Rove breaks down Trump's 'path to victory' through Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

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Polls show Trump-Biden race tightening in key battleground states

Fox News contributor and former Deputy White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove joins 'The Story' with insight.

The fate of President Trump's reelection bid will ultimately come down to the three battleground states that put him over the top in 2016: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove predicted Monday. 

"I know from polls that I'm looking at in Arizona, private polls in Arizona [and] North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, that the numbers are tightening," Rove told  "The Story."

"Think about it this way, if the president wins every state -- let's take the three Great Lakes states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin [and] put them to the side for a second. If the president wins any one of the rest of the states he won in 2016 and carries Pennsylvania, he's got 280 electoral votes, ten more than needed," Rove said.

"If he carries Wisconsin out of those three states, only Wisconsin, he's got 270," he explained. "If he carries Michigan out of those three states and loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he's got 276, so the path to victory lies in these states."

FOX NEWS POLL: TRUMP GAINS IN OHIO, BIDEN AHEAD IN MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN, AND PENNSYLVANIA 

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Recent polling shows Biden leading Trump by 10 points in Michigan (52-42 percent), 8 points in Pennsylvania (52-44 percent), and 9 points in Wisconsin (53-44 percent).  Biden’s advantage was believed to be outside the margin of error in Michigan, but polls suggest the gap could narrow significantly as Election Day draws near.  Trump won all three states by fewer than one percentage point in 2016. 

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If Trump does indeed carry Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, "he just needs one more of these states," Rove emphasized.

"The most dangerous one is Wisconsin, though, because if he's at 270. If he loses either [the 2nd congressional district in] Maine or Nebraska, we've either got a tie in the Electoral College -- or he’s down by 2 if he loses both of them."