoon after dropping their cell phone. Firefighters said they were called to the scene on Pemberton Drive in New Port Richey for a ‘technical rescue.’ The teen had dropped their cell phone into a storm drain while walking home from the bus stop, then removed a manhole cover, climbed in and got stuck, fire officials said. Firefighters arrived and helped the teen out of the drain. The teen was stuck for about an hour. No one was injured, Pasco County Fire Rescue said. ‘Firefighters were able to extricate the teen from the storm drain, cleaned them off, checked the drain for hazardous gasses, and turned the teen over to their parents,’ fire officials said in a Facebook post. ‘We are thankful there were no injuries.’”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“We need not look far back into history to understand the importance of our Constitution and our reverence for it. Today, Americans are in the midst of a great national debate over the power, scope, and reach of the government that was established by that document.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) in an essay on constitutional conservatism, adapted from Krauthammer’s posthumous book, The Point of It All, published in the National Review Jan. 10, 2019.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.