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Texas will not allow a hostile surge

Lieutenant Chris Olivarez warns of migrant caravan headed to US on ‘Your World’.

This is a rush transcript of "Your World" on October 25, 2021. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

CHARLES PAYNE, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: President Biden making a push for what's expected to be $2 trillion in social spending during a stop in New Jersey today.

Will all of that spending keep prices soaring? We are on it.

Welcome, everyone. I'm Charles Payne, in for Neil Cavuto. And this is your world. And Neil will be back tomorrow.

First, though, to all of that spending with Chad Pergram on Capitol Hill, amid talks Democrats could get a deal by Wednesday, Lydia Hu at New York's JFK Airport, where efforts to end that shipping blockage could mean even higher prices.

We begin with Chad.

CHAD PERGRAM, FOX NEWS CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, Charles.

This is the week the Democrats hope to forge an agreement on the social spending plan. But obstacles remain. Paying for the bill could be a problem.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: What are we doing? What in God's name are we doing? And, by the way, you hear these numbers, $3.5 trillion. You hear $1.75 trillion. We pay for it all. It doesn't increase the deficit one single cent.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PERGRAM: Increasing the corporate tax appears to be on the ropes. There won't be a big spike. But Democrats are now focused on a billionaires tax. It would only impact several 100 people. That's good politics for the left.

Senator Kyrsten Sinema is skeptical of additional taxes. However, Democrat Joe Manchin appears to be OK with taxing the ultra-rich.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOE MANCHIN (D-WV): I support basically everyone paying their fair share of taxes. How you get to it, we all have a different approach to that. But as far as on the taxation, I think that corporations should be paying at least a minimum if you're doing business in the United States.

I think that anyone who basically has the protection of this country should be paying.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PERGRAM: GOP Utah Senator Mitt Romney says a wealth tax means the rich would hide their assets and shelve money abroad.

Manchin met with President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in Delaware over the weekend. But Manchin says the spending ceiling for him is $1.5 trillion. That's why so many programs like environmental provisions and beefed-up health care are out -- Charles.

PAYNE: Chad, thank you very much.

Inflation, of course, remaining a big concern, oil prices briefly topping $85 a barrel today before pulling back, this as shipping backlogs at the nation's ports continue to drive prices higher.

Lydia Hu at New York's JFK Airport, where they're trying to end the logjam, but it does come at a price -- Lydia.

LYDIA HU, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Charles.

Shipping an 11,000-pound pallet like this one of cargo with American Airlines will cost about 20 to 30 percent more now than it did before the pandemic. And there are other estimates from other carriers, where chartering an entirely private cargo flight will cost around $2 million, when, before the pandemic, it would run around $750,000.

But retailers are paying these fees, desperate to get products on the shelves ahead of the holidays. American Airlines reported that revenue from their cargo line generated 3.7 percent of the airline's total revenue in the third quarter of this year.

That's the best quarter for cargo ever and nearly double the amount it generated during the same time in 2019. Other airlines like United and Delta, well, they're seeing growth in cargo revenue, too. Now, we have heard about how the lack of truck drivers is adding to the backlog of shipping containers in our seaports, but American Airlines says they're not seeing that same issue at the airports.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We really haven't seen that much of an issue. There's a few things here and there. But, usually, when people give us cargo, they have got a plan for the opposite side, where it needs to be picked up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HU: Now, demand is expected to pick up heading into the final stretch of the holiday season.

But while cargo is moving -- in fact, this pallet is headed to Milan shortly -- it is coming at a cost. And you have to think, Charles, that retailers and businesses paying these fees are going to be forced to pass it along to the consumer -- back to you.

PAYNE: Lydia, thank you very much, of course, as much as they can.

Now, inflation, meanwhile, is a top issue for voters in the latest FOX poll. In fact, 87 percent of voters say they're extremely or very concerned about higher prices. And this comes as the White House continues to push for close to $2 trillion in new spending. And they're trying to say, well, maybe a billionaires tax will pay for it.

But will? Would it really pay for it?

Let's bring in American Action Forum president Douglas Holtz-Eakin.

First of all, whenever they say billionaires tax, I hear a Charles Payne tax. Somehow, that's coming down to me. And I'm not a billionaire, Doug.

(LAUGHTER)

DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, FORMER CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE DIRECTOR: Yes, what they have on the table now is this idea of taxing unrealized capital gains, even looking back and capturing everything that's been accrued to date.

That's an extremely untested concept. There's never been leg language. We have no idea how you make a transition to that, how you enforce it, how -- what revenue you really get from it. And there are clear incentives to change your assets from publicly traded assets to things which wouldn't be taxed, and dumping all those equities can't be good news.

So I think there's a lot of questions that surround this idea that billionaires are going to pay for this.

PAYNE: Yes, I think even Nancy Pelosi said the math doesn't add up. Maybe it's $200 billion. And we're talking about a $2 trillion blend.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Right.

PAYNE: I tell a lot of people about the story of the Alternative Minimum Tax. There was an article in a newspaper in 1968. Only 155 families that paid -- did not pay taxes. So America was up in arms.

We created this tax to go after 155 people, 155, Doug. And 20 years later, it hit five million people.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Yes.

PAYNE: I mean, this -- if we -- if people fall for this, it seems to me that it's going to widen. It will start with 1,000 people, but eventually it's going to scoop up a whole lot more.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: The numbers I have seen say this is going to be paid by about 700 Americans.

It's implausible to me that you're going to have the largest expansion of the social safety net that we have even imagined in the past 50 years and have 700 people pay for it. That really doesn't add up. That's not the way we make law in this country. You get broad buy-in for the spending, and you need broad buy-in for what it takes to finance it.

And we still haven't fixed the existing social safety net, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. You go down the list of important government programs, they're all in financial disarray. So this is not a strategy that really hangs together.

PAYNE: Yes, if there really was a Social Security lockbox, if we open it before, it would be full of cobwebs, I suspect.

(LAUGHTER)

PAYNE: So, with that in mind, I mean, the clock is ticking for the Democrats.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Right.

PAYNE: At the beginning of last week, we have heard maybe by the end of the week. The beginning this week, we're hearing at the end of the week.

Kyrsten Sinema has drawn a line in the sand. What else could they go after?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, I mean, they could go back to things that have been field-tested before. And if you look at the Ways and Means bill, that looks a lot like the Obama green book coming out of the Treasury.

So those are all ideas that I think Democrats have confidence in. They would know how to implement them. They just don't have political support right now. I mean, they have run into a dead end on the corporate tax, on the top rate for individuals and a variety of other things. So they really do have a revenue problem.

And if you think about how this is developing, they are making it -- quote -- "cheaper" by just shortening the number of years that these programs exist. That's the same thing as saying, they're going to front-load the spending. And if they can't really come up with the taxes to pay for it, you're going to end up with a front-loaded spending bill that has a lot of deficit finance.

That's the stimulus in March all over again. And that's an inflation problem. So this is not going in a good direction for the Democrats.

PAYNE: So let's talk about that for a moment. We had three major fiscal stimulus bills since the pandemic, $5 trillion. Almost $900 billion went directly into folks' bank accounts.

That obviously has exacerbated this whole inflation issue. And isn't it somewhat ironic that, even though wages are going up, it's being eroded because inflation is going up just as fast?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Yes, I think there's no question that $1.9 trillion stimulus in March was just a huge mistake. The economy was growing at 6.5 percent. There was no need for stimulus. It was way too big.

And, first, it went into bank accounts and fueled asset price inflation. Then it came out as people got vaccinated, and it's fueled this consumer price inflation. That's now going at a top-line CPI rate of 7 percent annually.

PAYNE: Right.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Wages are rising at 5.6 percent. That's fantastic. But it's still not as fast as inflation. So people are falling behind.

PAYNE: Doug, we got less than a minute, but your forte is regulations. I mean, the work you put out, I'd invite anyone to read it.

Where are we now this year with respect to these new regs?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, I mean, they have been fairly busy. Most of the regulatory action so far has been taking down regs that the Trump administration had implemented.

And so they have got a lot of regs finalized. They have got a lot of paperwork hours for doing that. But they don't have a big regulatory burden yet. But if you think about it, they have promised to make climate the number one policy priority. They don't have a legislative vehicle for their climate policy.

So get ready. That's going to span every agency in the government. And it's going to be an enormous amount of rulemaking in the next three years.

PAYNE: Wow.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, you're the best. Thank you very much.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Thank you.

PAYNE: Well, folks, it happened. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding.

Tesla's joined the trillion-dollar club. That's right, the stock closing above a trillion -- $1,000 a share. Of course, this is the company led by Elon Musk seeing its market value top $1 trillion for the first time ever.

Now, Hertz agreed to buy 100,000 of their electric vehicles, Tesla now valued at more than nine -- the top nine automakers combined -- I'm talking GM and Ford -- on that list.

Well, President Biden in New Jersey today. He's in Virginia tomorrow. We have got two races for governor that could hold the keys to so much more. But with the president's number sliding, are Democrats worrying? Pollster Lee Carter is coming up.

And later: why critics say this video police just released of shoplifters should be putting liberal policies front and center.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: President Biden returning to the White House after a stop in New Jersey today, as the state gets ready for its gubernatorial election next week.

The president is heading to Virginia tomorrow to campaign in the state's tight race. And forget about tuning -- turning out the base. Independent voters could be turning out to be the biggest problem.

To FOX's Jacqui Heinrich at the White House with the very latest -- Jacqui.

JACQUI HEINRICH, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Charles. Good afternoon to you.

The president went to New Jersey to promote his spending plan, working with what's really a three-day window to try to get this done, if he wants to bring it across the finish line, go to the Hill, do the dog and pony show and call this an achievement, before he gets on a plane and heads to Italy and Scotland for the G20 and COP 26 conferences.

He wanted to have and wants to have a legislative achievement in his back pocket when he appears shoulder to shoulder with these foreign leaders.

So because there's been no time to waste, he met this past weekend with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Joe Manchin at his home in Wilmington, which I don't believe we have ever seen him do before. And this morning, ahead of his trip to New Jersey to promote this plan, Biden said he was hopeful, hopeful about a timeline.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

QUESTION: Do you want a plan -- a deal by the time you leave for COP?

BIDEN: Yes.

QUESTION: Is that something you've expressed to Democrats?

BIDEN: That's my -- that's my hope.

It would be very, very positive to get it done before the trip.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEINRICH: But the president also needs to get this legislation across the finish line because he is sinking in the polls. A new Gallup poll shows that the president's lost more ground on job approval from day one than any president since World War II. His approval among independents is also driving a lot of that loss.

Currently, only 34 percent of independents approve of the job Biden is doing. And that is the lowest of his term to date, a fall of 21 points since June.

Overall, the polls showed his approvals holding at 42 percent after dropping sharply in September. And that is becoming toxic for Democrats running for office, including in the New Jersey governor's race, where the president went today to promote his agenda.

The White House insisted the point of that trip was not to campaign for the incumbent governor, Phil Murphy, but -- despite Biden's endorsement of him. He did appear there. Biden also is heading to Virginia tomorrow. That trip is specifically to campaign for the Democrat Terry McAuliffe in this dead heat race that we're watching for governor.

The election there is considered to be a bellwether for how Democrats are going to fare in the midterms. Still, progressives are saying that there was no mistake in staving off a vote on the first half of the president's agenda. It could have happened back in September. They decided to block that vote and are now being asked whether this has put complicating factors potentially for these governor's races, especially in Virginia coming right up.

They're saying that these are blue states, they should be easy wins. But we will see how that pans out -- Charles.

PAYNE: We certainly will.

Jacqui, thank you very much.

HEINRICH: Thanks.

PAYNE: So let's get the read from GOP pollster Lee Carter.

Lee, what is the impact of President Biden's -- these -- I mean, these are freefalling approval numbers -- particularly amongst independents in these key governor races?

LEE CARTER, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: I mean, I think it's staggering to see the level at which the approval ratings have fallen. You're looking at almost a 30-point drop in just a matter of months.

And you can't just point to one thing. It's everything. In general, independents and even Republicans and Democrats are feeling the country's going in the wrong direction. A lot of people voted for Biden because they gave him the benefit of the doubt, saying this is at least got to be better than it was. And, in fact, people are feeling worse about it than it was.

So I think this is really bad news for Governor Murphy in New Jersey, who really thought that he had a sure path to reelection. I don't think it's quite as sure as it used to be. His gap is narrowing and narrowing and narrowing. And with more than a third of voters in New Jersey as registered independents, I think his race is going to be tighter than he'd expect.

And so I think, even though these races might likely not go completely -- it's not for sure that they're going to go into Republican. The fact that Biden is even out there in Virginia, New Jersey, in states that are squarely Democratic states -- I mean, think about New Jersey. It has gone Democrat every year since 1992, every presidential election.

And Virginia, where Biden carried it by 10 points, they're now at play. This is really bad news for the Democrats and the Biden administration.

PAYNE: Also, his policies. A week or so ago, the Michigan sentiment number came out. And what caught my attention was, he not only did a freefall, but one of the reasons why is the belief or trust in the government, this administration's economic policies. It went down to 19 percent from 31 percent in just a single month.

We saw CNN poll where 25 percent of folks said, yes, they want to see both of those bills passed, but 34 percent or so said it would hurt their family. People are waking up to the fact that maybe all this so-called free money does come at a price, doesn't it? Doesn't it seem that way?

CARTER: It sure does.

When you look at 70 percent of Americans are saying they feel the impact of inflation their daily lives, about the same number of people are saying that they feel like the economy -- that America is going in the wrong direction. There's no doubt about it. People are feeling it in their pocketbooks. They're feeling it about our standing in the world.

They're feeling it all over the place. And they know -- many of them have said that they appreciated the stimulus when it came time for COVID, but now is not the time just to be pumping more money out without knowing where it's coming from.

The messaging that the Biden administration is doing, where he keeps saying it's not going to cost Americans anything, we have got this paid for, it's not working, because, if you look at the polling, a lot of people say I'm concerned about the spending, I'm concerned about putting ourselves further in debt.

PAYNE: Right.

CARTER: It's not necessarily the message that's going to be working for the American people right now.

PAYNE: Lee, I think that's the irony here.

I think, when you started at the beginning of this, you said it was a variety of things. But what they all have in common is, the president always gets out in front of the cameras and say everything's OK, that, no, the Afghanistan withdrawal wasn't botched, that, no, that jobs report that should have been a million people was only 190,000 was great because the unemployed limit rate went down.

And that only went down because 180,000 people left the work force. Every time something goes wrong, President Biden tells America that's -- that it's actually great. And I think some folks are feeling insulted about that.

CARTER: I think you're right.

And I also think he promised unity, and he's not -- and people aren't seeing unity. He said that there was going to be compromise. We're not seeing compromise. He said it was going to be a new day in Washington, D.C., and yet it's not.

So I think the level of trust that people have in Joe Biden and the Democrats to do something differently than has been done before is eroding. And that's a real, real problem, because they -- he did have the benefit doubt.

PAYNE: Yes.

CARTER: I mean, he had more than 60 percent support on day one. People wanted this to be a -- wanted him to do a great job. They wanted things to go the right way.

And one little bit by little bit, it's just been going the wrong direction. And people are feeling. And independents are really, really -- they have had it.

PAYNE: What do you think? I mean, we got a couple minutes to go.

Just -- President Obama, of course, that midterm was mind-boggling how much they lost. To coin a phrase, they were shellacked.

CARTER: Yes.

PAYNE: A lot of Democrats must know that, they continue along this path, they're going to sacrifice their own political career.

You think many of them up for that?

CARTER: I think that they have got to come up with something better if they -- if they don't expect the same result.

At the same time. I think Republicans need to come up with their North Star. What is the thing that they're going to run on? Is it going to be the economy? Is it going to be -- because that's very much -- if you look at the playbook in 2010, there were so many people running for -- it wasn't just saying we're running against this. We're running for something.

And so I think the Republicans have to put together a picture, whether it's a signature policy, whether it's something that's going to say that things are going to get better. And my guess is it's going to be around the economy. They have got to get a rallying cry, so people say, I'm going to vote against the Democrats and for this.

PAYNE: Right.

CARTER: I'm not just voting against the Democrats, because, in the midterms, that can keep people home.

PAYNE: Yes, I love it when you tell me what you're for, not what the other person is, but what you're for. Then I can make a proper assessment.

CARTER: Exactly.

PAYNE: Lee, thank you very much. I really appreciate it.

CARTER: Always great to see you.

PAYNE: All right, folks, police releasing video of another hand bank heist in broad daylight. What's driving thieves to get more brazen?

And migrants breaking through police barriers as they head to the United States. Is anything being done to stop this?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: In Chicago's war on crime, my next guest says the criminals are winning. With thousands of migrants heading to the U.S. looking to get in, is the administration doing anything to figure this out?

We're back in 60 seconds.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Lately, Chicago's Magnificent Mile is looking anything but.

To FOX Business' Grady Trimble on the rash of robberies stores are facing - - Grady.

GRADY TRIMBLE, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Charles, Robert targeted this Bottega Veneta store twice in just three weeks. Theft and burglary are up across the city of Chicago.

And it is becoming a growing problem here on the Magnificent Mile. In the latest incident caught on security camera, you see a hooded suspect push past a female employee at this store. Then that robber and another suspect rush into the store, snatch up as many designer purses as possible, and rush out.

Amid the rising crime, major retailers like Macy's, Gap and Disney have closed stores on Michigan Avenue. Critics place part of the blame for the increase in shoplifting on Democratic state's attorney Kim Foxx. Her office stopped prosecuting shoplifting as a felony if the stolen items are worth less than $1,000.

In response, Foxx's office tells us: "we recognize community concerns around crime and the impact it can have on one's sense of safety, as well as the economic stability of a business. We continue to prosecute retail theft cases as misdemeanors and felonies when appropriate to do so based on the facts and evidence."

The rise in shoplifting is not just a Chicago problem. It's happening in other major cities across the country. In San Francisco, it's becoming such a problem, Walgreens announced its closing five more stores in the Bay Area as a result.

Back here in Chicago, there are concerns crime could get even worse because of the city's vaccine mandate for police officers. Already, a number of Chicago cops are on unpaid leave because they have not gotten vaccinated -- Charles.

PAYNE: Grady, thank you very much.

Now, it's not just theft on the rise in Chicago, shootings, murders also up, according to the city's police data.

My next guest says Cook County state attorney Kim Foxx's charging decisions are to blame and is introducing a bill in the statehouse that would allow police to override them.

Illinois state Representative and Republican leader Jim Durkin joins me now.

By the way, we did reach out to Mayor Lori Lightfoot and the state's attorney, Foxx. Both were unavailable, although the state's attorney's office did provide us with a statement, which reads in part: "Pursuing justice requires that prosecutors act with integrity and meet the ethical standards to bring charges against persons committing crimes. Evidence must support those charges."

Representative Durkin, I have seen some pretty good evidence some crime is going on. And it feels like it's going on without any sort of any -- any sort of threat of prosecution.

STATE REP. JIM DURKIN (R-IL): That's correct.

And what we're seeing not only on this retail theft, what we have witnessed in the city, but also in the suburbs. It's also violent crimes, because there's really no accountability. There's no -- there's no consequences that are -- that this state's attorney's office is doing with respect to crime on every level.

She took office saying that: I'm not going to prosecute cases, theft cases, retail theft cases, unless they're over $1,000. It's $300 is the threshold for a felony theft; $1,000 is a lot of stuff. But I know suburban police officers and also suburban mayors are like we don't even waste our time, because we know that the state's attorney's office will not charge these group of vandals and thieves who come into our shopping malls and just grab nice things off the shelves, running it out to the parking lot.

But it gets worse than that, Charles. We have shootings that are going on, gangland shootings that are in open daylight that are so brazen. It almost means -- it reminds me -- last time I have seen anything like that was back in the Al Capone days. But there's absolutely no -- there's no consequences.

The state's attorney's office is trying to avoid making difficult decisions. She's not doing her job.

PAYNE: It just -- it just seems that so much of this is sort of this -- this resistance to blame people who commit crimes. Either the gun committed the crime. It's a gun crime, or it was not -- it was like indifferent. It was only 900 bucks.

What -- is that the motivating factor here, just some sort of -- it's not - - it has nothing to do with law and order and it feels like everything in my mind to do with some sort of social things, commentary or statement that it's not their fault.

DURKIN: Well, I think that state's attorney Foxx is in the wrong position. She should be serving as a public defender of Cook County, as opposed to the chief prosecuting attorney.

I served in that office for a number of years. I have tried every imaginable case. I have investigated, I have charged everything from retail thefts to capital murder. I know how the office works. But the fact is, the public in Chicago and the suburbs have lost confidence with our state's attorney.

And even worse, Chicago police and also some police in police departments throughout Cook County have lost confidence in her on every issue, charging decision.

PAYNE: Right.

DURKIN: She's making decisions on the street as if she's part of the jury. She shouldn't be doing that. It's about whether or not there's probable cause.

That's why I'm -- I had to introduce my legislation which will allow suburban police departments to override a decision to reject a felony charge or something that she designates as a continuing investigation, to put the case in the system.

And, to me, that's exactly what Chicago police has that under their ordinances right now. I want suburban police officers to do the same. Murders are stacking up in suburbs without the state's attorney's office charging them when they have good evidence.

And I have talked to the police officers and the chiefs in those districts about the cases that have been sitting in this abyss that the state's attorney has created.

PAYNE: From time to time, from being an outsider, and I try to watch and pay attention as close as possible, it does seem like there's even been some friction with the mayor's office and Kim Foxx as well.

I mean, is there is there sufficient frustration throughout the state that obviously things are not good? And the people who are the victims of these crimes are the ones that ostensibly they keep saying they're trying to protect.

DURKIN: Well, the thing is, they're not doing a -- the state's attorney of Cook County is not protecting neighborhoods. And that's our job, is to keep our public safe.

But there clearly is frustration between the city of Chicago, the mayor, Mayor Lightfoot and Foxx. Lightfoot was a federal prosecutor. She understands the criminal justice system. And there was this horrific shoot- out in the West Side of Chicago on a Sunday afternoon where 90 shell casings were recovered, in which there was a death. Two other people were shot. They were severely hurt.

And the state's attorney's office decided that this was a case that they weren't going to charge because it was mutual combat. And you know what that means to me, Charles? That means that she looks at it as a gentleman's duel.

PAYNE: Yes.

DURKIN: That's how she's approaching -- approaching these gang cases and other types of just really horrible crimes.

She's looking for ways not to work with police. She's doing just the opposite. And that's not the role of the chief prosecuting attorney in our county.

PAYNE: Representative Durkin, thank you very much.

And, of course, we will continue to follow up as your bill progressives. Thank you.

DURKIN: Great. Thank you very much.

PAYNE: Coming up: a massive group of migrants breaking through a blockade on their way to the United States.

Our own Griff Jenkins is there on the ground in Mexico.

GRIFF JENKINS, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Charles, we're actually just arriving in the town of Chiapas, about 25 miles north of top of Tapachula. You can see the migrants behind us. The town here says they're going to receive them.

We will bring you a report coming up on the other side of this commercial.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: The border surge continuing.

An organized group of 3,000 migrants now making its way to the U.S. after pushing past police in Mexico over the weekend.

FOX News' Griff Jenkins is on the ground in Chiapas, Mexico, with the latest -- Griff.

JENKINS: Charles, they're 3,000-strong, and they're not losing any steam.

Although there is a big tropical storm coming down on us now, I'm just going to stand and let you see the caravan now making their way. They're only in day three, and they have made it about 25 miles north of Tapachula, the southernmost city in Mexico. When they began, they got a little resistance from Mexican officials.

So far today, no one has pushed back. Charles, I have been in a lot of caravans. I was in the caravan two years ago that went all the way from Honduras to the U.S. border. This one has more migrants from more different cities than ever. There's people from Central America, South America, Haiti, and Cuba, and Africa, and all over the world.

We talked to some of the migrants from both El Salvador and Honduras about their trip right now, why they're doing it. Here's a little bit of what they said. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VICTOR CONTRERAS, MIGRANT: My country's real tough monetarily. And so, therefore, I'm trying this time to go back to the United States.

JENKINS: Are you prepared to go -- to walk that far?

MICHAEL ALBERS, MIGRANT: If we got to walk 2,000 more, we will do it. We will do it because all our strength is to make it. So it's not losing strength here in this road.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JENKINS: And, Charles, the organizer of this caravan, Irineo Mujica of Pueblos Unidos Migrantes, is the same organizer of 2019. He's so organized this time, there was a Q.R. code put up on October 15 for migrants to sign up.

And, as you can see, they're just coming now.

(SPEAKING SPANISH)

JENKINS: No?

(SPEAKING SPANISH)

JENKINS: From Haiti?

So, as you can see, migrants from Haiti. They just keep coming. They have got a long way to go. It's about 2, 500 miles to the U.S. border if they're headed for Texas -- Charles.

PAYNE: Great job, as usual. Thank you very much.

The question, of course, now is how officials here are going to brace for this latest surge.

I want to bring in Texas Department of Public Safety Lieutenant Chris Olivarez, who joins us now.

So, what's the plan? I mean, obviously, this is so well-organized and so brazen and so confident. How -- what happens when they get to our border?

LT. CHRISTOPHER OLIVAREZ, TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY: Well, great to be with you, Charles.

So we are closely monitoring this caravan right now. We can mobilize resources at a moment's notice. We have a great partner with the Texas National Guard, who has deployed thousands of resources to the Southern border as well, and more to come.

But I can tell you right now, Charles, what took place in Del Rio a few weeks ago with the Haitians, Texas will not allow that. That's not going to happen again. We are closely monitoring this caravan. And we will take a proactive approach. We work closely with our federal partners.

The question is, once they get to a certain location, where are they going to break off and where are they going to end up? That's what we need to focus on. But I can tell you right now, we have plenty of assets in place that we can make deter this caravan from surging the Southern border.

And that's what we have. That's what we're focused on right now.

PAYNE: What do you think the message was, then, that -- again, you have got folks from all over the planet really. It's like a United Nations and there's a Q.R. code. A lot of money had to go into the organization of all this.

What do you think the message was, just get to the border, even -- and you mentioned your federal partners. Once you get past the Border Patrol, some federal agency will make it easier for you to get into the United States?

OLIVAREZ: Right.

And that's the issue right now. The issue is that the federal government has sent out this message that right now is the time to come to the U.S., because you will be let into the country. And that's why you see these large groups of caravans that are surging the border. We saw that in Del Rio a few weeks ago. We're continuing to see that day in and day out along the Southern border.

We still have thousands that are coming across the border every single day. So the problem is the messaging. The messaging is right now, come to the U.S., because you will be let free into the country, because there is no consequences. There is no rule of law that's being enforced by the federal government.

That's why Texas is stepping in. We are stepping in. And we are going to do what we can as far as with the resources that we have to contain this surge. And also not only that, Charles, but we also are arresting illegal immigrants that are coming across that are violating state law for criminal trespass. So we are making arrests.

We have made over 1, 400 arrests since July. So the message that we are sending is that don't come to Texas. If you do, you will be arrested, you will be apprehended, and you will be placed behind bars.

PAYNE: Yes, 1.7 million apprehensions in the fiscal year, shattering all records on that have been out there. And still these organizations -- these big major organized caravans continue.

Are you upset, are you frustrated with the Mexican government? That wasn't a lot of resistance that was put up there.

OLIVAREZ: Right.

So that's something that the federal government, our federal government needs to work out with the Mexican government. They got to put more pressure on them to stop these caravans from making it further north. And right now, what we saw in some of those videos, that's not taking place.

They have really got to take a stance and enforce and have some action to prevent these caravans. But, right now, there's so much money being involved with human smuggling.

Just to give you an insight, right now, human smugglers are making well over $100 million a week just on human smuggling. That's not even narcotics. So there's so much money involved with these cartels and these smuggling organizations. They have so much power right now, that it's going to be very difficult and challenging to shut these groups down, because as long as the message is being sent to come to the U.S., we're going to continue seeing these caravans making their way to the Southern border.

PAYNE: Chris, I got to wrap this up. But tell me that, $100 million a week?

OLIVAREZ: That's correct. That's what we're getting from our resources...

PAYNE: Wow.

OLIVAREZ: ... from our sources, that these human smugglers are making well over $100 million a week just on human smuggling, not even narcotics, just human smuggling.

PAYNE: Wow.

Chris, be safe. Thank you very much. We always appreciate it.

OLIVAREZ: Appreciate it.

PAYNE: And we are learning more about the unfolding events that led to the fatal shooting on the set of Alec Baldwin's movie "Rust" and possible warning signs that were ignored. We have got exclusive details coming next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: New details into the fatal shooting on a set of Alec Baldwin's new film, "Rust," including some potentially troubling information about the movie's assistant director.

Chief correspondent Jonathan Hunt is in Los Angeles with the latest -- Jonathan.

JONATHAN HUNT, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Charles.

According to the director of the movie "Rust" and other crew members, at least two people likely handled the gun that killed cinematographer Halyna Hutchins before that gun was handed to Alec Baldwin.

As a series of vigils were held over the weekend for Hutchins, new information released by the sheriff revealed that Baldwin was rehearsing a scene at the time, drawing his gun from his holster and pointing it directly at the camera, where Hutchins was standing.

The affidavits released by the sheriff reveal that, according to Joel Souza, the director, who was injured in the shooting, someone had shouted "cold gun" when the weapon was handed to Baldwin, meaning it should have been safe to use.

Others have identified the person who said that as Dave Halls, the assistant director, one of those with responsibility for checking the weapon, and other crew members within the industry have come forward to reveal that they had previously raised concerns on different productions about Halls' approach to safety issues.

Concerns have also been raised about the armorer on set, the person directly responsible for weapons. On the set of "Rust," that was 24-year- old Hannah Gutierrez. Neither Gutierrez nor the assistant director, Halls, have publicly commented.

Baldwin's wife, meantime, Hilaria, posted on Instagram today, saying -- quote -- "My heart is with Halyna, her husband, her son, their family and loved ones, and my Alec. It's said there are no words because it's impossible to express the shock and heartache of such a tragic accident, heartbreak, loss, support."

The questions that remain unanswered, Charles, how on earth did a live round get into a gun that was about to be used on a movie set? Who put that live round in the gun, and why, Charles?

PAYNE: Jonathan, thank you very much.

HUNT: Sure.

PAYNE: Well, now to some wicked weather slamming parts of America including a bomb cyclone blasting its way onto the West Coast.

To FOX weather correspondent Max Gorden in Feather River Canyon, California, with the latest.

MAX GORDEN, FOX WEATHER CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Charles.

Right now, I'm standing in the steep, rugged terrain of the Sierra Foothills. And this is an area that was recently ravaged by the Dixie Fire. Now, over the summer, the Dixie Fire burned up nearly a million acres in this neck of the woods.

But, recently, with this bomb cyclone, with this latest storm system moving through, the focus has turned to burn scar flooding. Now, burn scar flooding occurs when all the vegetation is burned off on the hillsides, because these fires, they destroy the trees, the vegetation, the duff on the forest floor that can help soak up the rain. And this can all lead to flash flooding when you have heavy rainfall like we have been experiencing here in Northern California.

Vegetation also holds the soil in place. So mudslides and other erosion issues can be a problem on burn scars. And we have seen a big mudslide along Highway 70 about eight miles north of the town of Pulga. Caltrans has now shut down a large stretch of Highway 70 that runs along the Feather River Canyon and through the Dixie Fire burn scar.

No word at this point when this stretch of Highway 70 will reopen or how long it will take to clear the debris from that mudslide. And all this rain can be destructive. It's also very needed. California is in the midst of a severe drought. Many of the lakes and reservoirs here are running low.

That includes Lake Oroville, which is fed by the Feather River and is the state's second largest reservoir. Over the summer, lake levels hit only a quarter of the capacity of that lake. But now, with this rain, water levels in the lake are on the rise.

Meanwhile, back here in Northern California, things are drying out. So we are getting some relief. There are going to be some scattered showers throughout the afternoon, but the risk of flash flooding should now be over -- Charles, back to you.

PAYNE: Thank you very much, Max.

And congratulations to Max and the FOX weather team on the launch of the new FOX Weather Service.

Meantime, this man stands to win the largest cash payout in sports betting history if one team wins the World Series. And get this. He doesn't plan on keeping a cent. Meet him next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Mattress Mack is betting big.

Texas businessman Jim McIngvale, known as Mattress Mack, is betting on the Houston Astros to win the Major League Baseball World Series against the Atlanta Braves. If the Astros win it all, Mattress Mack will receive a payout totaling nearly $39 million.

So, what does he plan to do with it?

Gallery Furniture owner Jim McIngvale joins me now.

Jim, this is one heck of a bet you have made. And everyone's all abuzz about what you're going to do with the money if you do win. Tell us.

JIM MCINGVALE, OWNER, GALLERY FURNITURE: It is a big bet, Charles.

I bet like $2 million, $3 million at 10-1. And I bet $350,000 16-1, so it's a big return. And what we're doing, running promotions. If a customer Tempur-Pedic mattress and the Astros win it all, the customer gets their money back free, free, free.

And we're selling mattresses like hotcakes, biggest record days over the last week continuously after the Astros got in the World Series. So we plan on giving not all, but certainly most of the money back for our customers, who can invest it in a free mattress, because they're going to get their mattress free if the Astros win the World Series against the Atlanta Braves.

PAYNE: Mattress Mack, you're known. You're a legend in part because you take risks. You're the ultimate entrepreneur. You built this business into a magnificent success.

And you always talk about thinking big. Is that the underlying message here as well?

MCINGVALE: It is thinking big.

And the thing that amazed me most is, 90 percent of the customers that came out here who are buying these mattresses over the last three or four days are brand-new customers, even though we have been here 40 years, new customers coming in. They like the store. They like the excitement. They liked the thrill of buying a mattress.

If the Astros win it all, they get it free. So it's a great marketing tools. It will keep us relevant in an ever-changing retail environment, especially with threats from online retailers. So it makes us fun and relevant to the customers. And we're getting lots of new customers coming out here buying furniture and buying mattresses. And that's what it's all about, Charles.

PAYNE: What about the supply chain issue? It's hurting everyone, every industry, every business, particularly, of course, you know better than anyone else, the furniture industry.

Any signs that this may start to fix itself sometime soon?

MCINGVALE: You know, it's interesting you say that, because the supply chain of mattresses has really been disrupted because of the incredible cold front we had in Houston during February, which destroyed two of the leading chemical makers of the additives that raises foam.

So a lot of our mattresses suppliers are having shortages of foam. So we're selling whatever mattresses we can get. We sell a lot of made-in-America furniture, so we're a little bit more insulated than our friends are who buy most everything from China or Vietnam.

But the supply chain has certainly been disrupted. But I think there's definitely a light at the end of the tunnel. It's going to get better.

PAYNE: What about overall inflation? It's rampant. You can't get away from it. How you dealing with it?

MCINGVALE: Every week, the prices keep going up, up and up.

I'm amazed that the customers will continue to pay for the price increases we're having to put on the furniture. The mattress price increases, not so much, but sofas, dining room tables, bedroom furniture going up almost every other week.

So, yes, the inflation has been rampant. And, of course, the employee situation, we're trying to pay our team members more and do more for them, so we have plenty of great people to service our customers because, at the end of the day, if we take care of our customers, they're going to take care of us.

PAYNE: Certainly will.

I tell you what. You created a lot of buzz. It's all the way up here in New York. We can feel it. It's palpable. And now I'm definitely rooting for Houston to win it all. And I -- much continued success to you.

It really is an amazing story. And I hope everyone gets a look deeper into what you have built there, even beyond this promotional.

Mattress Mack, we will talk to you again real soon.

MCINGVALE: Thanks.

PAYNE: All right, folks, that's it for us today.

Neil, by the way, back tomorrow.

You can catch me on "Making Money" tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. By the way, we will be watching Facebook. They had a major beat. The stock is popping in after-hours trading.

"The Five" starts now.


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