Fox News Poll Methodology Statement

Fox News Poll Methodology Statement

Updated February 2024

Conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), Fox News national surveys include interviews with a representative sample of approximately 1,200 registered voters. About 75% of completed interviews are with respondents on the telephone (roughly 15% on landlines and 85% cellphones) and the remainder are with respondents contacted by text message who then complete the survey online. 

Sampling

All respondents are randomly selected from a national registered voter list sourced from Aristotle. The survey employs a probability proportionate to size method, which means the number of respondents included in the sample from each state is proportional to the number of voters in each state.

The poll uses a dual-frame sample design encompassing landlines and cellphones. Sample for the cellphone frame is randomly selected from the full universe of voters with cellphones included in the voter file; sample for the landline frame is randomly selected from the full universe of voters with landlines numbers. The lists are de-duped, so no voters are included twice.

A random subset of the cellphone sample receives a text message invitation to complete the survey online.  Individuals who complete the survey online after receiving the text invitation are then removed from the cellphone sample.

All respondents are screened to ensure they are registered to vote. For Fox News surveys conducted in the weeks before an election, interviewers sometimes screen for "likely voters" through a series of questions about past voting behavior, vote likelihood, and/or interest in the current election.

Quotas are applied to ensure the sample is representative of the electorate. Specifically, gender (53% female, 47% male) and regional quotas are employed.

Telephone Interviewing

Trained professional interviewers conduct all interviews for Fox News surveys, using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system. Both human supervisors and quality control software are used to monitor each step of the interviewing process.

Dialing is structured such that prospective respondents always find a live interviewer when they answer their phone.  

On average, six calls are placed to each unanswered number during the field period, which is typically four days for national surveys and five days for state surveys. 

Cellphone respondents are screened to ensure they are not driving or participating in an activity that requires their full attention.

Text-to-Web Interviewing

Text messages are sent to randomly selected cellphone numbers with a unique, one-time-use link inviting the respondent to complete the survey online.  The message includes an opt-out option. 

Weighting

When necessary, minor weights are used to ensure the demographics of survey respondents are representative of the national registered voter population. All sample frames are weighted together. Generally, weights are applied to age, race, education, and area variables. The Fox News poll is not weighted by party identification.

Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, AP VoteCast/Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.

Accuracy

For a sample of about 1,200 interviews, the error due to sampling is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.  For example, when the survey says "47% of voters…" then the probability is very high that no less than 44% and no more than 50% of all voters would have responded the same way. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. 

In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results.