Major cruise lines suspend operations once again: When will cruising realistically resume?

An analyst with UBS Leisure weighs in

Following the voluntary cancelation of sailings by major cruise lines around the world through the end of 2020, travelers are left wondering when they’ll be able to sail again.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Conditional Sail Order issued last week calls for cruise lines to submit all of the necessary documentation at least 60 days before being approved to resume passenger operations.

As a result, cruise lines won’t be able to launch passenger service until at least early January.

UBS Leisure Analyst Robin Farley and Truist Securities Managing Director Patrick Scholes both told Travel Weekly the timeline for cruise lines to meet the CDC requirements would likely push any revenue cruises to February.

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“Bottom line is that cruise lines will not be able to offer passenger cruises in December, but January seems possible, though February more likely, in line with what the CDC was reportedly already targeting,” Farley told Travel Weekly.

The Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) announced its members would extend the voluntary suspension of cruise operations in the U.S. through December 31.

CLIA’s decision comes after cruise lines such as Norwegian, Royal Caribbean and Carnival all separately announced the suspension of voyages for the remainder of the year.

The Conditional Sail Order includes an extensive list of requirements cruise lines must meet before being allowed to sail again, including each ship being required to apply for a Conditional Sailing Certificate to operate in U.S. waters.

Major cruise lines have voluntarily suspended U.S. activity through Dec. 31, but it might be a bit longer until cruises can actually resume. (Jeffrey Greenberg/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

While the requirements have left cruise lines scrambling to get ready, travel advisors like Karen Rutter of Expedia Cruises believe it’s time to start booking again.

“Now is a great time to book cruises for the new year,” Rutter said. “Cruise lines are offering free air, drinks, gratuities, excursions, Wi-Fi and even some BOGO sales for the new year and on into 2022.”

“I can’t think of a better holiday gift for a loved one,” Rutter continued. “Cruise lines have always been focused on sanitation and with the new protocols in place, I feel very confident returning to cruising. In fact, I’m booking one for myself for 2021 this week.”

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