Republicans maintain advantage in generic midterm ballot

FILE - In this Nov. 2, 2020, file photo sunlight shines on the U.S. Capitol building on Capitol Hill in Washington. President-elect Joe Biden wants to "restore the soul of America." First, he'll need to fix a broken and divided Congress. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File) (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

In an early snapshot of the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans maintain a narrow advantage over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot -- as voters say they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, according to the latest Fox News survey of registered voters.

If the election for Congress were today, 49% would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, while 45% would go for the Democrat.  This is the third straight month when the GOP has had the advantage: Republicans held a 1-point edge last month (44% vs. 43%) and were up by 4 points in December (43% vs. 39%).

This is a noticeable shift from four years ago when Democrats held at least a 5-point margin in the generic vote throughout 2018.

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"The Republican edge is based on narrow but consistent advantages," says Republican Daron Shaw who conducts the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "The Republicans are a tad more likely to back their party’s candidate, while independents give the nod to the GOP by three points."

Don’t expect major political players to sway voters.  When asked about endorsements, 45% say they are less likely to vote for a candidate backed by Biden (24% more likely), while 42% say the same about Trump (29% more likely).  

Independents are either turned off by Biden (39% less likely) or Trump endorsements (41% less likely) or say their backing won’t matter (48% and 42% respectively).

Fifty-eight percent of Trump voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate he endorsed while 50% of Biden voters would be more likely to do the same for him.

Only 5% of voters are "enthusiastic" about how the government is working and another 27% are "satisfied."  A majority is "dissatisfied" (40%) or "angry" (27%) with Washington.  

That explains the dismal approval ratings for Congress, as well as its leaders.

Almost 7 in 10 (69%) voters disapprove of Congress’ job performance, the highest since early 2018.  Just a quarter (26%) approve.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi garners a 34% favorable (vs. 61% unfavorable).  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell fares worse, with just 24% viewing him favorably (62% negative).

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Views of Trump (45% percent favorable) and Biden (43%) are more positive than congressional leaders in the eyes of voters.

What’s more, Trump (82%) is notably more popular among Republicans than McConnell (32%).  

And while Biden (83% favorable) is more beloved among Democrats than Pelosi (69%), the gap is much narrower.

The national survey also asked about views of Hillary Clinton.

Her favorable rating reached a low in the new poll: 35% view her favorably, down from 41% in June 2020 and from a high of 63% in August 2012.

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Compared to a decade ago, favorable views of Clinton dropped across the board:  independents (down 38 points), Republicans (-30), women (-30), White voters (-29), men (-26), Black voters (-18), and Democrats (-17) all view her more negatively now.

Overall, 64% view her unfavorably today.

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Conducted Feb. 19-22, 2022 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,001 registered voters nationwide who were randomly selected from a national voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.