Updated

This is a rush transcript of "Special Report with Bret Baier" on February 2, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

JOHN ROBERTS: That was the Pentagon briefing earlier with our Jen Griffin asking John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesperson, whether or not there is any indication that Russia would go past Ukraine and into surrounding nations, which happened to be NATO nations.

Let's bring in our panel, Kimberley Strassel, a member of the editorial board at "The Wall Street Journal," Tom Bevan, Real Clear Politics cofounder and president, and Amy Walter, publisher and editor in chief of the "Cook Political Report."

I think Jen Griffin asked the key question there, that if there was no indication that Putin would go beyond Ukraine's borders and into neighboring NATO nations, why are we sending troops to that area? Kim, you want to start us off?

KIMBERLEY STRASSEL, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": Yes. It's great that we are sending the message that we are going to honor our Article Five commitments and be there for NATO. But was that really ever in doubt?

The question is Ukraine, a sovereign nation, which Russia is threatening, and the reality is that sanctions should have been already put in place with the threat of more. Lethal aid should have been going there weeks and weeks ago. The president ought to be on the phone with his European allies every day with unified statements of strength against Putin. None of that has happened. And this just kind of masks the fact that Washington is spinning its wheels.

ROBERTS: One of the things that John Kirby did respond to today was a report carried in a Spanish newspaper about a leaked document that was the United States' response to Russia, apparently with an offer to Russia. Here is Tom, what was on the table, or what was off the table. What was off the table was a bilateral European security arrangement with Russia and any guarantee that Ukraine never joins NATO, they basically said no, that's not going to happen. But what was on the table was a possible arrangement for Russia to be able to verify that there were no tomahawk missiles in Romania and Poland as part of the AEGIS Ashore program. Putin apparently rejected that. But it looks like the U.S. is trying to give him a negotiation that he might be able to accept.

TOM BEVAN, COFOUNDER, REAL CLEAR POLITICS: They are, but the administration seems a bit lost to me. Jen Psaki was asked today at the White House press briefing that Biden had said he wasn't going to move troops into eastern flanked countries, NATO countries, just a few weeks ago. Now he has done it. What has changed? He didn't have a good answer for that. She was asked, what is the administration looking to spree Putin that will allow these troops to be drawn down? She didn't have an answer for that.

So I think the administration is really sort of fumbling about, trying try piece together some sort of strategy. They want to show strength but at the same time they are trying to get Putin to deescalate. And it seems to me just sort of grasping at straws.

ROBERTS: Amy Walter, let's get you to venture into analyzing Russian politics here. There's comments from Putin today that he said that he was being, quote, screwed over by NATO, that the United States is trying to draw Russia into a war. How do you read that? Is that a pretext to invasion, or is that him looking for a possible offramp by saying hey, it's not my fault, it's them and maybe trying to find a way out?

AMY WALTER, NATIONAL EDITOR, "COOK POLITICAL REPORT": Right. Well, John, I think the reality is, Russia has been very successful. Putin has been very successful in doing the following. One, highlighting the tensions within NATO, within the European allies within NATO, stressing or highlighting some of the tensions between the United States and our allies in Europe. And then, of course, division within the United States about how to respond to this.

So, in that sense, there is success, and the more that the NATO alliance looks -- again, putting troops on the border of -- borders of those countries that we all were just discussing, sends some strength, at least it looks strong. But it's pretty clear that there are underlying tensions that are significant and that were exposed by Putin's actions on border of Ukraine.

ROBERTS: You have got to wonder, though, if you are Vladimir Putin and you're looking at those troop movements. Do you say to yourself, they are not going to go into Ukraine, and I only want to go into Ukraine, so they are not really that much of a deterrent.

I want to change gears here. The news yesterday at about this time, that Johns Hopkins study, which has really landed like a bombshell that there was only a 0.2 percent reduction in COVID deaths because of all of the lockdowns that we experienced. But listen to what Anthony Fauci said about that two years ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF MEDICAL ADVISER: The fact that we shut down when we did, and the rest of the world did, has saved hundreds of millions of infections, and millions of lives.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Kimberley Strassel, it would appear that Johns Hopkins is in disagreement with the good doctor.

STRASSEL: Yes. Just one more statement from Anthony Fauci that you can't trust. Look, it's great that we have a study saying this, but I would also note, John, that you could go all the way back when we were experiencing those second and third waves, and look at the statistics and data coming out. Look at those curves, and it was clear that there was no difference between blue states and red states and those that were using these political cudgels with masks and lockdowns versus those that were not.

I would also like to just throw out there, where do all the scientists who way back a couple of years ago that signed the Great Barrington Declaration questioning lockdowns and some of these stringent measures, where do they get their reputation back now that science is catching up with their work?

ROBERTS: One of the things that I was wondering about, Tom, is Dr. Robert Redfield has come out and said look, in hindsight the lockdowns were wrong. We haven't heard the same from Dr. Fauci or other political leaders in states who implemented those lockdowns with great exhilaration almost. Do you expect that we're going to hear them say oops?

(LAUGHTER)

BRUCE: No, there hasn't been a whole lot of introspection or reflection from government officials and elected officials on the damage that their policies have done. Kimberley is right. There were plenty of people who were warning -- we didn't even have a discussion about this. I think the government, a lot of elected officials panicked, did what they thought was right in the moment, but did it impulsively without thinking through the damage.

And the further we get away from this, the more we are learning about the damage that we have done, not only to businesses but to children, masking them, locking down schools, the learning loss, all of the things. And I think history is not going to look kindly on the way that we handled this pandemic in terms of how much damage we did do across our society by the lockdowns.

ROBERTS: So, Amy, where is the politics on this heading now? If we look to European nations, they are taking off the restrictions off, and yet in places like New York state and California, they are still locked down tight.

WALTER: So, in a perfect world, it would have gone something like this. This is a first pandemic in 100 years. It's a very dynamic virus that mutates. So, we respond in kind, and we learn things as we go through a pandemic. And then health officials say we have learned something new. Here is our advice, and we adjust accordingly.

But we don't live in that world. We live in one in which it's incredibly polarized and incredibly political. And the idea that when somebody gives you news that no longer comports with your own priors that you are going to change that behavior, that just doesn't happen now. And so we are moving very, very quickly on this. History is going to be very curious, Tom, because I think when this is all said and done 20 years from now, there is a lot we're going to look back at, and a lot of people made statements that maybe they will regret, or other that were quite prescient.

ROBERTS: All right, last topic here, and that is the challenge to the mask mandate, the opt out mask mandate in the state of Virginia that weigh implemented by Governor Glenn Youngkin as one of his first orders of business when he was inaugurated. Listen to what Stephanie Lundquist Arora, Fairfax County parent, said about the challenges to this opt out policy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHANIE LUNDQUIST-ARORA, PARENT: The thing that I love about this executive order is the same thing that I love about the Bill of Rights. You are putting power back into the hands of people. Is this really about masks? I'm not sure that it is. I think this is about tyranny versus freedom. I think the mask symbolizes control now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Kimberley, I know that this is an issue of which you have some definite opinions here. My question is you have got seven school districts challenging this. A lot of students are wearing cloth masks to school. The CDC says they are not particularly effective against Omicron. So what is this an argument about? Appearances?

STRASSEL: Yes, it does seem to be this at this point. The judge who heard this today, it was really notable that Youngkin's lawyers argued in court, they said look, governors have a lot of authority in situations like this. Nobody argued that Ralph Northam's orders were supposed to be followed. And just because there is a different name at the top doesn't mean that it's any less valid.

And so yes, he's trying to emancipate parents again and make the decision who may, in fact, know more about science than the scientists as we just had that discussion.

ROBERTS: Tom, quick thought?

BEVAN: It continues to be a flashpoint. You have schools now that are charging -- students who are showing up without masks with trespassing. It's going to get worse before it gets better, I think.

ROBERTS: Amy, 10 seconds. Some students in Loudoun County face suspension if they come without a mask.

WALTER: Right. But we also have to remember, there are communities, especially children with disabilities and their families, who also feel very, very strongly the risk that they are under. So this is about trying to balance, which we are not very good at doing in this moment, balancing those competing interests.

ROBERTS: Great discussion on a number of topics tonight. Panel, thank you so much. We will see you again soon.

Coming up next, going the distance and then some for a very worthy cause.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: Finally tonight, a SPECIAL REPORT salute.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Come on, boys. Come on.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Four veterans, 52 days, 3,000 miles, and more than $817,000 raised by the Florida based rower's group called Foar From Home. The Crew was raising awareness from U.S. servicemembers suffering from PTSD and mental health challenges by paddling from La Gomera, which is one of Spain's Canary Islands, all the way across the Atlantic to Antigua. Well- done Billy Cimino, Cameron Hansen, Paul Lore, and A.M. "Hupp" Huppman. Can you imagine?

Tomorrow on SPECIAL REPORT, Dr. Marty Makary joins us with the results of an exclusive study on natural immunity.

Thanks for watching SPECIAL REPORT. I'm John Roberts in for Bret Baier here in Washington. Jesse Watters now ready to paddle his way through "PRIMETIME." Hey, Jesse.


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