Pacific Northwest could decide which party controls the House

Washington and Oregon voters find themselves in an unusual position in the deeply blue states: they could play a pivotal role in determining Republican control of the House, placing these traditionally predictable states under the spotlight.  

As usual, voter turnout will be the deciding factor. But it’s low Democratic enthusiasm, partially driven by the unpopularity of Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, and backlash against Democratic support of Israel could potentially swing two seats to Republicans and help the party hold onto a third in these competitive districts. 

Another upset in OR-5? 

Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s reelection campaign in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District is one of the most closely watched races this cycle, thanks to the district’s unique political landscape.  

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In 2022, Chavez-DeRemer won the seat by just two points over her far-left challenger, flipping it from blue to red, thanks to her appeal to rural voters in places like Marion and Linn counties, even as she lost in more liberal areas like Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The district remains a toss-up, with more than 40% of voters identifying as independents or unaffiliated. 

Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is in a close congressional race with Democrat Janelle Bynum, a state representative. FILE: Chavez-DeRemer, a Republican from Oregon, speaks during a news conference in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2023. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Chavez-DeRemer has focused on local issues like crime, inflation and homelessness, positioning herself as a pragmatic, bipartisan voice. But the challenge this time is steeper. Democrat Janelle Bynum, a state representative, has significant name recognition and support from key Democratic leaders who see this seat as critical for their path to regaining control of the House.  

Plus, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent big on attack ads to brand Chavez-DeRemer as a partisan, MAGA extremist. They’re even funding activists from San Francisco to doorbell for Bynum. 

Bynum has historically performed well among independents when running for the state legislature. Chavez-DeRemer’s strong fundraising advantage might allow her to out-communicate Bynum, but she’s navigating a district that is trending more purple, and perhaps even blue, as the national political climate continues to polarize voters.  

But the district is shifting demographically. As younger, more liberal voters move into Clackamas County, it is becoming harder for Republicans to maintain their foothold in a district that includes part of far-left Portland.  

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Is the second time a charm for Joe Kent? 

Republican Joe Kent is again challenging Democrat incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, a rematch that is shaping up to be one of the most competitive House races of 2024. The district, which includes Vancouver, Battle Ground, and Kelso, has a history of supporting Republicans, but Gluesenkamp Perez flipped the seat in 2022, defeating Kent by less than 1% of the vote.  

Kent, a former Green Beret, Gold Star husband and Trump-endorsed candidate, was hindered by Republican infighting during that race after defeating moderate incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the primary, and, at the time, former President Donald Trump was a drag on Republicans statewide. 

This time around, Kent has refined his campaign strategy, focusing less on controversial issues like election integrity and abortion, and more on economic concerns, the fentanyl crisis, immigration, and local infrastructure needs like replacing the aging I-5 bridge. He has also learned from previous mistakes, emphasizing early voting and outreach to a broader voter base. 

Rep.-elect Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., reacts after drawing her number in the House new member room lottery in the Cannon House Office Building on Friday, December 2, 2022. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Gluesenkamp Perez, for her part, is running as a moderate, presenting herself as willing to buck her party for the good of the district. She has taken high-profile votes against President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan and supported more bipartisan issues like infrastructure and agricultural policies that benefit rural communities.  

But Kent argues that the incumbent is far more aligned with the Biden administration than her voting record suggests. He points to her support for transgender females to share locker rooms and sports leagues with biological girls and to her vote against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.  

In turn, Glusenkamp Perez claims Kent is an extremist who will support a nationwide abortion ban (a position Kent says he doesn’t hold). Both candidates are locked in a dead heat according to recent polls, with voters split nearly evenly. 

Is an upset coming in WA-08? 

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There’s always a surprise House result or two: Former New York Republican Rep. George Santos in 2022, Florida Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in 2020, and New York Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2018. Could the next sleeper race be in Washington? 

On paper, Democrat Rep. Kim Schrier is a safe bet for reelection in Washington's 8th Congressional District, but beneath the surface, the race against Republican Carmen Goers may be heating up.  

Schrier, a pediatrician, is running for her fourth term in a district that spans parts of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties and extends into more rural areas like Ellensburg and Wenatchee. The very large district’s political makeup has become more diverse, with urban and suburban voters balancing out the more conservative rural areas.  

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Goers, a commercial banker, positioned herself as a fresh face for the district. Her campaign is focusing on crime and inflation, two issues she says hit everyone in the district hard. She also criticized Schrier’s voting record, painting her as a Seattle-style progressive who supports a natural gas energy ban and opposes efforts to check citizenship status of voters.  

Janelle Bynum is a Democrat running for Congress in Oregon against Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer. (Janelle Bynum for Congress)

In return, Schrier has all but ignored Goers and hasn’t run a very active re-election campaign, raising millions less than she did in 2022. 

Schrier is acting like she has this in the bag. But working against her are four voter-backed initiatives, backlash against Democrat support for Israel and apathy around Harris. 

Washington voters put four issues on the November ballot, all repealing major Democratic legislative wins. They would end the capital gains tax, Climate Commitment Act (which added roughly $0.50 per gallon of gas), a government-run long-term care insurance mandate, and the first steps to banning natural gas in the state. These are expected to drive up voter participation. 

Bynum has historically performed well among independents when running for the state legislature. Chavez-DeRemer’s strong fundraising advantage might allow her to out-communicate Bynum, but she’s navigating a district that is trending more purple, and perhaps even blue, as the national political climate continues to polarize voters.  

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Schrier, a supporter of Israel, also faced a primary challenge by Imraan Siddiqi, president of the Washington Chapter of the Council on Islamic-American Relations (CAIR). Though he picked up just a little over 3% of the vote, Scrier barely made it to 50%. The district has both a large Muslim population and politically active younger voters, thanks to Central Washington University. Both groups may snub Schrier (or Harris) because of anger over support for Israel. 

In the primary, Goers outperformed in five of the district’s six counties and came close to 40% in King County, that magic number Republicans generally need to overcome the Democrats voter advantage. It won’t be easy by any stretch, but apathy towards Harris, and more enthusiasm in the rural areas for Trump, could give Goers the boost she needs to flip the district against an opponent who is barely running a re-election campaign.

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