This is a rush transcript from "Special Report," September 14, 2021. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

BAIER: Controversy over booster shots, about data coming from the CDC, and now a new study from Harvard, Tufts, and the Veterans Affairs agency, Veterans Affairs department. Our most reliable pandemic number is losing meaning. The study suggests that roughly half of all hospitalized patients showing up on COVID data dashboards in 2021 may have been admitted for another reason entirely or had only a mild presentation of the disease.

Meantime, you look at the latest polls from Quinnipiac, the president's job approval numbers upside down, 42 approve, disprove 50 percent. And for the first time the disapprove number slightly higher, basically tied, but still slightly higher on the issue of response to the coronavirus. Next slide 49, 48. There you have it.

Let's bring in our panel, Mollie Hemingway, senior editor at "The Federalist," Juan Williams is a FOX News analyst, and Guy Benson, political editor at Townhall.com, host of "The Guy Benson Show" on FOX News Radio. Guy, I guess there is this frustration about data and policy decisions based on data, and are we getting the right data.

GUY BENSON, POLITICAL EDITOR, TOWNHALL.COM: I think it's a very legitimate question. I think the study that you just cited about hospitalizations is very important, because there is a distinction, it would seem, maybe there should be when it comes to crafting policy, between people who show up on a hospital because they have COVID symptoms and they feel like they are bad enough that they need to be hospitalized, that's a serious thing. Of course, that happens on a wide scale. There are people in ICUs, that's not a myth.

But there are many others, it would seem a large percentage based on this study, 40, 45 percent potential in some cases, where people show up to the hospital for other reasons incidental to COVID, has nothing to do with COVID, but they're required to take a test. They test positive. That is counted in the big bucket nationally as a COVID hospitalization, whether it's actually caused by COVID or they're being treated for COVID or not. I think that does muddy the picture when it comes to policy and what direction we should head because we need to have a clearer sense of what the pandemic looks like at any given moment. And it seems like those numbers, a very key metric, hospitalizations, have been in some cases perhaps misleading for months.

BAIER: Yes, and some of them have been the highest in some states that we've seen since the winter. Just to be clear, it's Harvard Medical School, Tufts Medical Center, and Veteran Affairs Health Care System, which, Mollie, brings me to this amazing op-ed in "The Wall Street Journal" by Dr. Makary. He writes "American public health agencies should be producing data on breakthrough infections, boosters, and natural immunity. But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has failed to provide the information needed to inform a sound COVID tragedy. The CDC's failure to report meaningful data has left policymakers flying blind. In the absence of good date to answer the basic questions Americans have been asking, political opinions have filled vacuum. Strong data might have prevented much of the polarization over COVID." He goes on to cite, we have been making policy decisions based on data come from Israel, coming from India, and other places.

MOLLIE HEMINGWAY, SENIOR EDITOR, "THE FEDERALIST": Strong data would have prevented a lot of the politicization. But I can't help but think that some of the reason why we haven't had good data is because people have been using the global pandemic as a means to exert political power. And the great example is what Dr. Makary is saying right there about not just having good information on how many people have natural immunity. We know we want people to be vaccinated and/or have natural immunity in order to slow down the spread as we move from this pandemic being something that's very horrific to deal with to just something you deal with every year like the flu. That data has not been shared.

But I think it's because it's been politically advantageous, certainly the Democratic Party has benefited quite a bit from this electorally, being able to push through spending packages. And so you see them pushing the pandemic, pushes boosters, again based on bad data, while the rest of the country is engaging in college football games each weekend and moving on as we have gotten through a lot of the natural immunity or vaccination with this.

BAIER: And obviously, Juan, the natural immunity part has not been a big part of the messaging as far as this administration. But your thoughts?

JUAN WILLIAMS, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think there is a clear impetus on the part of the Biden administration to say to people who want maximum protection, people who have been vaccinated but want to make sure that they have maximum protection, that the Biden administration has an ample supply of vaccine and a way to distribute it, and they're ready to go.

But the problem is that the science hasn't been there to indicate that there is a need for these boosters. And I think they need to wait on the science. So when you look at this, I tend to agree that the number one message still is get the vaccine. Those people who aren't vaccinated, as you know, 11 times more likely to die from COVID. But they are also a risk to themselves, to infect others, and particularly children. And I think that's a real problem.

But on the boosters, I think that the Biden administration tried to get ahead of it, and I think that that's why people are saying, wait a second, you were making maybe a political statement when you should have been making a scientific statement.

BAIER: All right, and quickly, the politics of today and this hearing with Secretary of State Blinken. Guy?

BENSON: Well, I think that it was a much more serious hearing. More bipartisan in nature. The criticism was pretty blunt from both sides of the aisle compared to yesterday, was much more partisan in the house. I still think perhaps the biggest news to come out of these last two days was the secretary of state finally admitting that there are thousands of Americans stranded in Afghanistan when you don't parse this out and you include legal permanent residents, green card holders, i.e. Americans, in the tally.

BAIER: The numbers and data. When we come back, panel stand by, tomorrow's headlines with you all. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BAIER: Finally tonight, a look at tomorrow's headlines with the panel. Mollie, first to you.

HEMINGWAY: Yes. Leading Republicans call on General Milley to be fired for making secret phone calls to China in an attempt to undermine President Trump and violate our constitutional chain of command.

BAIER: We'll follow that story. Juan?

WILLIAMS: Tomorrow's headline, Newsom easily turns back recall effort. I think that a lot of people are going to see this on the Democratic side as a test drive for the midterms next year and see it as putting some wind in their sails.

BAIER: We'll have results tonight. Guy?

BENSON: Well, I suspect Juan's headline is probably correct based on the polls, and if Governor Newsom does prevail and is not recalled tonight, I wonder if he might go celebrate at the French Laundry. I've heard he likes that place.

(LAUGHTER)

BAIER: I think so. Maybe with a mask. All right, panel, thank you.

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