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Fox News: Democracy 2020 Election Day

Follow the latest race results, candidates and events leading up to the 2020 presidential election on Fox News.

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On the roster: Hail, Weirdos! - What to expect when we’re projecting - Strapped down, shaken out and ready to ride 

HAIL, WEIRDOS!
The old adage goes like this: If you pray for patience, God will give you opportunities to practice waiting patiently. If you pray for restraint, God will give you opportunities to practice acting in a restrained way, etc. 

We offer no judgment on the theology of such sentiments, but they come to mind readily as we contemplate what may be the highest turnout election in the modern era. 

For years, we have heard the lamentations about the low level of voter engagement in U.S. elections. Well, they’re sure as shooting engaged now – and yet few are greeting this tidal wave of expected turnout with glad tidings. And that’s too bad. 

We should point out that we do not place any moral value on turnout in this note. Like the song goes: “If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.” Increased democratic participation does not correlate with good governance. Brazil and Russia out-vote the U.S. on a per capita basis every time, and they remain, well, Brazil and Russia. 

This is different, of course, than instances in America when voters want to participate but are thwarted by incompetent administration or attempted disenfranchisement etc. States should be at least as good at collecting your vote as they are in collecting your taxes. But apathetic acceptance of the status quo is not immoral. Vote, don’t vote – knock yourselves out. 

But for those who have agonized over low voter turnout – an average of about 54 percent of eligible voters in the five presidential elections this century – their prayers are being answered. 

We are on track this year to cross the 60-percent threshold for the first time since 1968 and the start of the Voting Rights Act era. Nearly 100 million Americans have already returned their early or absentee ballots, with more coming in every moment. If Election Day projections hold true, we should end up with more than 150 million total ballots cast out of a vote-eligible population of about 257 million adults. 

And why is that? Because times are troubled. The two lowest-turnout elections of the modern era, 1988 and 2000, were held during periods of peace and prosperity. The two highest-turnout years, 1968 and 2008, took place amid periods of panic and anxiety. 

This is related to a story we mentioned to you some time ago. In September, the annual Constitution Day survey from the Annenberg Public Policy Center found a huge surge in Americans’ civics knowledge. 

We are members of that small but noisy chorus always demanding more civics and American history education in schools (and for adults), but what it really took to get folks to pay attention were crisis conditions – an impeachment and a pandemic. 

We shouldn’t all have to vote like our lives depended on it every two years, nor should Americans have to hover over the functions of the federal government like a pot about to boil over. But when trouble comes, Americans respond. 

And this is why we have made our mantra this year “Believe in America.” 

Unlike the citizens of so many less-fortunate nations, we have someplace to turn when things get choppy: The Constitution and the ballot box. Time and time again, when looking for a way out of a jam, we have ultimately returned to the wisdom of our founding. Our long-ago departure from the norms of millennia of human history continues to serve us well. 

As Hunter Thompson wrote, “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” 

Well, in this very weird year, Americans are acting like the pros we are.

THE RULEBOOK: BE EXCELLENT TO EACH OTHER
“The most plausible of these, who has appeared in print, has even deigned to admit that the election of the President is pretty well guarded. I venture somewhat further, and hesitate not to affirm, that if the manner of it be not perfect, it is at least excellent. It unites in an eminent degree all the advantages, the union of which was to be wished for.” – Alexander Hamilton, writing about the mode of electing the president, Federalist No. 68

SCOREBOARD
BATTLEGROUND POWER RANKINGS
(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up: (115 electoral votes): Georgia (16) Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6)
Lean R/Likely R: (164 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D: (259 electoral votes)

*WATCH FOX: Special coverage begins tonight at 6 pm ET with the latest results, best analysis and regular updates from the Decision Desk.*

WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN WE’RE PROJECTING
Because there are going to be so many more votes cast than in 2016 and so many more of them will be cast by mail, it is making the counting quite challenging for state and local officials. 

And while that has implications for our ability to project winners and losers on the Fox News Decision Desk, it doesn’t mean that we won’t be able to make calls – and lots of them. 

Gone are the days of exit polls. We now rely on the Fox News Voter Analysis. You can read more about our methods and track results as polls close here and get an overview of our offerings, including probability meters, here. But as those who recall our coverage in 2018 already know, we have found a way to get past the longstanding failures of old-fashioned exit polls. 

Keep an eye on those probability meters, because unlike the raw vote totals that may be dominated by early votes or Election Day votes or votes from one part of a state, the meters will reflect the results in the context of the total expected results.  

The massive turnout and the potentially large number of first-time and infrequent voters have introduced some uncertainty into forecasters’ models. But once we start seeing how voters are really behaving, things should firm up quickly giving us a good sense of which states are strongly leaning one way or another and which states are going to be very close. 

There are tons of election-night watching guides out there (we like this one from FiveThirtyEight among others), but we’re not going to get nitty-gritty on when you should expect what. As we laid out Monday, there are vast differences between potential outcomes, which create corresponding gaps between when we might call various races. 

If President Trump is going to pull an even bigger bunny out of his hat than he did four years ago, we may not be able to call the presidency for days. If Joe Biden is headed for a decisive win, it may be a relatively early night. 

But if you’re the kind of person who likes to keep score at the baseball game, you’ll find below the line-up for this evening so you can follow along. 

A good rule of thumb is that any contested state south of the Mason-Dixon Line that comes in for the Democrats is seriously bad news for Republicans. Any contested state north of the line that comes in for the GOP is bad news for the Dems. 

Otherwise, have fun and don’t let yourself get too worked up about the results. It’s just an election. We’ll have another one in two years. 

[Ed. note: Credit to my dear friend and “Nerd Number One” Arnon Mishkin for the headline on this item. It was too good not to steal!] 

*7 O’CLOCK POLL CLOSINGS - 60 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Toss Ups - 16 electoral votes
Georgia (16)

Likely Democratic - 16 electoral votes 
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)

Likely Republican - 28 electoral votes
Indiana (11)
Kentucky (8)
South Carolina (9)

COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES  
Lean Republican
Georgia
Georgia (special)
South Carolina

*7:30 POLL CLOSINGS - 38 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Toss Ups - 33 electoral votes
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)

Likely Republican - 5 electoral votes
West Virginia (5)

COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES
Toss Ups
North Carolina

*8 O’CLOCK POLL CLOSINGS - 172 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Toss Ups - 49 electoral votes
Florida (29)
Pennsylvania (20)

Lean Democratic - 4 electoral votes
New Hampshire (4)

Likely Democratic - 76 electoral votes
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Illinois (20)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New Jersey (14)
Rhode Island (4)
Washington, D.C. (3)

Likely Republican - 43 electoral votes
Alabama (9)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Oklahoma (7)
Tennessee (11)

COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES
Toss Ups
Maine

*8:30 POLL CLOSINGS - 6 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Likely Republican - 6 electoral votes
Arkansas (6)

*9 O’CLOCK POLL CLOSINGS - 156 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Toss Ups - 11 electoral votes
Arizona (11)

Lean Democratic - 26 electoral votes
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)

Lean Republican - 38 electoral votes
Texas (38)

Likely Democratic - 53 electoral votes
Colorado (9)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)

Likely Republican - 28 electoral votes
Kansas (6)
Louisiana (8)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Wyoming (3)

COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES
Lean Democratic
Arizona
Colorado
Michigan

*10 O’CLOCK POLL CLOSINGS - 21 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Toss Ups - 6 electoral votes
Iowa (6)

Lean Democratic - 6 electoral votes
Nevada (6)

Likely Republican - 9 electoral votes
Montana (3)
Utah (6)

COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES
Toss Ups
Iowa

Lean Republican
Montana

*11 O’CLOCK POLL CLOSINGS - 78 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Likely Democratic - 74 electoral votes
California (55)
Oregon (7)
Washington (12)

Likely Republican - 4 electoral votes
Idaho (4)

*12 O’CLOCK (AM) POLL CLOSINGS - 4 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Likely Democratic - 4 electoral votes
Hawaii (4)

*1 O’CLOCK (AM) POLL CLOSINGS - 3 ELECTORAL VOTES*
PRESIDENTIAL
Alaska (3)

COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES
Lean Republican
Alaska

STRAPPED DOWN, SHAKEN OUT AND READY TO RIDE 
AP: “The Wisconsin State Patrol had a little advice for a guy who transported a snowmobile by strapping it to the roof of his Toyota Corolla: Bad idea. A trooper pulled over the driver on Highway 63 in northwestern Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon after seeing the snowmobile perched sideways on top of the sedan. The Wisconsin Department of Transportation tweeted a photo of the car with the Polaris topper on Monday with a message: ‘Folks, don’t try this at home.’ The 23-year-old driver was issued a warning about the hauling technique and cited for failing to buckle up, according to DOT spokeswoman Christena O’Brien. The driver, Matthew Schmit, of Clayton, told the trooper he had just bought the snowmobile and was driving it over to a friend’s house to show him, the Star Tribune reported. ‘I know it looks sketchy, but we had it strapped down and shook it,’ he said. ‘Up like in this kind of region, stuff like this gets seen all the time, but more like the back roads.’”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“The only question is whose name I’m going to write in. With Albert Schweitzer doubly unavailable (noncitizen, dead), I’m down to Paul Ryan or Ben Sasse.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) in the Washington Post on Oct. 20, 2016.

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.