'Special Report' All-Star Panel on Russia-Ukraine escalating conflict

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Trey Gowdy questions effectiveness of sanctions as Russia-Ukraine tensions rise

'Special Report' panel discuss Putin’s recent comments on Ukraine and where they think his intentions lie.

This is a rush transcript from "Special Report," February 21, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): For us, Ukraine is not just a neighboring country. It is integral part of our own cultural history of the spiritual space. Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia, more precisely, Bolshevik communist Russia.

WILLIAM INBODEN, CLEMENTS CENTER FOR NATIONAL SECURITY: Putin at the end of the day is a rational actor, is going to take everything he can that he thinks he can get away with, which I think there needs to be more clear deterrence there.

JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: It's very clear what Mr. Putin is doing. He has continued to add military capability. We continue to believe that he is acting in a way consistent with a man who has decided that he wants to invade Ukraine again. And if he does, this will be a war of choice.

GEN. KEITH KELLOGG (RET), FORMER PENCE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Putin appreciates strength. And we're not portraying strength at all. This whole idea about well, let's talk again, let's talk again, I think is absolute folly. It's not going to work.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: Vladimir Putin today in this speech that really echoed pre-Soviet maps, saying that Ukraine essentially is Russia's. And that he was going to move to declare independence for these two eastern separatist regions. And if you put up the map, you can see it on the map in the green section there, Donetsk and Luhansk, kind of the eastern section of Ukraine.

And we are getting reports tonight that military transport vehicles and tanks are rolling into those areas. Put up the map in a second -- there you go. And that's called the Donbas region, and it's right there along the border with Russia and Ukraine. You see Crimea at the bottom. That's what Russia invaded and took over in 2014, just to give you a sense.

And what that means is really a bigger question about whether Putin goes on to Ukraine, the yellow section there, and on to Kyiv.

Let's bring in our panel, Ben Domenech is publisher of "The Federalist," Harold Ford Jr., former Tennessee Congressman, CEO of Empowerment and Inclusion Capital, and Trey Gowdy, former Congressman from South Carolina. Ben, we're trying to get a grip of the big picture of what this means and this action, this speech from Putin and what we're hearing about military movements already. The administration has now moved State Department personnel out of Ukraine, and they are saying that they are going to be relocating in Poland. That sends its own signal. Where do you think we are tonight?

BEN DOMENECH, PUBLISHER, "THE FEDERALIST": I think that we are on a track that a lot of people have been warning against for a long time because they understand Vladimir Putin for what he is. And the connections that were running throughout his speech today I think go all the way back to when he was a young official working during the fall of the Berlin Wall, burning all those those documents so that they didn't fall into the wrong hands when he was working for the KGB.

There was real emotion, I felt like, in seeing his comments about those who would deny Russia's right to assert themselves here. And I agree with Jennifer Griffin's statements earlier that I don't think that there is any reason we should expect him to stop with this region. I think he is going to roll as far as he wants to. And the approach that this White House has used in terms of deterrence has proven to be a total waste. You can't deter people after the fact. You have to deter them ahead the fact. And what was coming here today has been telegraphed, as I said, for quite some time.

BAIER: There is a different perspective from a senator who just was at that security conference in Germany, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut was kind of painting a different picture that Putin is essentially backed into a corner. He did this video that he put out on Twitter. Take a listen to a piece of that, Trey.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. CHRIS MURPHY, (D-CT): Putin hoped that this threatened invasion, all of these troops Ukraine border, would upend Ukraine's government, collapse it, or maybe create tension and fissures within NATO. But none of that happened. In fact, the opposite happened. Putin has only two ways out -- back down or proceed with an expensive, costly, and potentially disastrous invasion of the largest country in Europe. How is Putin holding all the cards?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: I'm not sure the staff needed to put the music in the background there, Trey. But his take is that there is no -- there is not a lot of good options for Putin. But he is acting tonight.

TREY GOWDY, FORMER SOUTH CAROLINA REPRESENTATIVE: Actually, I thought the music was better than his analysis. My analysis is simpler, which is when your enemies confess, you should believe them. And what he is saying is he wants to return to the Soviet Union, what he perceives as the glory days. So anything else he does is a pretext. We know what his motivation is.

And I am dumbfounded, as we sit here tonight, Bret, the only folks who have been sanctioned have been part of Ukraine. Ukraine has been sanctioned as of tonight, but not Russia. I need somebody to explain to me why we're not using sanctions to deter conduct that we don't want to happen.

BAIER: You're right. It's only sanctioning that part of the separatist regions tonight, at least so far, and they are hinting that there is more to come. But the action is already happening. The independence speech by Putin already happened. And now there is reports of military movement. We'll be able to confirm that shortly, and we will hear from the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, we're told, in just a few minutes.

Lindsey Graham put out a tweet, "Putin's decision to declare eastern Donetsk and Luhansk as independent regions with Ukraine is both a violation of the Minsk Agreements and a declaration of war against the people of Ukraine." Ian Bremmer says "Putin telling the world he is going to recognize and invade, defend the sovereign territory of another country once he makes that declaration, negotiations have failed." Harold?

HAROLD FORD JR., FORMER TENNESSEE REPRESENTATIVE: So I think now is not the time to try to settle political scores within the administration. We have to be united here. But I think the criticism and the constructive criticism from tonight's panel is something the White House should listen to. It was astonishing to listen to Putin rewrite, revise, and perhaps imagine a history that was not. But more importantly he has, and is.

I think Jen griffin, to Ben's point, had it exactly right. This is a larger ambition, a larger vision than what the president -- than what President Putin shared tonight. Chris Murphy, the music needs to be lost, but I think there something is to be said there. There could be a reality to what he is saying. I think the White House and the president's occupation with dealing with NATO and keeping us resolved and united and strong may be the greatest deterrence. We'll have to wait until the morning to see how the president and his team handle what may happen overnight in Ukraine.

But one thing is for certain. I think if you gave the White House a grade up until today before Putin's speech you would have to give them an A. But all bets are off now and all grades are out. We are going to have to grade this day by day, week by week going forward after listening to Putin this afternoon.

BAIER: OK, Ben, we're just getting word that the U.N. Security Council will hold an emergency meeting Monday night, tonight, on Ukraine at the request of the Ukrainians. We'll see what the U.N. Security Council adds to the picture.

DOMENECH: It's a situation here where I think we have to understand the timing of this. Vladimir Putin clearly is betting on what he believes to be the strong horse in a powerful and rising China. He is betting against the forces of NATO and of the United States. And that's something that really is founded in sort of his own origin story, his own mythos that he has advocated for to the people of Russia. And I think the simple fact is I disagree with Harold. I think the grade that I would give this White House when it comes to this as in terms of the context of their entire foreign agenda is it's a lot of happy talk. I just don't think that it's something that actually corresponds with reality.

FORD: And what would do differently? What would you do differently, Ben? Would you have us send troops to Ukraine?

DOMENECH: You have to advance deterrence objectives and be serious about them. You can't go back to the red line strategy which failed so terribly in Syria. You actually have to take steps that deter in advance of things like this happening, especially when it's been telegraphed so clearly all along. And I think that that's something that you can look back and assess in the future.

BAIER: Harold, I have got to run. I promise you I'll give you more time.

FORD: Your own guest earlier said, the chief of staff said he would not have done this. So this is a great term paper analysis, but this is real world stuff here.

BAIER: It is real world, and we'll be talking about it for a number of days. Panel, thank you so much.

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