'Your World' on Russia

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Will Biden’s threats be enough to stop Russia aggression?

Retired Lt. Gen. Jerry Boykin tells ‘Your World’ he is ‘more optimistic’ that the Russia-Ukraine crisis is ‘cooling down.’

This is a rush transcript of "Your World with Neil Cavuto" on February 8, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

CHARLES PAYNE, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Ahead of key inflation numbers Thursday, a fresh read on the pain consumers are feeling today, as the number of small businesses being forced to hike prices hits a 48-year high. Is it any wonder the White House is trying to change its message?

Welcome, everyone. I'm Charles Payne, in for Neil Cavuto. And this is "Your World."

More on what the White House is reportedly doing in a moment.

First to FOX Business' Susan Li on the price spikes most ma-and-pa stores are dealing with right now -- Susan.

SUSAN LI, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Charles, that's right.

Small business is the backbone of the American economy, employing the majority of workers across this country, and small businesses are also the ones that feel the most pain from higher prices. And you saw that in the January small business survey, confidence at its lowest since February last year.

Inflation, labor shortages the top two issues that are causing headaches right now. In fact, over 60 percent of small businesses had to raise prices last month. That is the highest number on record in the NFIB's entire survey history, nearly a quarter of business owners reporting inflation as their single most important problem, which is the highest number that we have seen in over 40 years.

Now, you also have a lack of workers, with nearly half complaining about job openings that they just can't seem to fill. So, in order to attract the right talent, 50 percent of businesses had to raise salaries last month, and that is the highest number ever.

That's also restricting their growth with the fewest number of companies expanding in 11 months. Now, that also feeds by the way into the broader U.S. economy and slows down GDP. Now, 40-year-high inflation isn't just a headache for businesses, but also, as we know, for consumers, including for this upcoming Super Bowl weekend.

You're going to be paying a lot more for all that calorific food while catching the L.A. Rams take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Prices are up 8 to 14 percent this year, especially for the meats. Chicken wings will cost a quarter more. Same for steak. Hamburgers are almost a fifth more expensive, beer and wine costing 3 to 4 percent more, potato chips and guacamole also higher as well.

So, yes, that's going to be a little bit pricier, but I don't think it's going to stop the 100 million or so Americans from watching the big game this year, Charles.

PAYNE: Calorific, for sure.

LI: Calorific.

PAYNE: Susan, thank you very much.

(LAUGHTER)

PAYNE: So, with all this inflation, President Biden reportedly trying to retool his economic message, today putting the focus on manufacturing and union jobs. But will it work?

To FOX News political analyst Gianno Caldwell, Democratic strategist Jenna Arnold, and Washington Examiner's Sarah Westwood.

Gianno, so the White House apparently trying to shift the focus away from these high price spikes, but is it working?

GIANNO CALDWELL, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: No, it is not working, Charles.

A YouGov poll from late January showed that only 39 percent of Americans approved of Joe Biden's handling on the economy. Bank of America did a study showing that inflation is costing poor people thousands of dollars more and is a higher impact on their -- on them; 6 percent -- McDonald's raised their prices 6 percent.

And the worst thing about them trying to change -- turn the page on the economic picture is the fact that we now see this reporting on them giving out crack pipes to the American people. I mean, this is just insanity at its worst. What the hell are they thinking?

So, we went from having Democrats going out to having fish fries in Beyonce and Jay-Z concerts, and now they're giving Americans crack pipes. This administration is a complete disaster. It is off the rails.

PAYNE: Jenna, what are they thinking?

JENNA ARNOLD, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Hi, Charles, Gianno, Sarah. So nice to be with you.

I'm not going to take Gianno's bite and to make some sort of bogus connection between crack pipes and inflation, when you look at...

(CROSSTALK)

CALDWELL: If you agree with the crack pipes, just say that. You agree with giving people crack pipes.

(CROSSTALK)

PAYNE: Let her finish, Gianno.

CALDWELL: Yes, sir.

ARNOLD: S&P is double what it was since March 2020.

(CROSSTALK)

PAYNE: Jenna, Jenna, Jenna, we don't have a lot of time, but Democrats always tell me that the stock market has nothing to do with a middle income family, that their money goes -- doesn't go as far as it used to.

(CROSSTALK)

ARNOLD: Charles, if you want me to answer, I'm happy to.

(CROSSTALK)

PAYNE: Sure. Sure. I want -- I'm trying to help you.

If you're going to insult the audience and say, hey, the stock market's up, even though your grocery bill, you can't afford it, then go for it

ARNOLD: As Susan just prepared, I'm very excited for my menu this upcoming Sunday to watch the Super Bowl.

But, as Susan pointed out, meat prices are up 25 percent. Cargill and companies like Tyson are reporting record profits. So, you're sitting here and trying to make this a left and right issue, and I would really err against. That is -- we don't have to make it as political as it is.

PAYNE: So, Sarah, that has been the tactic of the administration, blame American businesses, who, by the way, hire Americans, who, by the way, are the ones who are giving people higher wages.

You think that's the tactic? Because I don't know that the public is buying this.

SARAH WESTWOOD, THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Yes, the problem here is that the Biden administration has totally burned through its credibility when it comes to inflation and the economy.

Virtually everything the Biden White House has said about inflation has turned out to be wrong. They said inflation wasn't likely. They said it was going to be transitory. They started dismissing it as a minor inconvenience, the tragedy of the treadmill, in the words of Jen Psaki.

They blamed it solely on the supply chain, even though that's really only one part of this equation, while, at the same time, simultaneously touting the fact that, at Christmas, that Christmas holiday supply chain crisis didn't come to pass. Most of the people got their presents. So, which is it? Was the supply chain fixed or is it solely responsible?

And as you mentioned, Charles, also blaming this on corporate greed.

PAYNE: Yes.

WESTWOOD: This is the White House that seems to think it mostly just has a messaging problem when it comes to inflation. They're just looking for the right combination of words.

But what they have is a policy problem. They're not reaching for any of the tools available to them to lower prices.

PAYNE: Yes.

Gianno, that's what frustrates me is, every time President Biden speaks, he starts off by bragging and then, secondly, by sort of insulting the public. There were six billion out-of-stock replies when people want to look for Christmas gifts, six billion.

The prices are going through the roof. Fossil fuels, gasoline is the number one thing. The president declared war on fossil fuels, and, essentially, they're saying suck it up, because we want to be clean energy leaders 20 years or 30 years down the road.

So, again, this is not about left, right. This is about people really struggling amidst the greatest jobs market in history, against an economy that should be doing extremely well. And they're being left out, aren't they?

CALDWELL: Now, they absolutely are being left out.

And I'm going to tell you, because you see that multiple news channels, and we know that there's more left-leaning media than there is center or even right. The gaslighting that happens with the Biden administration is not working.

Many people are seeing what's truly going on. And I talk to a lot of folks who honestly regret their vote for Joe Biden, because Joe Biden, who campaigned from his basement, as we know, is the participation trophy president.

He did not really campaign. And not only that. You see what's going on at the White House when it comes to policy. He's not working with the leadership. Democrats and Republicans should be working together, and he's trying to be a bulldozer and has been ineffective -- an ineffective strategy.

PAYNE: So, Jenna, back to this notion that the White House is retooling the message, what's the focus going to be?

ARNOLD: Well, I think the focus needs to be on, how is that we can possibly both share our blessings and our burdens together?

We just exited or hopefully are on the upswing of exiting what had been one of the greatest crises humanity has ever seen. And so here we are pointing fingers at administrations, when, of course, we're taking a big economic hit.

We have all just survived. And no one wants to -- no one wants to shoulder the burden of having pushed through a pandemic like this.

I think we really have to take a close look at the fact that these kinds of crises hold magnifying glasses over the greatest clash of our society, and certainly inequity is one of them. And this is a perfect example of how and why.

PAYNE: Sarah, you have got the -- you know what's going on down in D.C., and you must really hear the whispers. I hear them up here in New York about this retooled message.

What do you think Democrats, who are up for reelection, would like to hear from the White House?

WESTWOOD: Yes, I think Democrats also are sort of lost for words when it comes to talking about inflation.

The rhetoric that they have been using so far has alienated a lot of voters, who are increasingly feeling like the Democratic Party isn't willing to do what's necessary to address inflation. And that's pretty clear.

I mean, the White House would have done a lot of things differently if they were really concerned about rising prices. They would not have supported such a giant stimulus package. They would not have essentially subsidized a labor shortage by giving out those enhanced unemployment benefits far longer than was appropriate.

PAYNE: Yes.

WESTWOOD: And Biden would not have taken months to set forth his nominees for the Federal Reserve because contractionary monetary policy is how, long term, this is going to get fixed.

But Biden didn't even take those nominations seriously, even something he could have done unilaterally. So I think voters see that Democrats have contributed significantly to this.

(CROSSTALK)

PAYNE: Sarah, Gianno, Jenna, thank you all very much.

CALDWELL: Thank you.

PAYNE: So, with war fears mounting, talks are ramping up, but are Russia and U.S. allies as far apart as the leaders in this picture?

And could this trucker protest up there slam the brakes on some restrictions here? FOX News is live on the scene.

And, later, is a no-fly list for migrants coming? Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman on what he's planning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Trucks heading to Canada from the U.S. backed up for miles today, as protesters block traffic over the country's COVID mandates.

To FOX News Molly Line in Ottawa with the very latest -- Molly.

MOLLY LINE, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Charles.

It is plenty loud here in Ottawa, but, believe it or not, it is quieter than it has been in at least a dozen days because of a judge's injunctions against the honking of horns.

But, as you can hear, there are still engines being revved. And it's a pretty celebratory atmosphere here in the protests in Ottawa. There were bands playing and all the people gathered.

And you can see Parliament Hill right there just around it (INAUDIBLE) a government center (INAUDIBLE) from the mayor to the police chief to the prime minister, all saying they're having so much trouble getting these big rigs moving, the protesters absolutely hunkered down here.

The House of Commons held an emergency meeting last night, one day after the city of Ottawa declared a state of emergency, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowing that the federal government will be there to offer help, noting the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have mobilized some 300 officers.

He criticized the blockade and the demonstrators.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JUSTIN TRUDEAU, CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER: The people of Ottawa don't deserve to be harassed in their own neighborhoods. They don't deserve to be confronted with the inherent violence of a swastika flying on a street corner or a Confederate Flag.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LINE: Trudeau has aimed to paint the protesters as extremists.

But another member of Parliament pushed back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCOT DAVIDSON, CANADIAN PARLIAMENT MEMBER: It's not just the protesters outside and the provincial capitals across the country who have these so- called unacceptable views.

These views are held by -- these views are not held by some fringe minority. I have heard these opinions from my own constituents.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LINE: (INAUDIBLE) the capital city. They're blocking (INAUDIBLE) travel as far away as Alberta and at the Ambassador Bridge crossing.

(INAUDIBLE) Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson saying that people are living in fear. And he sent letters to Trudeau and to other safety officials calling for an additional 1,800 police officers to come here to the city of Ottawa to try and clear things up.

But talking to these protesters, they're very comfortable in these trucks. Right now, they're not working. And this could go on for a very long time.

So, we will see how it ultimately comes to a conclusion, but we're not seeing it right now -- Charles.

PAYNE: No, we're not.

Molly, you were a little muffled there, but we got most of it. Thank you very much.

And from the standoff in Canada to the showdown with Russia. President Joe Biden threatening to block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russian President Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine. But, yesterday, he would not say how. Are we getting any clarity today?

FOX News' Jacqui Heinrich is at the White House with the very latest -- Jacqui.

JACQUI HEINRICH, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Charles.

Yes, the White House offered no more clarity on how President Biden is going to make good on his promise to -- quote -- "bring an end to Nord Stream 2" in the event of a Russian invasion, also no more clarity on why the German chancellor didn't even utter the words Nord Stream 2, despite multiple questions from both American media and the German press pressuring him to give an answer about why exactly he won't give an ironclad commitment in public to shut it down in the event of an invasion.

Chancellor Scholz will meet with Putin tomorrow. French President Emmanuel Macron met with Putin yesterday and claimed -- Macron did -- that Putin said during these talks that Moscow would not further escalate the Ukraine crisis. The Kremlin denied those reports.

And, today, the White House did not appear to have any idea, even a day later, which side was true and which was not.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HEINRICH: If the U.S. is not aware of where things stand, doesn't that signal that there's a separate negotiating track happening between the Europeans and Russia right now that could put the U.S. at risk of being sort of shut out from that discussion?

JEN PSAKI, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Not in any way. I completely disagree with what you just conveyed.

First of all, there are a range of diplomatic conversations happening all the time. And that's been the case for many weeks. The United States is a key player in the vast majority of those negotiations.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEINRICH: Press Secretary Jen Psaki also pushed back on concern that the U.S. and allies are spending time talking while Putin continues to amass troops, including warships that moved into the Black Sea this morning under the guise of an exercise.

And there is concern that it could be an invasion force potentially targeting the city of Odessa. Psaki reiterated today what the president said yesterday, that the belief here at the White House is that Putin has not yet made up his mind. They continue to warn of massive economic consequences should he move toward an invasion, but we are no closer to hearing the details of what those consequences look like.

We have repeatedly asked about the package of sanctions, whether SWIFT is on the table, and nobody wants to telegraph in public what those punches are going to be, but just say that they will be very strong -- Charles.

PAYNE: Jacqui, before you go, the idea that you have got Boris Johnson saying one thing, you have got Germany saying one thing, you have got France saying one thing, and then, of course, President Biden, this notion of an un-united front or disarray, does that make this feel like it's maybe even more problematic than forging toward a potential solution?

HEINRICH: Well, the concern, obviously, is that you don't want to allow Putin to sort of peel off the NATO allies one by one, so you don't want him to squeeze Germany on energy. You don't want him to hash out a deal brokered by France for some sort of a deal that leaves the U.S. out of that discussion.

When I ask the White House about this, they always say, look these leader- to-leader meetings. They are allowed to do them. We're all reading from the same page.

But we have not seen President Biden have a one-on-one with Putin about this. They say that that is on the table, but they're -- the White House here, they indicated that they're waiting for some signal that they're moving toward diplomacy and not just more of this waiting game -- Charles.

PAYNE: Yes, Jacqui, thank you very much.

So, will President Biden's threats to block access to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be enough to stop Russia aggression?

Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Lieutenant General Jerry Boykin joins me now.

General, your thoughts? I mean, you just heard me -- Jacqui and I talking about this and there seems to be a whole lot of confusion about all of it.

LT. GEN. JERRY BOYKIN (RET.), U.S. ARMY: Well, I think it is a very confusing situation and has been for some time.

But I actually am a little bit more optimistic now that Putin has not made a final decision. And I think that what we're seeing is not only America trying to stand against this invasion of Ukraine, but I think we're seeing the Europeans now starting to step up to the plate.

And Macron's visit with Putin and his diplomatic negotiations with Putin, I think, is a good indicator that the Europeans are stepping up and realizing that this is really a European problem as much or more than it is a NATO problem.

PAYNE: There's one part of this, though, that I think Americans are also concerned about, and it's this closer relationship that's been forged between Russia and China.

Essentially, Russia has its own objectives, and China being Taiwan. Does that -- does that have -- is there anything the Biden presidency and then administration during this negotiations should be trying to also break that apart as well?

BOYKIN: Well, yes, but I'm not sure how they do that, because, again, I think that both the Chinese and the Russians have seen nothing but weakness in this administration.

So -- but, yes, the answer is that these two are very dangerous allies, particularly as it impacts on us here in America, as well as the rest of the Western world. So I think that what we need to be doing is appealing to the Chinese in particular to stay the course with what they're doing in the Olympics, to do what they have planned over the next couple of weeks, and to stay out of what's going on here with the Russians.

PAYNE: So you mentioned the negotiations with Macron.

Apparently, Vladimir Putin is going to -- or at least says he will pull back the troops in Belarus once these war game exercises are complete. At least that gives us something to look toward. But can we trust it?

BOYKIN: Well, you can never trust Vladimir Putin or the Russian bureaucracy.

But, that said, this exercise that allegedly has been planned for quite some time also includes some amphibious platforms out in the Black Sea there. And if we see them removing these platforms out of the Black Sea and removing the troops from the Ukraine -- I mean, from the Belarus, I think that's a very positive indication that this crisis is cooling down.

PAYNE: Well, I'm really happy to hear that you're more optimistic. That makes us feel a little bit better as well.

General, thank you very much.

BOYKIN: Thank you.

PAYNE: So you think the IRS is done snooping just because they're ditching facial recognition? Well, think again.

And meet the senator who's sounding the alarm on something more troubling for your money.

And if you tax them, well, they will leave. Ahead of the midterms, more Americans in high-tax blue states are fleeing. Should Democrats in Washington be worrying?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Could unruly passengers soon find themselves on a no-fly list?

What one major airline is asking the government to do. And what about a no- fly list for migrants? Why that could be happening, something Republican Senator Rob Portman is saying.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Another IRS mess.

We know the tax man now dropping plans for facial recognition to track you, but a group of senators now going after the agency's expanded powers to monitor online payment transactions of more than $600.

Tennessee Republican Bill Hagerty is one of the lawmakers leading the effort. And he joins us now.

Senator Hagerty, thanks for joining us.

This is something that's outrageous, $600 total in one year on Venmo or these other payment plans. Everyone's outraged about this. I'm really shocked at it.

But I'm really thrilled that you're going after them. How can you stop this?

SEN. BILL HAGERTY (R-TN): Well, it was slipped into the American Rescue Plan. That's what they call that so-called COVID pandemic relief package that they shoved through on a completely partisan basis last March.

What they want to do is what they couldn't do with individuals. That's to try to access all of our transaction data $600 or greater. So they're going to force it onto small companies, because every third-party platform, whether it be Venmo, PayPal or the like, any transactions that exceed $600 in a year are going to have to be reported to the IRS, again, more invasion of our privacy.

And, Charles, you know the American public has entrusted the IRS with our with our private data and our privacy since Lois Lerner was at the Obama administration, and certainly not after ProPublica received the leaked IRS information during the Biden administration's first year that exposed individual taxpayers' private data just for partisan gain.

PAYNE: Right.

And, to that point, this is an attack on the smallest of small businesses.

HAGERTY: It is.

PAYNE: You have got hairdressers saying they won't be able to take tips, certainly not from Venmo.

Yes, it's going to disrupt the paperwork involved. But it also is a specious way of being able to track everyone, so it hurts small businesses, but it gives them access to every -- I mean, 600 bucks, that's the excuse to pry into our accounts, look into our bank accounts, and monitor everything.

And I have said this before. It reminds me of the China social scoring thing...

HAGERTY: Yes.

PAYNE: ... where they gather all this evidence on you, and, later on, it can be used as a weapon.

HAGERTY: Charles, you're exactly right.

It looks as though the Biden administration is looking to the Chinese Communist Party for their policies, in terms of dealing with Americans and our privacy. It's unacceptable. It's wrong. This is not going to be popular with America at all.

Now that we have found out what's in it, my legislation will strip it out. And that's exactly where we need to be back, back to something we can trust with the IRS.

I questioned Treasury Secretary Yellen after the ProPublica leak. I asked her, when was the IRS going to be held accountable? We still haven't had any accountability for the leak of private individual information last year by this administration.

PAYNE: Yes.

HAGERTY: We certainly don't need to be moving in this direction.

PAYNE: It's just a giant, opaque machine.

And, of course, they would love to add 80,000 more agents to that, which is a scary proposition for everyone.

HAGERTY: Yes.

PAYNE: Senator, with the IRS, we did hear, though, they're going to drop this controversial facial recognition plan for taxpayers.

And I guess that is a good start, although, at the bottom, it says they are looking at other alternatives, which be careful what you ask for. A little worried where they may go from here.

HAGERTY: I know.

Again, it's back to what you said. It's just like the Chinese Communist Party. They're setting the goalposts here for this administration, video surveillance, invading our privacy, monitoring every transaction that we do. This really does scarily sound like the Chinese Communist Party. And that's where the Biden administration wants to take us.

PAYNE: How do you feel about the bill that you -- that you have worked on here, something that can happen maybe after the midterms?

HAGERTY: Yes, I think it may even happen before, because even my Democrat colleagues, as they look at this and as they look to their constituents, this is not popular in America, Charles.

If they intend to implement this through this American Rescue Plan, it's going to receive a lot of backlash in Democrat states, as well as Republican ones.

PAYNE: Yes.

And a lot of those young folks who are just starting businesses are going to hate it.

Senator Bill Hagerty, thank you very much. Appreciate you.

HAGERTY: Great to be with, Charles.

PAYNE: Meantime, new photos coming in from Georgia of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams appearing maskless at a recent school visit where the kids were all wearing masks.

To FOX's Matt Finn with the latest there -- Matt.

MATT FINN, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: The new pictures published by OutKick appear to show Abrams unmasked in an indoor gymnasium at Glennwood Elementary in Decatur, Georgia, last week.

Abrams is unmasked as many young students in the same room have their masks on. Another new picture appears to show Abrams up close with other adults standing shoulder to shoulder. And Abrams is the only person without a mask.

Decatur area schools currently require staff and students to wear masks. This comes as the Democratic gubernatorial candidate is facing tremendous backlash for a viral picture she posted online last week showing Abrams in the same school seated unmasked surrounded by students in their masks.

Abrams later deleted that picture and accused opponents of a political attack during Black History Month. Abrams has been a very vocal supporter of mask mandates. We have reached out to Abrams for comment -- Charles.

PAYNE: Thank you very much.

Well, the excuses are amazing.

Those kids, by the way, look so unhappy. Thank you so much, Matt.

Hey, you're paying, and, apparently, you're also moving. What the great migration from high-tax blue states could be telling us about the midterms.

And what's the holdup with the sanctions on Russia? Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman with an update on where we stand -- next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Follow the money, we all have heard that one. But how about this, fleeing states that are taking your money?

There's a new report from the Tax Foundation showing a growing number of Americans are leaving high-tax blue states and moving to low-tax states. So what does this mean for the economy and the midterms?

Let's get the read from Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office.

Doug, we have been hearing about this, but it's pretty obvious that this is happening. First, let me ask, before you get into the economics of it. I'm always hearing Florida, maybe Tennessee, Texas, but what -- but there are more states, right? I mean, they're fleeing to other states as well.

DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, FORMER CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE DIRECTOR: Sure.

You're going to see a big growth in Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas. We're seeing those as places that have good business climates, low taxes, and they have seen very rapid growth over the past year.

PAYNE: What's the -- what do you think, then, in terms of economics? Obviously, we talk about the need for people to fuel an economy.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Sure.

PAYNE: Certainly, if you have already got a great economy, this must help also.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, I think it's pretty simple. Democrats might breathe a sigh of relief that the Build Back Better effort seems to have been stalled. And that's where most of the tax increases are. So that's what they were afraid of.

But if you look at those places that have high taxes, they're also places that, as I said, have bad climates for start-up and growth in businesses. They were the ones where growth in jobs has been the slowest. They're also the kinds of places that held on to the U.I., the extra U.I. bonus for the longest and had the slowest recovery as a result.

And so the mix of policies that are in those states is exactly the mixes that's been proposed in Congress. It's a recipe for bad economic performance. And voters are going to figure that out.

PAYNE: I mean, I think they -- well, I don't want to say I think they are, because we have seen where there has been a large migration from red -- blue states to red states, and these red states start to become purplish with respect to voting.

And I find that to be extremely somewhat ironic, but also confusing. You fled a state because the taxes are too high and the regulations too onerous for you to start a business, your paycheck was cut in half, there was no upward mobility, and you went to a new state and you voted the same way.

Can we actually start to see the maps change because of this?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, we will see the maps change.

I think people draw the wrong conclusions. They move because there's a job. They move because housing prices are reasonable. And they say, OK, let's try to live in there. And what they don't understand is that the reason the housing prices are reasonable is the regulation is not overbearing, and people can actually build houses and build apartments, and there are jobs because the business climate is a good one.

And they mistakenly think that somehow the government does that. And they get to the new state and they vote the same way they did before. They will eventually learn, or they will keep moving, because that recipe doesn't work. And the states are proving it again and again and again.

PAYNE: Meanwhile, have these states that everyone's fleeing, have they crossed the Rubicon?

I mean, is it too late for them to start cutting taxes? Is it too late for them to remove restrictions? They have got the highest unemployment rates. They have got everything wrong, and yet it feels like they have gone so far down this rabbit hole. How can they even reverse it?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, of course, it's not too late. It can be done.

I think the big opposition is that those states tend to have very big public sectors, a lot of unionized public sector employees, a lot of big pension problems in those states. Those are very hard to reverse quickly.

And they tend to be a reason that the government stays too big, the taxes stay too high.

PAYNE: Right.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: And it's a real danger for places like Illinois, New York.

I mean, that's a concern.

PAYNE: Doug, just moments ago, Chipotle posted their results. They beat expectations. They were helped by price hikes, which shows us, at least for now, people are willing to pay more.

The question, though, is, when is the breaking point?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, they're willing to pay more because they their wages are going up. But the wages aren't quite going up as fast as the prices.

And as this sinks in and as the sort of about $2 trillion of stimulus money that people carried over from the past couple of years gets eaten away, the rubber hits the road. And until real wages are rising, wages faster than prices, you're going to see the household sector retrench.

That will be the inevitable result unless we change things.

PAYNE: You feel like that it has to be right around the corner, right? I mean, savings look like they're starting to dwindle here.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Yes.

I mean, it was an enormous savings boom, because people really couldn't go out and consume services in particular. And that's -- that savings rate has gone back to more typical numbers. The accumulation of 2020 and 2021 has been eaten away. And we're back to sort of, what can you live off of in your day job and the raises that you're getting there?

PAYNE: Yes.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Those raises aren't big enough for people to continue to spend at the rates we'd like him to. That's the issue.

PAYNE: Yes. And we will be reminded of that Thursday when the CPI number comes out.

Doug, thank you very much my friend.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Yes.

PAYNE: All right, folks, a new plea from a major airline CEO to stop these outbursts. Why what Delta is urging has some folks debating.

And is something Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman is pushing going to create a no-fly list for migrants? The senator is here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Getting unruly may get you on a no-fly list. That's what Delta Air Lines wants. The DOJ confirming it received Delta's letter asking the department to do just that.

David Spunt is at the DOJ with the details -- David.

DAVID SPUNT, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Charles. Interesting story.

Attorney General Merrick Garland a few months ago, around Thanksgiving, told authorities to prosecute those who were unruly on flights. Now, as you mentioned, Delta CEO Ed Bastian is taking it a step further, directly reaching out to Attorney General Garland asking him to create this no-fly list.

According to the FAA last year, it was the worst year on record for unruly passengers, with nearly 6,000 incidents. The majority dealt with mask- related issues.

We want to show you one specific case where a man was restrained by the flight team after allegedly groping two female flight attendants. He was arrested and charged. Just under 6,000 unruly passengers reports, according to the FAA, a little bit over 4,200 mask-related incidents, a little under 1,100 investigations initiated, 350 enforcement actions initiated.

In his letter to the attorney general, Bastian wrote in part: "We are requesting that you support our efforts with respect to the much-needed step of putting any person convicted of an onboard disruption on a national comprehensive unruly passenger no-fly list that would bar that person from traveling on any commercial air carrier."

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg this week seems to be OK with the idea. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PETE BUTTIGIEG, U.S. TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY: I think we need to take a look at it.

Look, the airlines are often doing their own internal no-fly lists. Some of them have spoken about maybe coordinating on that. And we're looking at these policy recommendations as well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SPUNT: But Paul Hudson, the president of a Flyers Rights group, says a no- fly list is really somewhat of a slippery slope, Charles.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PAUL HUDSON, PRESIDENT, FLYERS RIGHTS: We think That the punishment should fit the crime or the infraction. A permanent banning of air travel would really be extreme.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SPUNT: Again, the attorney general does have the letter. No word how he will respond -- Charles.

PAYNE: David, thank you very much.

So, with Russia ramping up over there, what's the holdup with sanctions here?

Republican Senator Rob Portman is next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Lawmakers looking to put a united front against Russia. But after weeks of talking, there's still no bipartisan sanctions bill in sight.

We will ask Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Rob Portman why that is in a moment, but first to FOX News correspondent Chad Pergram on Capitol Hill with the very latest -- Chad.

CHAD PERGRAM, FOX NEWS CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, Charles.

The sides are stuck as the Russian threat looms. There's a holdup now over how the Senate would handle Nord Stream 2. Senators have discussed the bill for weeks.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL): There seems to have been over the weekend some falloff on some of this. Maybe the administration has kind of weighed with Senate Democrats and pulled them back off a couple positions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PERGRAM: I just asked Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer what happens if Russia invades and the Senate is still dithering on the sanctions bill.

Schumer says the bill must have bipartisan support.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. CHARLES SCHUMER (D-NY): It is moving along. But there are still a couple of areas of disagreement.

The basic view of many on our side and of the White House is, to pass a full, strong sanctions bill before any invasion and, God forbid, there be an invasion, would take away the disincentive from Russia invading.

So that's one of the issues.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PERGRAM: Officials just briefed senators last week on the Russian threat, and it seemed like the sanctions bill was coming together.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): But the briefing, I think, will accelerate the bipartisan sanctions package.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PERGRAM: But that's not the case.

Schumer would not guarantee the Senate would pass the bill before the President's Day recess. Schumer says he pushed an agreement during a reception last night at the embassy of Germany -- Charles.

PAYNE: Chad, thank you very much.

So, what is holding up the bill?

Joining me now, Senate Foreign Relations member Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman.

Senator, thanks for joining us.

We just heard a few sound bites there, Senator Schumer saying that they want a strong sanctions bill. But he also underscored the notion it should be in place before an invasion.

What's going on?

SEN. ROB PORTMAN (R-OH): Well, of course, it should. We should act quickly. And we should do it in a bipartisan way.

Look, what the Russians and Vladimir Putin in particular are looking at is, what will the consequences be if we do this? And, remember, they went into a part of Ukraine called Crimea eight years ago, and the reaction, frankly, was not that strong.

The sanctions we put in place were relatively weak. And I think they might be expecting the same thing this time. That's not what's going to happen. The sanctions will be strong. And the question is, more precisely, what will they be, and what else can we put in this package in terms of helping Ukraine on cyberattacks, which happen every day, Charles, as you know?

I mean, attacks are occurring not just on government Web sites, but also on their critical infrastructure, on disinformation constantly being flooded into Ukraine. We can help there pushing back and providing the correct and truthful information, and then military assistance.

So it's not just about sanctions. It's also about helping the Ukrainians be able to protect themselves, not putting U.S. troops in harm's way, but providing them the weapons, so that they can help with -- we could help them with regard to tanks, with regard to aircraft and with regard to ships.

So, this should be a combined package. And I hope we can get it done, even in the next several -- several days here.

PAYNE: I'm sure you would be reluctant to say exactly what's the holdup.

But it's hard for folks watching to understand, because this is such a bipartisan effort, that anything would be a stumbling block or a deal- breaker.

PORTMAN: Well, frankly, it's about the sanctions. And it's about how tough the sanctions should be generally, and it's about whether the sanctions should be all after the fact, in other words, should there be an incursion, should the Russians make a terrible mistake and actually go into Ukraine, or should there be some now for what they're already doing?

I just mentioned some of the aggressive, unwarranted actions that they're taking. And then, finally, it's about Nord Stream 2.

PAYNE: Right.

PORTMAN: Remember, this is the pipeline that Republicans as a whole believed it's a bad idea in the first place. And now it's a terrible idea, given what's happened with regard to the buildup of 120,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border.

So, those are some of the differences. But I'm hopeful we can iron them out.

PAYNE: Right.

PORTMAN: In general, there is a consensus. There is a unified voice that what Russia is doing with these aggressive actions is absolutely unacceptable, and that we want to stand by the people of Ukraine.

So, I think it'd be smart of us to come together and issue a really strong statement, get the House to pass it, get the president to sign it. And that would just add to what's already happening, which is really a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance.

The NATO countries in particular are for the most part standing up and helping. And I think Vladimir Putin may be surprised that one of the consequences of what he's done is to strengthen NATO, not to weaken it.

PAYNE: Senator, Nord Stream 2, President Biden has now thrown that into the mix as a possible retaliation.

But what about Germany, their role here? Are they stuffing up? What are they saying about that? Obviously, I don't know that they would agree with that.

PORTMAN: Well, Nord Stream 2 is, as I said, a bad idea in the first place. It's Russian gas going to Germany and Europe. And Russia has traditionally used these kinds of energy pipelines as political weapons.

And so you don't want to be dependent on Russia. I think a lot of people in Europe agree with that. But yet they're having a real energy problem there. So what we'd like Germany to do is really three things. Number one is to step up on working with us on the sanctions that would be imposed should there be an invasion.

Second is specifically, on Nord Stream 2, to say publicly what President Biden said yesterday publicly -- and I appreciate that he did -- which is that, hey, if this guy comes into Ukraine, if we have an incursion into Ukraine, we're going to stop this pipeline.

Now, we would do it through sanctions, which would be very substantial sanctions against the pipeline contractors and so on. And, then, third, what we'd love to see Germany do is to let countries provide arms to Ukraine. Ukraine is not asking for other countries to come in and fight for them. They are asking for help.

And one example is, the Estonians want to send them these Howitzers that were made in East Germany a few decades ago, and Germany still retains the right under a license agreement to say, hey, you got to get approval from us to send these to Ukraine. Ukraine wants them. Estonia wants to send them. Germany is not providing the approval.

So I hope they will provide that approval soon.

PAYNE: Right.

PORTMAN: I hope they will provide other approvals, and we can all work together on this to avoid this terrible possibility, which is that, again, Vladimir Putin would make a bad mistake and go into Ukraine.

Think of the lives that would be lost.

PAYNE: Sure.

PORTMAN: Think of the impact on the economies. And think of the instability it would cause Europe and the message all around the world, in terms of a country coming in, an authoritarian country taking over a democracy here in 21st century.

PAYNE: Especially as the West kind of watched this, so there's a sense of urgency.

But I want to switch gears here for a moment, Senator, because you're also introducing a bill to stop TSA from accepting arrest warrants issued to migrants as valid identification.

PORTMAN: Yes. Yes.

PAYNE: Tell us about this effort.

PORTMAN: Well, we found out that TSA is actually accepting, in some cases, from migrants their arrest warrants as a valid I.D.

And that's sort of silly on the face of it. But one of the real problems is that it's based on data that's not necessarily accurate. So, when someone comes across the border illegally, there may be an arrest warrant that's written out based on information that the migrant is providing.

We don't know if that is accurate or not. We don't have a database to build a check that. So it's certainly not a good idea to rely on that as the as the real I.D., which they're requiring now from all the rest of us, a secure I.D. in order to get on an airplane in the United States.

So, I don't think this is a tough call. I would hope TSA would change their policy.

PAYNE: Yes.

Senator, it was mind-boggling when we first heard this story. It's -- glad to hear -- see that someone is doing something about it.

And good luck with the negotiations. And we always appreciate your time.

Thank you so much, sir.

PORTMAN: Thanks, Charles. Always great to be on with you.

Take care.

PAYNE: And, by the way, folks, there was a communique that Jake Sullivan did get a chance to speak with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

They're working on three paths, a diplomatic solution. They reiterated their commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty, and also maybe the ability to defend the eastern flank, should Russia become very aggressive.

That will do it for me. Thank you so much for watching.

Make sure you catch me every day, FOX Business, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. The market is all over the place. Trying to keep you in there.

Meanwhile, "The Five" starts now.

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