CNN data guru declares Trump will win White House if he outperforms current polling by one point

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said that the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so close that if Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will win the White House.

"We‘re talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world," Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Friday.

The reporter began by stating that no presidential race has been this close in 60 years. According to national polling averages taken from 1964 to 2020, each election featured at least a three-week period where one candidate was polling five points better than the other.

FOX NEWS POLL: NEW MATCHUP, SAME RESULT — TRUMP BESTS HARRIS BY ONE POINT

CNN's Harry Enten discusses how close the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris less than two months before the election.  (Screenshot/CNN)

So far in this campaign, that three-week lead has yet to materialize. 

"How many days have we had this campaign, where one candidate was ahead by at least five points nationally? Look at this. Zero days, zero days. The fact is, this race has been consistently tight in a way that we have never seen before, Mr. Berman," Enten said. 

The reporter delved into how close the race is in the battleground states. According to the network's aggregate polling, Harris is currently ahead of Trump by only an average of six-tenths of a point, which is closer than the final nine-tenths of a point lead President Biden had over Trump among those states in the last election.

"My goodness gracious, that is how tight we are talking right now across these seven battleground states. It is a race, Mr. Berman, that is well within the margin of error when you look across these seven key battleground states that will determine this election," he said.

Enten continued, detailing how if the November election results perfectly matched today’s polling, "Kamala Harris would win this election with 292 electoral votes to Donald Trump‘s 246."

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CNN's Harry Enten said that the race between Former President Trump and Vice President Harris is the closest in a generation.   (Getty Images)

However, when Enten simulated what would happen if Trump outperformed current polling by "one percentage point," it revealed the former president winning. 

"Look at this. If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and – look at this – Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes," he said, comparing it to Harris’ 251 votes in this scenario.

"John, this is a truly exciting race right now, where any slight movement can make all the difference," he concluded.

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Journalist Mark Halperin noted last week that the closeness of the election is not a good sign for the Harris campaign. He said that Harris’ lead over Trump in swing states is "well within the margin of error" and it’s not conclusive that she is actually ahead.

Halperin added the numbers are a "scary place" for Harris to be in just a couple of months ahead of the November election, especially if Trump gains momentum. 

He even predicted that "by the middle of September" Trump could be "ahead in all the Sun Belt states."